By Shahzad Masood Roomi
Though the contours of recently formed 34-nation strong military alliance by
Saudi Arabia are not clear so far, but the way it has been announced and the
way US and UK are reacting on it is something which gives rise to some critical
questions;
1. What will be mandate of this alliance as far as territorial integrity of
member states are concerned?
2. What will be
the formula of sharing the troops in its operations?
3. How the
alliance members would decide to conduct an operation or against it if there is
a dead lock between the member states?
4. Who will bear
the expenses of operations of this alliance?
5. Why this
alliance has a clear sectarian overtone in its formation? Why Iran and Syria
are not part of it?
6. How this
alliance would overcome the impression of being a Sunni alliance especially in
Iran and Syria?
7. Which
terrorist outfits apart from ISIS this alliance has identified as threat and
with which criteria?
8. How can Saudi
Arabia unilaterally include or exclude countries in this alliance? Has Saudi
monarchy given that mandate by rest of the Muslim World?
9. Adel
al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, said the coalition would share
intelligence and deploy troops if necessary. If that is the case, why there was
no meeting of all military or intelligence chiefs from member states? How this
understanding was reached (if there is an understanding at all)?
10. The way US
and UK have welcomed the announcement of this alliance, it implies that now ‘troops
on ground’, in Syria, would be from Muslim nations. Who they will be fighting against
and under what mandate?
These questions
are critical. Each and every one of them and needs to be answered honestly and
urgently. This requires an in-depth analysis of this Saudi idea of forming a
Sunni military alliance and possible strategic repercussions it can have for
Muslim World and for Saudi Arabia itself.
ANALYSIS:
Saudi Foreign
minister, while talking to media in Paris, also sighted “the threat of
terrorism and state failure on the rise, and a growing leadership vacuum in the
Arab and Islamic world” as primary drivers behind Riyadh’s announcement of this
military alliance. Question remains, if Riyadh is so concerned about these
things within Muslim world, why no initiative has been taken by Saudi
government to form a body to seek the root causes of these threats and to
contemplate strategies to mitigate the threats by developing solutions for long
term instead of trying to play leader by an attempt to “institutionalizing cooperation
in combatting terrorism”?
As it is evident that there are too many questions which need to be addressed and
answered else this military alliance would fail even before its very first
operation. Furthermore, the impression that Saudis are forming this military
alliance on the behest of US and the West must be eradicated through
transparent announcement of scope, goal and rationale of this alliance.
Ironically, Pakistan has announced to be part of this alliance but at the same
time has also said that the quantum of its participation will be determined
later on when more details about the objectives of this alliance would be
available. Clearly, by blindly accepting to be part of this military alliance,
Pakistan has made a desperate attempt to not to disturb Saudis this time like
it did to them on Yemen issue.
But question remains is it a wise strategy? Not at All!
Pakistan is venturing into a military alliance whose actions in Middle East
could have serious sectarian backlash at home and then there is our own precarious
security profile which already presents a bleak law and order and security
situation where the state is struggling to grapple with its own internal and
external security challenges. With a restive Afghan border in the west, a belligerent
India on the east, Baluch insurgency in the southwest and urban law and order
break down in Karachi in the South, it is very difficult to fathom that how
Pakistan will manage to help this military alliance expect intelligence and
knowledge sharing.
Strangely enough, UN is not even concerned and this leads to a bigger question
that why an issue like terrorism is not being debated at the global forum like
UN? There is no definition of terrorism. There is no consensus over the root
causes of global terrorism. There is no classification about types of terrorism
(like state-terrorism, Non state actor-terrorism, financial-terrorism etc.) so
that, in order to find its solution, policymakers and academics can understand
what lies within these definitions and categorization. It is my firm belief
that unless and until this debate is not initiated in the UN, global terrorism
will prevail. Muslim world is the most affected part by terrorism and yet the silence
and inaction, within Muslim comity of nations, on taking the issue of global
terrorism to the UN is complete and total. Completely ironic!
“The Saudis
feel they are under attack from the media suggesting they are responsible for
Daesh (Isis),” said Mustafa Alani of the Gulf Research Centre, which often
reflects thinking in Riyadh. “They felt a need to answer this not by counter
propaganda but by a realistic project.”
And then there is an
equally important question is of terrorists’ ideology which is not being
addressed or even debated anywhere in the world not even within Muslim World.
And among other factors, this is yet another reason why this military alliance
by Saudi Arabia is not a very good idea to combat ISIS. What Saudi strategic
community (if there is one) is not realizing is that in modern incarnation of
warfare (4th and 5th generation warfare) the ‘narrative’ is
the ultimate weapon which lies at the heart of any effective response strategy
against organizations like ISIS who harvest its power from distortion and
misinterpreting of the Islamic political ideals like Caliphate. But it seems
that even after witnessing the failure of military-oriented strategies of the
US and West in the Middle East, Saudi intelligentsia is advising for a similar
military-oriented response strategy.
The Guardian’s Middle
East editor, Ian Black has quoted Mustafa Alani of the Gulf Research Center,
which often reflects thinking in Riyadh, saying, “The Saudis feel they are
under attack from the media suggesting they are responsible for Daesh (Isis). They
felt a need to answer this not by counter propaganda but by a realistic
project.”
“The nature of terrorism is changing. It is
not only hit-and-run. It is not only suicide bombings. Its objective now is
state-building. If you want to fight Daesh in Iraq you can’t send police or
security people. You need to send real military forces.”
If Gulf Research Center
is really that influential as being claimed by Ian Black, then it is evident
that major flaw is within Saudi strategic community who is not addressing the
core issue of ideology and propaganda but is suggesting a more kinetic approach
to handle terrorism; a failed strategy to start with!
Actually this military alliance
is an attempt by Saudi Arabia to position itself in the Middle East as a leader
against growing influence of Iran and to dispel the impression that Saudis have
a role in rise of ISIS. If Saudis will try to achieve these geopolitical goals
through this military alliance it is again a plan destined to be doomed sooner
than later. Saudis should have learned from Russia how to deploy the media to
counter the propaganda and present their own narrative across the globe. There
is no scarcity of resources to Saudi government. But it seems that Saudis are
more interested in power display to both Iran and to strengthen its authority among
‘Sunni Muslim states’ after it is diminishing within ‘Muslim World’.
Last but not the least, if
at any point in near future, this alliance decides to send forces to Syria
there would always be a high probability that the entire Muslim world will
indulge into a grand sectarian war where Iran, Syria, Iraq will be on one side
and this Saudi military alliance on the other. Zionist forces will be more than
happy to push the regional scenario in that direction as well because this will
make their plans to redraw the map of Middle East much easier.
These are distressing
times for Muslims. There is a complete and total collapse of leadership in
Ummah due to which it is heading towards an implosion which will only result in
formation of many smaller and weak countries based on ethnic, sectarian and linguistic
divide and a very powerful Israel!
It is a very realistic
near future scenario for the entire Muslim World, Pakistan must initiate aggressive
military-diplomacy in order to warn Riyadh about its dangerous miscalculations
on strategic issues. So far, Pakistan has done good to not to say a straight no
to Saudis in order to prevent a more aggressive response from Arab world like
we saw from Abu Dubai after Pakistan refused to send troops to Yemen but no way
Pakistan can afford to let Riyadh go with this self-destruct strategy of
forming a Sunni only military-alliance to counter Iran under the pretext of
fighting terrorism. This is a dangerous trap set for the every noticeable
Muslim nation. Time to act is Now!
