Al-Qaeda Regrouping and Implications for Pakistan

By Tariq Niaz

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. This Sun Tzu philosophy should have been the key to take on the combined Arab Afghan tribal militancy instead after 9/11 US led allies preferred use of lethal force. It is almost five years now that Osama Bin Laden was killed in a US raid in Abbottabad. In its immediate aftermath there have been many more killings of Al-Qaeda’s key field commander considered number three and four in the ranking i.e. Abu Yahya Al-Libi and Attiya Abdur Rahman al Libi. After Osama, Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri the then number two came up as an obvious choice to lead Al-Qaeda which also initiated its transition from Arab to an Egyptian Akhwan dominated one. This change of leadership had drastic political and financial impact on the organization which was once flag bearer of militancy in the region.      

Osama trusted lieutenants used to be from Libya, Yemen Syria or Iraq and very few from Egypt. This Arab dominance was instrumental in creating massive appeal for funding and recruitment amongst tribal Arabs. Due to his Egyptian background, Dr Zawahiri failed to maintain this support base. Gradual loosening of command and control provided space to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which not only moved the center of struggle from Khorasan to the valley of two rivers but also took over effective control of flow of funds emanating from private sources in the entire Arab world. ISIS kept pace with emerging requirements of Sunni Salfi ideology and focused its war on near enemy against Al-Qaeda approach of far enemy first. Due to Pakistan Army operation in the lawless FATA and US sustained drone campaign in both Afghanistan and Pakistan strength of Pakistani Taliban was decimated. During 2014, Zawahiri announced formation of another franchise Al-Qaeda in Indian subcontinent (AQIS), an effort to spread militancy in Pakistan, India and beyond from the port city of Karachi. 

Formation of this new franchise raised many questions. Was Al-Qaeda shifting its focus from Afghanistan and Iran to Pakistan, India and beyond thus leaving its Afghan stronghold to ISIS? Had it purposely or under duress surrendered Khorasan to the ISIS thus facilitating encirclement of Iran? Was Al-Qaeda trying to establish itself in settled areas where availability of organized militant networks can be more useful to its future global designs? All question aside, the latest Al-Qaeda move of concentrating in mega city like Karachi can have dreadful implications for the entire South Asia in general and Karachi in particular.  

Al-Qaeda appeal to youth was centered on its ideology of following pious ancestors (Salaf) and establishing Islamic Caliphate to enforce Sharia. That seems intact especially in settled areas of Pakistan where it targets educated youths to fill its ranks. The two terror incidents of Parade Lane at Rawalpindi and Safoora Goth in Karachi in which the facilitators were mostly from educated families vindicate the assertion. The facilitator network in Islamabad and Karachi played an effective role for the foot soldiers brought from FATA to conduct the killings. Karachi, due to ineffective policing, governance issues, political rivalries and social division on ethnic, linguistic and sectarian lines has turned into a lawless paradise for criminals. AQIS is fast gaining grounds in Karachi thanks largely to its vast network of Madrassas and sympathizers. Local Al-Qaeda leadership is not to be seen in prominence but foot soldiers of their affiliate are active in target killings, abduction and ransom crimes. AQIS ranks will soon be battle hardened to undertake larger Trans frontier operations.  Where Al-Qaeda would strike next and what it aims to do in South Asia especially in the backdrop of worsening Pak-India relations is a question likely to bring nightmares to the counter-terrorism experts. 

Can Al-Qaeda do this alone or it will team up with local militant organizations like Lashkar e Jhangvi or Urban Taliban networks will be interesting to watch in the near future. Urban Karachi provide  wide choice to Al-Qaeda to penetrate nontraditional recruitment grounds including Mohajir, Bengali and other immigrants communities to fight for the enforcement of sharia. AQIS presence is like an umbrella and its alliance with the local militant groups is evident from the rising intensity in target killing, abduction and ransom crimes in Karachi. AQIS major operation in the city was its attempted hijacking of Pakistani Navy vessel from the port of Karachi in September 2014. Recent upsurge in target killing, abduction and ransom crimes indicate that Al-Qaeda alliance with the local militant organization and criminal gangs is complete. AQIS is likely raise crimes intensity systematically and a particular sectarian group will be targeted in Karachi to draw both Sunni and Shia against each other. This is start of a bigger terror campaign with possible targets outside Pakistani borders in the near future to destroy the regional peace and harmony.
About Author:

Author is a freelance writer. He gained firsthand experience in security and counterterrorism and is expert in this domain with years of professional experience. He mostly writes about security issues and counter terrorism challenges posed to the state of Pakistan.  He can be reached at niaz_tariq@yahoo.com

ANALYSIS: Gen Raheel and Saudi Led Islamic Military Alliance

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Pakistan media is buzzed with the news that Gen. Raheel Shareef, COAS Pakistan Army, has been asked by the Saudi led 34 countries alliance to become its commander in-chief after his retirement which is due November later this year. Source of information according to Daily The News International is "US military and political sources."

