After 9 months of non-stop violence and anarchy in the country, finally, Iraqi government has decided to launch first major offensive against ISIS to recapture Tikrit city in Salauhddin Province of the country, located North to capital Baghdad. Tikrit was overrun by the ISIS last year. The city holds importance for being hometown of previous Baathist leader of the country, Saddam Hussian. According to Iraqi and Iranian media, Qassem Soleimani - commander of the Quds Force covert operations unit in Iran's Revolutionary Guard - was in Salahuddin province to help coordinate the operation.
Some 30,000 troops backed by air power and artillery fire power are going to initiate operation from various directions. This operation is critically important for any future operations to capture ISIS stronghold Mosul located further North to Tikrit. The US forces think the major US/Iraq offensive to retake Mosul can begin in April or May but that time table depends upon the outcome of Tikrit operation by Iraqi forces who have already captured a nearby oil refinery town of Baiji. The road leading to Mosul passes through Tikrit.
Interestingly, the US air power would not assist the Iraqi forces during the operation in Tikrit. It is unclear right now if the Iraqi forces alone would be able to get Tikrit back. It must be noticed that all previous operations to get the town back have failed resulting in large number of death casualties of Iraqi troops. In this backdrop, the absence of US air power is not only perplexing but dangerous for fresh offensive as well. The second caveat to the success of this operation remains inclusion of Shia private militia. Since the last year, ISIS massacred large number of Shia fighters in the same area of Salauhddin province and now the Shia fighters are looking to avenge that bloodshed. This may create serious problem for operational integrity of the offensive.
