Afghanistan: America's Never Ending War!

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

US president Obama announced on Friday, that the combat role of the US troops in Afghanistan would be extended for another year and now much talked pullback would begin in as early as December 2015 provided this extension of US war pay some dividend within one year which seems highly unlikely. Under this new order now the US troops can conduct military operations without seeking approval from Kabul.

Question is, what actually compelled President Obama to expand the US troops combat role in Afghanistan when almost everyone was expecting a draw-down of major portion of US troops from Afghanistan? According to New York Time's report, the decision has been made as combat situation is not what the US had hoped for when cut off date of December 2014 was announced in May, earlier this year by President Obama.

"Mr. Obama’s order allows American forces to carry out missions against the Taliban and other militant groups threatening American troops or the Afghan government, a broader mission than the president described to the public earlier this year, according to several administration, military and congressional officials with knowledge of the decision. The new authorization also allows American jets, bombers and drones to support Afghan troops on combat missions.", reads NYT report.

It is common knowledge that Post 9/11 legislation done in Washington has empowered the private military contractors, manufacturers in the power corridors. For any US government, it would be almost impossible to disengage from military conflicts around the globe. This recent decision by President Obama would also benefit Military Industrial Complex (MIC) and Pentagon irrespective to its aftermath. This decision is being considered similar to the one President Obama had to make in 2009 to send 30,000 more troops in Afghanistan under the pressure of Pentagon. Last 5 years' progress in WoT shows that the surge of US troops in Afghanistan failed to achieve its stated goals of degrading, dismantling and destroying Al-Qaeda and Taliban. "We are going to dismantle and degrade their capabilities and ultimately dismantle and destroy their networks. It is my intention to finish the job." said President Obama in 2009 while announcing the surge in 2009. These bitter realities have played a key role in this latest decision by the White House despite the fact that the US economy has been rattled due to this prolonged Afghan/Iraq wars.

But the problem, for the Obama, is that after 5 years of surge, it is evident that the Obama's Af-Pak strategy failed both on the battlefield and on the negotiation table while, back in the US,  Democrats are going in general elections within the next two years, without attaining half of the goals they set for themselves in 2009 Af-Pak review. The results of mid term elections, recently held in various US States, also point towards the waning public support for this prolonged war. So, understandably, Democrats are desperate for a clear and decisive victory. But can extension of combat role of the US troops in Afghanistan achieve this?  In this backdrop, this new decision by President Obama demands some pondering on its after effects on the regional geopolitical landscape.

Cost of War:

How this decision would change the general complexion of WoT within one year? Would there be another extension to the combat role of the US troops in Afghanistan next year? These questions are critical as they are related to the military and financial rationale of prolonging this war. Back in 2009, it was estimated that the surge would cost $30 billion annually on additional 30,000 troops sent to Afghanistan. This cost was in addition to the cost of keeping earlier 68,000 US troops in Afghanistan sent in 2001 after 9/11. The studies conducted recently on cost of this war indicates that the cost would be in between 4 and 6 trillion dollars. This is a very high cost indeed even for a economy as big as America's.

South Asian geopolitics and US strategic interests:

With a strategic shift in power from the West to East, the geopolitical landscape in South Asia is also transforming rapidly. Emergence of China and Resurgence of Russia has affected the geopolitics in this region more than any other part of the world. South Asia is significant for global politics as majority of world population is inhabited here. Apart from China and Russia, India is also positioning itself to become a big and effective player in the region. In the Indian strategy of extending her influence in the region, military power projection and employment of "soft-power" are two most visible means.