What COAS Meant by 'Entering Into Most Difficult Phase of Operation'?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

While speaking to the APEX committee KPK meeting in Peshawar, COAS has said that state is entering in the most difficult and dangerous phase of operation. He also said that return of Temporary Displaced People (TDPs) is top priority for Pakistan Army.

One may wonder what does "entering most difficult phase of operation" it actually mean.

The answer is simple. COAS has stated the obvious. Sanctuaries of terrorists in FATA have been practically eliminated and what now has been left of TTP is mainly consists of sleeper cells which work in coordination with group's top command hiding in Afghanistan. Tracking these sleeper cells in urban centers, eliminating the TTP's top brass is critical for the final success against TTP. 

Syrian Conflict Enters In Disturbing New Phase

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Just days after the fateful incident of Russian SU-24, Syrian conflict is taking a rather uglier turn as more disturbing events are unfolding. 

In the latest developments, Syrian government has accused US led coalition warplanes of attacking a Syrian Army Camp in Deir ez Zor province. The incident is first of its kind which has taken place amid ongoing allegations and counter-allegations between Turkey and Russia triggered in the aftermath of SU-24 downing row and can very easily trigger a new round of more kinetic confrontation between US and Russian led alliances.

The Syrian government has said that 3 people were dead while 13 got injured and number of military vehicles were destroyed. According to Syrian government, the coalition jets fired nine missiles at an army camp in the Deir ez Zor province, which remains mostly under the control of Islamic State. 

The Syrian Foreign Ministry has filed an official protest with the UN Security Council regarding the US-led coalition’s airstrikes on Syrian troops, Syria’s SANA official news agency reported Monday.

“Syria strongly condemns the act of aggression by the US-led coalition that contradicts the UN Charter on goals and principles. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent letters to the UN Secretary General and the UN Security Council,” SANA quoted the foreign ministry as saying.

US and Coalition Rejects Allegations:

The US and allied nations’ coalition has denied the Syrian claims.

Brett McGurk, Obama’s envoy to Syria, on his Twitter account, said that there had been no coalition strikes anywhere within 55 kilometers (35 miles) of the said camp.

"Reports of coalition involvement are false," he wrote in his tweet.

Apart from him, the coalition spokesman Colonel Steve Warren also commented on Syrian allegations saying, ”We’ve seen those Syrian reports but we did not conduct any strikes in that part of Deir ez Zor yesterday. So we see no evidence,” 

The Deir ez Zor province is situated in eastern Syria, and is largely controlled by Islamic State (IS). The region is of significant strategic importance to the terrorist group, as it contains a number of oilfields, which are a major source of revenue for IS.

Syrian government is declaring the US led coalition bombing in Syria against ISIS as illegal. According to some unconfirmed reports, President Putin has reportedly already declared the Syrian crisis a beginning of World War III and forces have been ordered to prepare for a global scale conflict. 

In another related development, Iraq has given Turkey an ultimatum of 48 hours to leave Iraqi territory while Turkey has said that it has right to protect its soldiers. This ultimatum comes after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's letter of his Iraqi counterpart Haider Al Abadi in which it is promised and assured that there will be no deployment of Turkish forces in Iraq until Baghdad's concerns are addressed. 

ANALYSIS:

If this string of events prolongs it can easily get out of control and no one will be able to prevent a regional conflict at much larger scale. The region is slowly drifting towards a larger conflict. with UN clearly finding itself irrelevant. These are perilous trends for peace and security. Any regional conflict triggered from Syria, would not only jeopardize global peace but would also destroy UN as global conflict resolution body.

It seems all the major stakeholders fighting against a common threat of IS have a complete diplomatic breakdown and events like Su-24 downing and alleged US coalition strike on an Syrian camp can easily send wrong signals regarding the intentions of opposite alliance. It is time that countries like Pakistan or China who are not involved in this mess take some initiative to salvage the prospects of peace. Any forum can be utilized for such an diplomatic incentive but whatever has to be done it must be done on war footings. Trends in Syria are obviously turning disturbing it not alarming!

Pakistan and US Agree on Eearly Resumption of Afghan Peace Process

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and the United States have agreed to work together for an early resumption of the stalled Afghan reconciliation process.

Both countries reached to this understand during the COAS Gen Raheel Sharif's recent visit to the US where he held extensive discussions with key figures of the Obama administration, including Vice President Joe Biden.

“There is a sort of agreement that there is a need to move on the Afghan reconciliation thing very quickly depending on the conditions,” a senior diplomatic source, who had been briefed on the trip, told Dawn in a background briefing on Saturday.

