Heavier munitions for Israeli air force, But what is the target?

According to IHS Janes,  The US State Department has approved the sale to Israel of over 20,000 guided bomb kits and 8,650 associated warheads, including additional 5,000 lb 'bunker busters', the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on 19 May

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Reportedly, the Israeli air force would also get 250 AIM-120C Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) and 3,000 AGM-114K/R Hellfire missiles. Total cost of the deal is USD1.9 billion.

The details of this deal is rather interesting. Though the deal also includes 4,100 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), which is a 250 lb-class GPS-guided weapon with flip-out wings to increase its range. But it is the numbers of heavier air launched munitions which made this entire deal very intriguing. According to DSCA notification, Israeli Air Force would get 10,000 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) GPS guidance kits for 2,000 lb (907 kg) MK 84 general purpose bombs, 500 JDAM kits for 1,000 lb MK 83 bombs, and 4,000 JDAM kits for 500 lb MK 82 bombs.

The most interesting item in this Israeli wishlist is a request for 500 DSU-38A/B kits that can be used to upgrade JDAMs so they can be guided to their target using a laser designator as well as GPS, making them more flexible and accurate weapons that can be used against moving targets if needed.

The notification listed 1,500 Paveway laser guidance kits for MK 83s and another 500 for 2,000 lb BLU-109 penetrator warheads, which are used against bunkers.

In terms of warheads, the notification said Israel had requested 4,500 MK 83s and 3,500 MK 82s, but no additional MK-84s or BLU-109s.

And most notably, Israel has requested 50 BLU-113 warheads. The BLU-113 is a 5,000 lb penetrator used with the GBU-28 laser-guided bomb that is designed to destroy deeply buried and heavily fortified targets.

ANALYSIS:

Every weapon acquisition is done after carefully analyzing the potential target of new weapons. By looking at the elements of this deal, it would be prudent to assume that Israeli air force's plans to bomb Iranian nuclear infrastructure has been moved in advanced stage. The request for DSU-38 A/B kits and BLU-113 warheads is particularly important in this regard. In 1982, Israeli air force destroyed an under construction  Iraqi nuclear reactor, near Baghdad, using laser guided bombs and new deal also include large number of 2000 and 5000 pounds laser guided weapons.  

Such an acquisitions by Israel explains why despite a very stressed economy, Iran acquired, S-300 SAM system from Russia.

This deal also raise many questions about the future of the Obama's Middle East policy which excludes any military option against Iran's nuclear facility and is looking forward to resolve the issue related to Iran's nuclear program through negotiations. A deal in this regard is expected next month. Israeli opposition to this US strategy is not a secret and this current deal items also indicates that strategic thinking of Tel Aviv. 

Middle East, Geopolitics and the US-Israel Relations

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

It is obvious that President Obama wants to keep the Iranian nuclear program in check through international monitoring by IAEA and multilateral agreements with Tehran (with 5+1 group) whereas Israeli PM is seeking a direct approach from the US to address the 'problem' like US did take on Iraq during the Bush era over WMDs. But the aftermath of second and protracted Gulf-war has forced the US to avoid any new high intensity clash in the region. Israelis will always analyze the regional geopolitics from their security point of view whereas the White House is to bound to contemplate every possible global and regional contingency as a potential outcome of the US policy decisions. This difference in approach is once again visible over Iranian nuclear program. Both allies have wide difference of opinion and strategy.

But during the Netanyahu's regime, this difference of strategy and opinion is not limited to Iran, there are host of other issues where both the countries differ sharply on strategy. Now even Israeli support lobbying groups want cancellation of a planned speech in the US congress by Israeli PM. The speech will be made in the first week of March when Israeli Prime Minster would be visiting the US. The US based Israeli policy experts and lobbyists consider the planned speech of Israel premier as 'disrespect to the US president' and are demanding a cancellation.

“The only thing that Netanyahu should have done was to create a strong, intimate, holy alliance with the person who actually decides, the US president. But Netanyahu has both failed to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear and has also destroyed the alliance with America. Not a bad output for a term and a half”, wrote Ben Caspit, a commentator, in Ma’ariv, a newspaper while terming the US-Israel relationship “more important than Dimona”, pointing towards Israel’s unannounced nuclear capabilities.

