India's Maritime Strategy: Fishing in Troubled Waters

 

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

India has finally decided to fish in troubled waters of South China Sea in order to showcase her maritime power projection capabilities. According to media reports, the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet has sailed out, on 18th May, on an "operational deployment" to the South China and North West Pacific. This operational deployment is significant development in the contentious geography of South China Sea which has become hotbed of strategic maritime competition between China and the US and her allies. 

Super Aircraft Carrier & New Destroyers: Resurgence of Russian Maritime Power

Shahzad Masood Roomi

Maritime developments in Eastern Europe and Baltic states carry all the signs of beginning of a new Cold War in 21st century which would usher a new era of arms race in the region. As the NATO and the US are supplying weapons to the Eastern European and Baltic States' naval forces, Russian response has also been a swift one in mitigating the threat and keeping the balance of power in its favor. 

Poland is looking for anti-ship cruise missiles (ideally US Harpoon) for its submarines while new submarines are also on order. US would gladly supply Poland with these missiles and new submarines as it will serve US interests in the region and would also help to extend the political control by establishing Poland defenses as close NATO ally under a constant Russian threat. US diplomacy in the close proximity of Russia revolves around a containment policy. 

Russian response is a more aggressive posturing in the region. New Russian maritime projects indicate a renewal of Russian Navy's 4 battle commands with 4 carrier groups. A detailed look on these projects makes it obvious that Russia is not ready to accept the expansion of NATO to its borders. From Russian perspective, the execution of this modernization drive has both political and military dynamics. This Russian modernization is a strong signal to Western Europe and Washington about how Moscow feels about NATO expansion in its backyard but more importantly, it is also an indication that Russia is going to play a more assertive role in future geopolitics of the region and beyond. Russian intervention in Syria to save Asad’s regime there is the indistinct manifestation of this.

Once Russia complete the modernization of its naval forces with multipurpose heavy aircraft carriers, it will certainly begin to play a more assertive role in Arctic Circle, Atlantic Ocean and, many be troubled Pacific Rim of Indian Ocean. Below are the details of Russian Super Carrier program and future destroyer program.

Russian Super Carrier Program:

Project 23000E or Shtorm is the name of a new multipurpose heavy aircraft carrier design for Russian naval forces. The project is going to be executed by Krylovsky State Research Center (KRSC).

The design features a split air wing comprising navalized T-50 PAK/FA and Mig-29Ks, as well as jet powered naval AEW platforms. The ship is going to house Ka-27 helicopters as well. 

Valery Polyakov, the deputy director of KSC informed media about the design goals of this multipurpose carrier;

"The carrier is designed to conduct operations in remote and oceanic areas, engage land-based and sea-borne enemy targets, ensure the operational stability of naval forces, protect landing troops, and provide the anti-aircraft defense," 

The initial specifications show that the ship would be a competitor to USN Nimitz class with its displacement of 90-100,000 tons, and length of 330 meters. Ship will carry 80 - 90 aircraft of various sorts as per mission requirements. The ship would be 40 meters wide with a draft of 11 meters.

Its crusie speed will be 20kt while it will have a top speed of 30 kt. The endurance of carrier in the sea is intended at 4 month time.  The biggest hurdle will be designing of non-conventional propulsion for such a heavy ship.

The project is an ambitious one as it is being designed with provision of dual design angled flight deck with four launch positions: 2 from Ski-Jump and 2 from electromagnetic catapults.

The main design feature which set it apart from conventional carrier design is inclusion of two island concept. It will separate the running of the ship from the flying operations resulting in greater visibility of flying operations and allowing other commander to focus more on maritime maneuvering in the sea.

Russian internet source claims that funds for the project has already been allocated.

Russian Future Destroyer: 

Apart from this heavy duty carrier, a new class of destroyer for the Russian Navy is currently under development by the Krylov State Research Center (KSRC), IHS Jane's was told during a visit to the company.

The new destroyer design called Project 23560E or Shkval (Squall) is being pursued for Russian naval forces by Krylovsky State Research Center (KRSC). A scale model of the design was exhibited for the first time during the International Maritime Defence Show 2015 held earlier in St Petersburg.

By looking at its specifications it can easily be labeled as a Cruiser. At full-load its displacement will be between 15,000-18,000 tons. It has a length of 200 meters, beam of 23 meters. It can cruise at speed of 2o kt while its maximum speed is 32kt. It can operate for 90 days in the sea with a crew of 250-300 on board. Despite its massive displacement and size, it will still be powered by gas turbine engine.