Pakistan believes that there can be no peace as long as Afghanistan remains volatile that's why Afghanistan was the main focus of Gen Sharif’s visit, during which other issues related to Pakistan national security an regional stability like Pakistan’s strained ties with India, military cooperation, strategic (nuclear) issues and other regional matters were discussed.

According to the sources privy to meetings between COAS Gen Raheel and American interlocutors Pakistani military leadership quite candidly conveyed its political and strategic perspectives on various issues related to Afghanistan to concerned quarters in the US.  

Gen Sharif is believed to have communicated Pakistan’s fears in accepting the facilitation role that it is expected to play for reviving the process. The Pakistani side is primarily concerned about the Afghan security establishment thwarting a renewed process.

Military spokesman Lt Gen Asim Bajwa, too, had in one of his tweets on the army chief’s visit said that “requirement of conducive environment for re-initiating Afghan peace process” was emphasised.

Pakistan is very clear about the issue and is certain that there are elements within Afghanistan government and NDS who don't want to let the reconciliation process start. These elements want to protect their political interests by denying any political role of Taliban which they may get as result of an agreement with Kabul.

In this regard, at least three major initiatives – the first attempt in February to kick-start the reconciliation process, the ISI-NDS (the Afghan intelligence agency) cooperation agreement in May, and the reconciliation process itself –, Pakistanis believe, failed because of conspiracies hatched by these elements within Afghanistan establishment.

There was no time frame of this process was set though.“It would have been imprudent to set the timeframe without getting the Afghan government and China on board,” the source explained.

It is also expected that a “lot of ground would be covered during the Heart of Asia Conference”, which Pakistan is co-hosting with Afghanistan on Dec 7-8. It is being speculated that President Ashraf Ghani would visit Islamabad on this occasion.

Chinese Special Envoy on Afghanistan Ambassador Deng Xijun, who visited Pakistan last week, too had offered to facilitate the Afghan dialogue, provided other stakeholders agreed to the proposal.

A concerted diplomatic push for resumption of reconciliation process is clearly afoot.

An early resumption of peace process in Afghanistan is in interest of both Pakistan and the US. Pakistan cannot consolidate on the gains of Operation Zarb e Azb without brokering a peace deal between Afghan factions. On the other hand, President Obama wants to bring Afghan war to a logical conclusion so that it does not eclipses his legacy as President.

Indian factor is also important in Pak US overtures in Afghanistan. India sees any peace reconciliation process in Afghanistan as a negative development for its own interests in Afghanistan. After the renewed resolve to kick start Afghan reconciliation process, it is believed in Islamabad that Indians may quietly be told to let US, Pakistan work out Afghan peace policy. If it is true, then not it is obvious to hope that not only US would push Afghan government to produce a conducive environment for reconciliation but Pak-US bilateral relations would also come out of shadows of mistrust regarding former's role in global WoT.

Paris Attacks: What will be French Response : Justice or Retribution?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

French President Francois Hollande has promised a merciless response to ISIS who has claimed the responsibility of the wave of terror strikes by gunmen and bombers that killed at least 129 people at six different places in Paris on Friday (Saturday morning in Pakistan). 87 people were killed by terrorist at Bataclan concert hall where, according to reports, 3 suicide bombers blew themselves before French anti-terrorism force stormed the hall and rescued many survivors. More than 40 people were killed at five other locations including double suicide bombing outside the Stade de France national stadium, where Mr Hollande and the German foreign minister were watching a friendly soccer international between the two countries.

The attack is being described as the most brutal incident since World War II. “The terrorists, the murderers, raked several cafe terraces with machine-gun fire before entering (the concert hall). There were many victims in terrible, atrocious conditions in several places,” police prefect Michel Cadot told reporters.

French government has announced three days of national mourning.

President Hollande described the assault as “an act of war” against France. He made his reaction as well. “France will be merciless towards these barbarians from Daesh,” he said, using the Arabic acronym for IS.

French leader also said that the attack was planned on a foreign soil.

It must be remembered that France is already at war with ISIS in Syria and is one of the most active participant of US led alliance against the terror organization. 

Former president Nicolas Sarkozy has called for a total war against ISIS. “The war we must wage should be total.”, said Mr. Sarkozy in a statement.

The intensity of this incident has forced the entire Europe to tighten the border security. Germany, Italy, Russia, Belgium, Hungary and the Netherlands also tightened security measures after the incident.

How France is going to respond to this attack is pretty much clear but is this a right strategy keeping in mind the two unfinished wars of the US in Afghanistan and Iraq? and more important question is, will a military-oriented strategy by France will ensure the security of its people and prevention of any next 13/11? Seeking answers of these key questions are challenge and opportunity at the same time. 

