By Shahzad Masood Roomi
As Pakistani Prime Minister and COAS are in Riyadh in a bid to cool tempers in the Gulf kingdom over Pakistan's refusal to provide troops for war in Yemen, the situation in Yemen is getting worse by the day. The visit is being seen as an attempt by senior political and military leadership to make Saudi ruling elite understand that why Pakistan could not join Saudi offences in Yemen. The outcome of this tour would play a critical role in discourse of Saudi actions in Yemen. But regardless of the outcome of the PM's visit, it is obvious that the conflict in Yemen has grown too big for the Saudis alone to resolve it and bring it to a logical termination. So what went wrong in Saudi strategic thinking regarding Houthis in Yemen?
This is what happens when strategic miscalculations are made while weighing the policy options. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia is not the only country in this crisis which made dangerous miscalculations. Pakistan’s political leadership also failed to analyze the situation and potential outcome scenarios and now consequently another diplomatic crisis has emerged at the bilateral level between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on this issue of Yemen.
Saudi Arabia launched indiscriminate bombing campaign in Yemen against the Houthis rebels (Iranian Proxies) without much intelligence collection about their strengths & weaknesses and without identifying and categorizing the key targets for air campaign. Next, the Saudi ruling monarch assumed that Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt would come to help and fight their war in Yemen. But to their utter surprise none of these transpired.
Houthis proved too defiant for Saudi air assault and this is not the first time the futility of applying the air power alone has been proven. Earlier, the US campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq met early tactical wins but later on proved too costly for Washington as senseless aerial bombing in Afghanistan and Iraq turned large portion of local populace in these countries against the US. The price of these air-power oriented military campaigned is being paid by US troops on ground (which like Saudi operation joined the campaign after the aerial assaults) and the policymakers who have no idea how to bring these two protracted wars to an end with face saving exits. Saudis have committed the same strategic blunder here. Instead of studying the aftermath of American air campaigns, they repeated the same mistakes.
After a month of bombing the Saudis were convinced that they have forced the Houthis to come to the negotiation table but today, according to BBC, Saudi-led coalition warplanes have struck Houthi rebels across Yemen in fresh raids, two days after announcing the end of a month-long air campaign.
While according to Fox News, Yemen's defiant Shiite rebels press their offensive as Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes
It left the fate of "Restoring Hope", which was announced on Tuesday after a month of bombing, hanging in balance as it looks like Saudi led coalition is again back to square one.
Saudi air strikes are being complemented by artillery support as well. But due to lack of clear target identification and damage assessment the completion of the objectives remains uncertain and elusive.
How the outcome of this new round of aerial bombing is going to be any different from the previous one? This is the question no one in Saudi led coalition has any answer of.
Military sales of weapons to from the US and Russia to the Gulf States is also fueling the fire. According to the Guardian, "Security experts express fears for region’s stability amid record weapons sales from west and Russia’s missile deal with Iran." An estimated $18 Billion have already been spent on weapon imports by Gulf States with Saudi Arabia and UAE remain the biggest buyers of western weapon systems.
All these rapid developments are not only shrinking Saudi options in Yemen but this fluid strategic milieu is creating problems for Pak-Saudi bilateral relations as well. In Pakistan, both the political leadership and the masses are clearly divided on the Yemen issue while Pakistan Army remains seriously concerned about this fast unfolding scenario. This is why from the onset of this crisis, Pakistan Army leadership showed concerns over this crisis.
A faction in Pakistani policy analysts and experts of defense and security considers that PM Nawaz Sharif made a mistake while assuring Saudi king full support without consulting with army leadership.
And the way the stance of both Pakistani government and the Saudis dignitaries (visited Pakistan frequently in recent weeks) has been changed over the time, it is evident that the assumption of Prime Minister Nawaz assuring Pakistan Army's troops to Saudi king is not off the mark. The fact that PML(N) government was unwilling to reveal what exactly Saudis had demanded from Pakistan Army also amplify this assumption.
 |
| An info-graphic appeared in one of the leading Arab news agencies at start of the Yemen war 2015, showing Pakistan as a part of Saudi air campaign. Pakistan never joined Saudi coalition forces; not so far! |
During the first few days of the conflict, the news given by the entire Arab media was that Pakistan wanted to be involved in Saudi led campaign in Yemen. Then it was reported that Saudis wanted a 3-4 year deployment of a full Pakistan Army corps under their command. (Pakistan has 9 active corps. 7 defensive while two strike crops. While a specialized nuclear strategic force command handles country’s nuclear arsenal). After few days, Arab media and few of their Pakistani supporters start giving impression that all Saudi Arabia had ever asked for was political support only and that they were not interested in any Pakistani troops. Then Pakistani parliament debated on the issue and news is that any threat to Saudi sovereignty would provoke a strong action from Pakistan but Pakistan would not send any troops to Yemen or Saudi Arabia unless that threat is materialized. This stance by Pakistan drew severe criticism from Saudi Arabian allies especially from UAE.
But if we analyze the Saudi request of putting Pakistani troops under the Saudi command closely, it has a major intrinsic problem with it which Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif could not realize, and that is the demand of giving Pakistani troops under the Saudi military command. Pakistan was fully aware that Hothis would be never able to mount a serious threat against Saudi Arabia so the resolution included the possibility of sending troops to Saudi Arabia. But the problem is when command and control of the troops will be changed all Pakistani units will receive their commands from Saudis and not from Pakistani commanders. Riyadh would be controlling the deployment of these troops not Rawalpindi. Once under Saudi authorities, Pakistani troops will be storming to Yemen. There is no doubt about it! This is something Pakistan Army is fully aware of and the potential outcome for troops back at home as well.
The fact is that Pakistan Army cannot afford to plunge into an overseas crisis with complex geopolitical and sectarian dynamics regardless of true nature of Saudi demand about Pakistani troops. But at the same time, Pakistan can also not afford to turn away a strategic partner like Saudi Arabia. There are ways in which Pakistan Army can help Saudi forces in their operations against Houthis. Pakistan Army can share its experiences against the asymmetric militants. But the best thing that Pakistan can do is honestly tell the Saudis about the strategic, operational and tactical miscalculations they have made during the last six months on Yemen.
There cannot be any better choice for this job than General Raheel Sharif. He has fought Pakistani case through military diplomacy in Afghanistan and now the bilateral relations between Pakistan Army and Afghan Army are taking a new turn in positive direction. If Pakistan Army has learnt its lessons regarding Afghanistan and now it is pursuing other options to protect the same vital national interests for which it supported militant factions against Kabul previously, convincing our Saudi friends on the same strategic mindset regarding Yemen must not be impossible. But before telling Saudis about using soft-power in Yemen, Pakistan Army needs to tell the same to Pakistan's own political elite particularly to ruling PML(N). Apart from that, Pakistan must declare its policy regarding the holy cities of Makkah and Madina to end any possible strategic confusion in this regard.