Russian manufacturer has plans to install a battle management system integrated with tactical and operational-tactical ACSs on these destroyers which will provide commander a clear situational awareness during the maritime engagements. This battle management system will get data from multiple on-board sensors multi-functional phased array radar, electronic warfare subsystem, communications suite, underwater reconnaissance system. Each ship will be able to house two ship borne helicopters.

The destroyer carries huge amount of missiles in vertical launching arramgenets. These include 60-70 anti-ship or anti-land cruise missiles, 128 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), and 16-24 anti-submarine missiles. The ship is also equipped with a 130 mm multipurpose naval gun.

Pakistan's S-20 Submarine Deal: Is It Enough to Restore Maritime Balance of Power?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

On 23rd July 2015, Pakistan took a big step forward in order to strengthen the  

According to media reports Pakistan will buy 8 Chinese made S-20 conventional attack submarines in a multi-billion dollar deal that will boost Pakistani navy's subsurface capabilities.

Sources claimed that an agreement was reached here during a meeting between Pakistani finance minister Ishaq Dar and Xu Ziqin, president of state-owned China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Company Limited (SCOC) which is the trade arm of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. The reports of submarines deal was in the air since the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan in April and now it looks like that a considerable progress has been made.

Final approval of the deal is subject to a high level review in Beijing and a formal agreement would signed afterwards. Pakistan would make payments in four installments and the delivery of the vessels would commence in coming years.

"Financial arrangements to this effect were also concluded," it added indicating that both the parties have agreed on the most concerning part of the deal as far as Pakistan is concerned.

The statement issued by Finance ministry quoted Mr. Xu thanking Ishaq Dar for his contribution in concluding the arrangements, saying it was reflective of the "deep-rooted" China-Pakistan friendship.

It was reported then that the contract could be worth US$ 4-5 billions making it  the biggest arms export deal for Communist China and Pakistan Navy as well.

Pakistan has been negotiating the purchase of submarines from China since 2011. No details were, however, given about the type of the submarines. But there have been reports that Yuan-class Type-041 diesel-electric submarines were being considered.

S-20:

First unveiled during IDEX 2013, the international defense exhibition held in the United Arab Emirates, S-20 was introduced as not merely for domestic demand but also for export on international market.

Though is is based on Type 041 Yuan class, there are clear differences between these two. S-20 is essentially an export version of Type -041.  S-20’s length is 66 meters against 73-75 meters of Type 041. But this is most probably due to the fact the S-20 comes without AIP module of Type-041 which can easily integrated if a customer requires thanks to modular design of S-20. Pakistani S-20 will come with AIP system installed. Similarly, surface displacement (1,850 tons) and submerged displacement (2,300 tons) are considerably less than Yuan's surface displacement. Maximum speed is also a bit slow at 18 knots against 20 Knots of Yuan while the cruise speed is similar to Yuan at 16 knots, range is 8,000 nautical miles at 16 knots, endurance is 60 days. Crew is one area where S-20 looks better than Yuan as it has a crew of 38 versus 58 for the Yuan. 

Despite these specifications, S-20 promises solid performance as a sub-surface combat naval platform. It is double hulled with maximum submerging depth of 300 meters. It is equipped with variable frequency hydro-phonic detection device and towed sonar. Non details are available regarding weapons on board but understandably its weapon package would include heavy torpedoes and anti-ship missiles from six torpedo tubes and deploy mines and special forces. 

S-20 Deal And Assessment of Pakistan's Maritime Security Challenges:

For Pakistan Navy, the threat matrix is multi-dimensional. Indian Navy is gearing to become a Blue Water Navy. Apart from air craft carriers, IN is inducting medium to heavy guided missile destroyers. Security & Threat Matrix has done a detailed analysis of IN surface fleet here. To give the readers a clear idea, a brief extract is being reproduced here.

"Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).

As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014." 

Keeping in mind these IN projects, (which are not limited to these guided missile destroyers but also include procurement of more Scropene class subs from France) it is only prudent to ask if S-20 is enough to restore maritime balance of power which has dangerously tilted in Indian favor? It might be said that India is pursuing blue water navy dream to counter China as a partner of the US in Washington's Asia-Pacific Pivot strategy and her preparations are not targeted against Pakistani maritime interest. But in reality is bitter revenge of South Asia's geography that Pakistan cannot stay unaffected by the ongoing strategic maritime power projection competition Indian Ocean between China and, US and her allies.

Keeping in mind the sheer size of future Indian surface fleet and weapons and sensor system on board, it is obvious that Pakistan must reconsider the number of S-20. Pakistan currently has only 3 conventional attack submarines (Augosta 90-B) which can pose some threat to IN assets during a conflict. 

