Syrian Conflict Enters In Disturbing New Phase

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Just days after the fateful incident of Russian SU-24, Syrian conflict is taking a rather uglier turn as more disturbing events are unfolding. 

In the latest developments, Syrian government has accused US led coalition warplanes of attacking a Syrian Army Camp in Deir ez Zor province. The incident is first of its kind which has taken place amid ongoing allegations and counter-allegations between Turkey and Russia triggered in the aftermath of SU-24 downing row and can very easily trigger a new round of more kinetic confrontation between US and Russian led alliances.

The Syrian government has said that 3 people were dead while 13 got injured and number of military vehicles were destroyed. According to Syrian government, the coalition jets fired nine missiles at an army camp in the Deir ez Zor province, which remains mostly under the control of Islamic State. 

The Syrian Foreign Ministry has filed an official protest with the UN Security Council regarding the US-led coalition’s airstrikes on Syrian troops, Syria’s SANA official news agency reported Monday.

“Syria strongly condemns the act of aggression by the US-led coalition that contradicts the UN Charter on goals and principles. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent letters to the UN Secretary General and the UN Security Council,” SANA quoted the foreign ministry as saying.

US and Coalition Rejects Allegations:

The US and allied nations’ coalition has denied the Syrian claims.

Brett McGurk, Obama’s envoy to Syria, on his Twitter account, said that there had been no coalition strikes anywhere within 55 kilometers (35 miles) of the said camp.

"Reports of coalition involvement are false," he wrote in his tweet.

Apart from him, the coalition spokesman Colonel Steve Warren also commented on Syrian allegations saying, ”We’ve seen those Syrian reports but we did not conduct any strikes in that part of Deir ez Zor yesterday. So we see no evidence,” 

The Deir ez Zor province is situated in eastern Syria, and is largely controlled by Islamic State (IS). The region is of significant strategic importance to the terrorist group, as it contains a number of oilfields, which are a major source of revenue for IS.

Syrian government is declaring the US led coalition bombing in Syria against ISIS as illegal. According to some unconfirmed reports, President Putin has reportedly already declared the Syrian crisis a beginning of World War III and forces have been ordered to prepare for a global scale conflict. 

In another related development, Iraq has given Turkey an ultimatum of 48 hours to leave Iraqi territory while Turkey has said that it has right to protect its soldiers. This ultimatum comes after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's letter of his Iraqi counterpart Haider Al Abadi in which it is promised and assured that there will be no deployment of Turkish forces in Iraq until Baghdad's concerns are addressed. 

ANALYSIS:

If this string of events prolongs it can easily get out of control and no one will be able to prevent a regional conflict at much larger scale. The region is slowly drifting towards a larger conflict. with UN clearly finding itself irrelevant. These are perilous trends for peace and security. Any regional conflict triggered from Syria, would not only jeopardize global peace but would also destroy UN as global conflict resolution body.

It seems all the major stakeholders fighting against a common threat of IS have a complete diplomatic breakdown and events like Su-24 downing and alleged US coalition strike on an Syrian camp can easily send wrong signals regarding the intentions of opposite alliance. It is time that countries like Pakistan or China who are not involved in this mess take some initiative to salvage the prospects of peace. Any forum can be utilized for such an diplomatic incentive but whatever has to be done it must be done on war footings. Trends in Syria are obviously turning disturbing it not alarming!

Russia Puts Sanctions on Turkey, Blamed It for Protect ISIS Oil Trade: What Next?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Crisis in Syria is engulfing neighboring states as Russia and Turkey has exchanged accusations and counter-accusations. Russia has claimed that Turkey shot down its SU-24 to protect illegal oil trade of ISIS. Turkey has strongly challenged these allegations and has demanded proofs from Russia for the same. As the temperature is rising over this row of allegations and counter allegations, the world leaders are visibly panicked.  President Obama has urged both Russia and Turkey to reduce tension. 

Two days back, Turkey-Russia bilateral relations hit yet another low as Russia retaliated against Turkey again by imposing economic sanctions on Ankara after severing the military ties over downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber fighter near Syrian border. Russian President has signed the decree.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had earlier announced that Turks will have to apply for visas to visit Russia. 

Russia has described the sanctions “aimed at ensuring national security and that of Russian citizens” and included a ban on charter flights between the two countries and on Russian businesses hiring any new Turkish nationals as well as import restrictions on certain Turkish goods, according to a text of the decree released by the Kremlin.

On its part, Turkish leadership has begun to realize the gravity of situation as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier expressed “sadness” over the incident which has severely strained relations, saying that “we wish it had never happened.”

After this statement of Turkish President,  it was hoped that the tensions will be lowered but Russia now has accused Turkey to protect illegal oil smuggling by ISIS and has blamed that SU-24 was downed to cover this oil trade of terrorist group. Reacting to this latest allegation, Turkish president Erdogan says ready to resign if claims about Turkey's buying oil from IS are confirmed.  

ANALYSIS:

Stakes are getting higher on both sides with every passing day. Turkey has made it clear that it will not apologies and it seems Russia would not accept anything less. Is it making of a new conflict in the region? Might be and might be not. But certainly this incident is going to play a significant role in shaping future geopolitics in the region. 

Turkey is almost in similar position Pakistan was in 1980's. Pakistan's then strategic mindset was outcome of firm belief that Soviets will continue there southward march towards the hot waters of Arabian Sea. Once they captured Afghanistan, Pakistan will be their natural target. With India as their main ally, there matrix for Pakistan's national security would be complicated further. So, stopping Soviets in Afghan gorges were considered vital national security interest. Pakistan decided to fight against Soviets in Afghanistan. Americans came to help in 1982 when they saw initial success of Pakistan backed elements. It was afterwards of 1983 when Pakistan began to made strategic miscalculations about the intentions of CIA who was there just to defeat oldest global enemy of Uncle Sam. CIA won the war and left the region in late 1980s after turning Afghanistan into a strategic black hole. (World came to know about the reality of Operation Cyclone of CIA in 1998 when former US national security adviser to President Carter, Brzezinski disclosed that it was all along CIA's plan to lure Soviets in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been playing the price of letting CIA run "Jihad" in Afghanistan since that time.

The most ironic aspect of this entire episode is that why Islamabad didn't engage Moscow on diplomatic levels to assess their plans? Global balance of power was disturbed after Soviet collapse.

Today, Turkey is NATO ally just like Pakistan was in 1980's. Russia is in its neighbor, just like it was in Pakistan's neighbor in 1980's. Pakistan was told by the US to prepare its defenses as Soviets will be targeting Pakistan next. Turkey, is also being encouraged to defend itself against Russia.

It is a good sign that Turkish President has expressed his sadness on this issue. Turkish diplomacy must engage Russia constructively. Formation of a join investigation team to prob Su-24 destruction can be proposed as a first measure to clam down enraged Putin. 

Any more aggression from Turkey, even on diplomatic level, would only complicate things for Turkey. Based on its own past experience, Pakistan must also advice the Ankara in this regard. Otherwise, just like World War 1, some 100 years ago, the region is drifting towards a larger conflict or a new Cold War.