Evidently, the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics are changing the strategic mindset both in Washington and Jerusalem. The US has suffered more in political and economic sense as result of two long wars after 9/11 whereas Israel as emerged stronger and more aggressive in the region after chaos in Iraq and Syria. After recent incident of burning a Jordanian pilot alive in Syria and Jordanian reaction over the incident, Israel finds the environment conducive to adopt a more aggressive approach in Syria against Iran and Hezbollah while the US understands that if Iran also becomes a war zone the battlefield for their forces will stretch from Hindukush in Afghanistan to Western border of Iraq with a possibility of it further expanding till Syrian coast of Latakia and this is something the US would always like to avoid due to obvious unbearable economic and political cost of such a war.

Irrespective to what we see in mainstream media about US-Israel strategic alliance, the latest developments in these bilateral relations show that diplomacy and geopolitics are extremely delicate statecraft and things are not the same as they meet the eye. But considering history of US-Israel relations, this would not be the first time when both have difference over Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Though this acute ebb in bilateral ties is nothing new. Various contentious issues in the region affected the ties but this time there are many factors of regional politics which are not being fully controlled by either of these countries and this is why the US is insisting upon more cautious approach while the Israelis remain stubborn like always. In 1970s, Israeli policies forced the US administration of that time to put the bilateral relations in reassess and halted the military support as well. 
Now when Syrian government has offered negotiations to Israel and a debate is going on within Israeli government, it would be interesting to see what Israeli prim minster has to say to the US Congress on his upcoming visit. And even more intriguing would be the reaction by Obama administration. 

This time, Gaza fighting is 'proxy war' for entire Mideast

Josh Levs, CNN

"This is unprecedented in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict," says CNN's Ali Younes, an analyst who has covered the region for decades. "Most Arab states are actively supporting Israel against the Palestinians -- and not even shy about it or doing it discreetly."

It's a "joint Arab-Israeli war consisting of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia against other Arabs -- the Palestinians as represented by Hamas."

As the New York Times put it, "Arab leaders, viewing Hamas as worse than Israel, stay silent."

One of the outcomes of the fighting will likely be "the end of the old Arab alliance system that has, even nominally, supported the Palestinians and their goal of establishing a Palestinian state," Younes says.

"The Israel-Hamas conflict has laid bare the new divides of the Middle East," says Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "It's no longer the Muslims against the Jews. Now it's the extremists -- the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and their backers Iran, Qatar and Turkey -- against Israel and the more moderate Muslims including Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia."

"It's a proxy war for control or dominance in the Middle East," says CNN's Fareed Zakaria.

To understand why and what all this means, we need to begin with understanding of Hamas.

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hamas, which has controlled the Palestinian government in Gaza for years, is an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood. To many Americans, the brotherhood is familiar for its central role in the power struggle for Egypt. But it's much larger than that.

"The Muslim Brotherhood is international, with affiliated groups in more than 70 countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE," says Eric Trager of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The Arab Spring showed the region that uprisings can lead to the Brotherhood gaining power. So it's a threat to the governments it opposes.

"Israel's ongoing battle against Hamas is part of a wider regional war on the Muslim Brotherhood," says the Soufan Group, which tracks global security. "Most Arab states share Israel's determination to finish the movement off once and for all, but they are unlikely to be successful."

"From the perspective of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE and some other Arab states, what the Israeli Prime Minister is doing is fighting this war against Hamas on their behalf so they can finish the last stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood," Younes says.

"Arab governments and official Arab media have all but adopted the Israeli view of who is a terrorist and who is not. Egyptian and Saudi-owned media are liberal in labeling the Muslim Brotherhood as 'terrorists' and describing Hamas as a 'terrorist organization.' It's a complete turnabout from the past, when Arab states fought Israel and the U.S. in the international organizations on the definition of terrorism, and who is a terrorist or a 'freedom fighter.'"

Egypt

Egypt's new President vowed during his campaign that he would finish off the Muslim Brotherhood. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the former military chief, deposed Egypt's first freely elected leader, President Mohamed Morsy of the Muslim Brotherhood, last year following mass protests against Morsy's rule.

El-Sisi was elected officially in June.

"In Egypt you have a regime that came to power by toppling a Muslim Brotherhood government," says Trager. "It's therefore in an existential conflict with the Brotherhood. So it doesn't want to see Hamas, the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, emerge stronger in a neighboring territory."

Egypt also has another reason to stand against Hamas: rising violence and instability in Sinai, the northern part of Egypt that borders Israel and Gaza. Hamas' network of tunnels includes some in and out of Egypt used to smuggle goods include weapons for attackson Israeli civilians.

 Read the complete article

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/31/world/meast/israel-gaza-region/index.html