Pakistan needs to establish a submarine force of more than 20 ships along minimum 4 medium weight (5000-7000 Tons) guided missile destroyer armed with naval version of Babur cruise missile. Induction of CM-400AK in PAF, is not enough particularly when IN vessels will be armed with medium range Barak-8 SAM, jointly developed with Israel. Induction of this SAM system is another obvious proof that IN is moving towards becoming a Blue Water Navy. 

The seawards threats posed by IN must be mitigated by enhancement of PN in all departments (surface, sub surface and air). Relying on a single platform would certainly jeopardize the entire national defense. The most critical factor is time. The longer national leadership would take to assess these threats harder it will be to deter them. Time to act is NOW!    

Latest Scuffle Between China and the US

(IHS Jane's) The Pentagon has confirmed that an "unsafe" encounter occurred in mid-September when a US Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft was intercepted by Chinese fighter aircraft over the Yellow Sea.

The latest incident follows one in November 2014 when a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Shenyang J-11B interceptor performed what US officials called a "dangerous" manoeuvre close to a US Navy Boeing P-8A maritime patrol aircraft in international airspace off Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

Speaking at a regular briefing in Washington, DC, Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook confirmed that a RC-135 was intercepted on 15 September by a pair of Chinese Xian JH-7 fighter-bombers in international airspace over the Yellow Sea.

Cook added that the intercept happened about 80 miles east of the Shandong peninsula, and that "one of the manoeuvres conducted by the Chinese aircraft during this intercept was perceived as unsafe by the RC-135 air crew" although he stressed that there was no indication that a near collision had occurred.

The intercept was originally reported by the Washington Free Beacon website, which described the JH-7 as having "crossed very close" to the nose of the RC-135.

Analysis:

With global power transformation acceleration, the existing global power is reacting to the overtures being made by inspiring global power. US and Chinese strategic interests are heading towards a collision course with the rise of Chinese military power. The US is desperate of keep an eye on Chinese development along the entire Pacific Rim of Indian Ocean but Chinese are now openly confronting such US moves.Question remains if any of these two major economies and militaries can afford such head on collision? Whatever may be the outcome of any such eventuality for both of these, it certainly would be catastrophic for the entire Asia.

PAF Confirms Talks for Purchasing Russian Su-35

(IHS Janes)The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has discussed buying Su-35 'Flanker-E' fighter aircraft from Russia in potentially the largest defence deal between the two countries, but a final decision is yet to be made, a senior Pakistani government official has confirmed to IHS Jane's .

The official was responding to Russian media reports that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had said talks were underway for an unspecified number of Su-35s, which follow a recent agreement to provide Mi-35M 'Hind E' attack helicopters to Islamabad.

While the official said "it's too early to say if a deal will conclude and the terms", the fact that discussions have taken place shows Russia's willingness to sell advanced hardware with Pakistan despite Moscow's longstanding ties with India.

The official said Pakistan's interest in the Su-35 was driven by the PAF's need for a twin-engine fighter "that can fly for a longer range than the JF-17 and penetrate more deeply into the enemy's territory". The PAF flies a mixed fleet of Lockheed Martin F-16s, Dassault Mirage-5s, Chinese-manufactured F-7s, and the JF-17 Thunder, which is jointly produced by China and Pakistan.

In November 2014 a senior Pakistani official told IHS Jane's that Pakistan was in discussions with China to buy 30 to 40 FC-31s - the export version of China's J-31 fifth-generation platform. At the time, the official told IHS Jane's that Pakistan was interested in the platform partly because it was fitted with two RD-93 Russian Klimov engines, which also powers the JF-17. PAF officials have also told IHS Jane's in the past that they have considered the purchase of up to 40 Chengdu J-10 fighters.

ANALYSIS

So, It is official now!

Finally Pakistan is looking for building a response for expanding Indian maritime aviation threat after induction of Mig-29K on board INS Vikramaditya. Pakistan Naval Aviation and PAF both have no match for such potent aircraft in Indian arsenal. Need for a twin engine fighter for this particular role was there since long time. But Pakistan's problem are multi-folded. Not only IAF and IN have high tech fighter jets in numbers, India has a long coastal line along Arabian Sea which runs southwards deep into Indian Ocean. This coastline provide strategic depth to IN and IAF against any PN/PAF response in case of war. Keeping all these point in mind, SU-35 is perhaps the most suitable fighter PAF must procure. It has both the range and higher payload. PAF's current fighter inventory lack on range parameter particularly. According to IHS Janes, the negotiations are still in early phase hopefully this time PAF would not make a mess like they did in 1990's when Pakistan was interested in securing a deal of SU-27 Basic flanker model from Ukraine!