ANALYSIS:

The sole purpose of any national security policy or response strategy is to secure the nation by making sure that no security incident takes place and if one occurs the policy or strategy must ensure prevention of such incident in future. Such policy making demands a multi-pronged mindset which encompasses all the dynamics of any particular incident like identifying elements behind it, tactics and more importantly the root causes. 

13/11 was outcome of the policy of 'execution of terrorists' instead of 'prosecution of terrorists' without spending any time on ascertaining the terrorists mindset and their causes. This strategy was adopted by the US after 9/11. This strategy was flawed as it took away the entire process of justice. The US and allies began to label individuals, factions, organizations and even states as terrorists and began execution process all by themselves without any trials like it was done in 2003 when Iraq was invaded by US/UK to remove Saddam Hussain under the false pretext of WMDs.

Now the question is, what France is going to do with/in Syria to hunt 13/11 perpetrators and masterminds belonging to ISIS?

Actually there is not much France can do right now militarily as it is already part of the US coalition in Syria against ISIS if Paris has decided to opt for a more aggressive military-oriented kinetic strategy, as is being hinted by the French leadership. Under any such strategy, France will intensify its military campaign against ISIS. But doing so without complete investigations would not only complicate the Middle East crisis and Syrian civil war but would also help the co conspirators hiding within EU to escape the justice and the EU's security would remain at peril. 

It is necessary for global peace that these accomplices of attackers are brought to justice. In order to achieve this, an intelligence based surgical approach will guarantee far higher probability of success as compared to waging a prolonged war in Syria. France must avoid indulging into a prolonged conflict in ME as this might be the real strategic plan of these ISIS terrorists. 

France must keep the lessons learned from failed and unfinished US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. French response must not be based on sheer sense of retribution like the US response was after 9/11. Last 14 years of WoT have exposed the vulnerabilities of this revenge-oriented strategic mindset.

A complete investigation of 13/11 terror attacks, finding its masterminds, facilitators, financiers and accomplices is critical for strengthening of international justice system. 

A senseless military response by the US after 9/11 only strengthened Al-Qaeda, ISIS and countless other violent entities in and around Middle East. This strategy has compromised the role of UN in global conflicts even further and as a consequence the world has become a less safer place.

Geopolitical Angle:

ISIS has claimed the responsibility of Paris attacks and has also made clear that these attacks are response to the French airstrikes in Syria against ISIS.

Looking at the initial French reaction over Paris terrorist attacks new concerns are becoming apparent on the geopolitical axis as well. The most important of these is prospects of a perpetuation of this war between ISIS and France. If France goes after ISIS without purging it completely from its own soil, there is a greater probability of another similar attack in France or elsewhere in EU. 

Another concern is new possible strategic alignment which might take place in Syria in fight against ISIS where Russia and the US alliance are not on the same page despite both claiming to fight against ISIS. Russian intervention in Syria is being considered as hindrance by the West in their plan to overthrow Asad's regime in Damascus. If the US along with France, under any military-oriented response strategy, decide to rearm Syrian rebels, which are being attacked by Russia, against both ISIS and Asad or send ground troops, Russia can response this move by putting more of its own military hardware in Syria to support Syrian army. Iran will also follow the line and most probably will amplify her involvement in Syria. This can easily lead to a dangerous stand off between the two Cold War rivals.

As both the US and Russia don't believe on each other's narratives yet both these global powers are involved in Syria without any UN mandate. In reality, this is beginning of a next cold war which does not look that cold considering the regional geopolitical dynamics where UN has no role. This has been proven in case of Middle East where first Iraq and then Syria were invaded by foreign forces unilaterally and the entire region is paying for this flawed approach and now Europe is also facing the heat.

The fate of ISIS, in Syria, remains uncertain but only certain certain fact is that, without proper investigations, trials and convictions, any decision of use force would push Syria in yet another brutal phase of violence and Syrian population will not be the only casualty in this chaos. Global peace, international institutions like UN, international law and justice will also become victim of this imbroglio. 

ISIS will continue to prevail because despite severe bombing from all the modern air powers its oil wells, refineries and export terminals which constitute the financial engine of ISIS, will stay protected like they have been so far and just to give excuses to both the US and Russia to keep their respective military forces in the region.
ISIS, Russia, US alliance and their proxies will continue to fight for many years to come creating more vacuums for more militant and violent terror groups in case these geopolitical considerations remains overlooked!

This is why it is critical for France to adopt a more robust and comprehensive response strategy than the current chaotic approach introduced by Washington after 9/11. This strategy must incorporate both kinetic and non-kinetic responses to ensure address the root causes of global terrorism.

Conclusion:

Terrorism can only be defeated by justice. Use of force as revenge as a strategy has failed already and is bound to be doomed in future as well. France must learn from failure of US policy on global terrorism. This incident is awful indeed but at the same time, it is also an opportunity for world leaders to sit together and contemplate an international framework to prosecute terrorists under the same law.