The biggest historical dilemma with strategic power shift phenomenon from one region to another is that it is a slow, rare and infrequent and often a process full of conflicts and confrontations of various sorts. Historically, such power shifts always invited conflicts and recent strategic stand-off between China and the US in the Pacific rim of Indian Ocean around Japan, clearly indicates that this strategic flux of global economic and political power can get ugly very quickly. Both, rising and the existing powers (China and the US), have been locked in eyeball to eyeball situation and no one wants to blink. Despite the massive budget cuts and financial constrains, the US is compelled to maintain its current level of defense spending and even an increase in defense expenditure has been forced as the technological edge between the US and China is eroding fast. This explains the announcement of  Defense Innovation Initiative by the US Defense Secretary, Chuk Hegal, ealier this month. Under this initiative the US government would provide more funds for defense R&D (Research and Development). Main aim of this program is to develop new, smart weapons and various combat systems.

Afghanistan is strategically important. Not only for the US but more so for recently announced, "New Silk Route" strategy of China which aims for Asian economic integration. Chinese silk route goes around Afghanistan through Central Asia and Pakistan. This strategic infrastructure build up is a strategic Chinese attempt to secure her vulnerable energy supply lines and open up new markets for Chinese made products in Middle East, Europe and Central Asia by providing a cheap and efficient land-based transportation system. So, Chinese strategy for sustained oil supplies and Chinese export will not only expand her political influence in the region but would also contribute in Chinese military modernization. Chinese infrastructure developments in neighboring countries is going to get challenge US strategic interests in the region. This is why  energy experts like John Foster of Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives believe that the real reasons for Western military involvement may be largely hidden. "Rivalry for pipeline routes and energy resources reflects competition for power and control in the region.", stated Foster in one of his analysis on Why Afghanistan is strategically so important. Afghanistan lies in center of major energy and trade corridors in the region. It is going to be the root of TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India).        

Due to these Chinese overtures in the region, the Americans are compelled to maintain a strategic footprint in Afghanistan, directly or through a proxy like India, Recently, Indian interest in Afghanistan and the Indo-US strategic partnership in Afghanistan became vivid trends in South Asian geopolitics. Not only the US praises Indian role in Afghanistan but wants to expand this Indian foot print as well. This US desire was recently expressed by none other than Rear Admiral John Kirby, Pentagon Press Secretary. “I will leave it to India to decide and to speak to what they will contribute to regional security after the end of this year, but we certainly look to India’s leadership and their continued participation.”

Implications for Regional Stability:

US reliance on India as a strategic partner in Afghanistan to safeguard converging Indo-US strategic interests in the region has become a serious concern for Islamabad during the recent years. Pakistan Army Chief has already declared India a hurdle in ongoing War on Terror in FATA region bordering restive Afghanistan. And days after that, Pakistani Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif declared the US as 'unreliable' partner. Pakistani resentment stems from the fact that despite accepting the fact that India has been creating problems for Pakistan from Afghanistan, Post 9/11 US foreign policy has largely favored India in Afghanistan at the cost of Pakistan's security interests in Afghanistan.   

This decision is also critical for Pakistan's internal security which has been compromised by the violent elements/terrorists of TTP/Al-Qaeda hiding inside Afghanistan. Pakistan Army has been demanding a stiff action against these elements by Afghan government since many months but Kabul didn't accept Pakistani demands in this regard. A prolonged combat in Afghanistan would compound the already volatile security on open-boarder between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This is something Pakistan does not want but if the US withdraw from Afghanistan too early, that would be more catastrophic. Furthermore, -despite prevailing hostile local sentiments -the US forces in Afghanistan are part of UN approved international campaign against Taliban.

For Pakistani perspective, there is no military solution of Afghanistan and with her current military oriented strategic mindset the US would not be able to pull troops back.  It is imperative that the US forces must continue their support against insurgency but it is responsibility of Afghan government to seek a broad based political solution of the problem. For now, Pakistan would continue to face security threats from Western front and combat in FATA region would also continue to bleed Pakistan Army and State as well. For Pakistan it is critical to take initiative and unite all noticeable factions in a political process and Afghan stability must be the top strategic priority in Pak-US relations and strategic dialog as well. Even for the US, this is the only way out if Obama really want to disengage from America's never ending war!

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