By Shahzad Masood Roomi
Pakistani government has accepted the summery request of Pakistan Navy to purchase of 8 new submarines from China. This was revealed by Pakistan Navy officials on March 31 while briefing National Assembly's defence committee. It was also reported that Pakistan Navy is looking for conventional submarines from European sources as well.
The country was in search of an affordable diesel electric submarine (SSK) since which could provide customization for Pakistani developed cruise missiles (CM) and Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM). This capability was critical for Pakistan Navy's submarine to put Pakistan's Naval strategic force command (NSFC) in operation. Current fleet of Pakistan Navy submarine comprises on French Agosta-90B and Agosta-70 submarine with no capability to fire CM or SLBM. Though Agosta 90-B is capable firing SM-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles but it lacks the ability to launch long range cruise and ballistic missiles.
The negotiations between Pakistan and China on a submarine deal initiated in 2011 when India opted for French made Scorpion submarines which are more advanced than Pakistani Agosta-90Bs acquired in 1990s. Six Scorpene submarines are currently being built at the Mazagon Dock Ltd in Mumbai with technology from French firm DCNS under project code named P-75. Around the same time when India initiated project -75, Pakistan was also interested in German built Type-214 SSKs which were considered an adequate response of modernization of Indian submarine fleet. But issues like higher cost and German refusal to upgrade the subs to make them able to fire cruise missiles. Pakistan already has tested surface and air launched cruise missiles and a submarine launched version is next logical step.
Though it is not clear which type has been selected by Pakistan Navy but IHS Janes has reported a Pakistani Foreign Ministry official saying that "in the recent past, there have been reports of discussions for the Type 041 submarines". It is believed that Yuan Class (Type 041) submarine has displacement in between 3500-4000 ton and is equipped with YJ-2 (YJ-82) anti-ship missiles (Mach 0.9, Range = 120 km), YJ-803 (180 Km) and a combination of Yu-4 (SAET-50) passive homing and Yu-3 (SET-65E) active/passive homing torpedoes. Yu-6 wake-homing torpedoes may also be carried. Yuan class is considered the successor of Type 039 Song Class submarine making it 3rd model of Chinese indigenous SSKs. Type 039 itself was a successor of Type 035 Ming Class submarine. Type 041, just like 039, is believed to be a combination of both western and Chinese technologies. Germany supplied propulsion system for Type-039 and according to a secret Indian report published in 2013, China was to built 15 more Yuan class submarines with German engines. In Type 039, three German MTU 16V396SE84 diesel engines drive the large asymmetrical seven-bladed skewed propeller through a single shaft. The sub is said to have an operational range of 8,000 km. According to Global Security website, The Yuan incorporates lessons from the PLAN's experience with the Kilo. The Yuan incorporates some of the best features of the Song and the Kilo. Equipped with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, the Type 041 has also an export version as well which has been dubbed as S-20 with some reduced capabilities such as AIP system, lower total length (66m vs 75m of Type-041) and lower displacement around 2300 tons. It is not clear, if Pakistan has opted for S-20 (with modular AIP as is being offered by Chinese) or the original Type 041 which has been deployed by PLAN but there is a general consensus among maritime experts that these submarines would come with some specific customization as per the requirements of Pakistan Navy. Some sources also of the view that Pakistan Navy is looking to work with two Chinese submarines S-26 and S-30 and both of these are based on new Type-032 Qing Class conventional submarine which remains more advanced than Type 041. Qing Class submarines have a length of more than 92 meters and displacement in excess of 6500 tons. AIP equipped submarine has special Vertical Launch (VLS) tubes for CJ-10 Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACM). The deal for Qing class between Pakistan and China was reported in 2011. Both Yuan and Qing class submarines are believed to equipped with CY-1 anti-submarine rocket as well. Type-032 was completed in 2013 and has been in sea trials since then.
It is also believed that Pakistan will built some of these submarines under transfer of technology just like Pakistan build one of four Chinese F-22P frigates. Reportedly, these subs would be built at Submarine Rebuild Complex (SRC) in Orama. There is no confirmed official statement regarding the cost of this entire fleet of submarines but there is a general understanding that an AIP equipped submarine equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles will not cost anything less than $400 million. Buy this estimation the minimum total cost of 8 submarines would be around $4 billion including training, logistics and ToT making it the largest order in history of Pakistan Navy. China will probably provide Pakistan with soft loan for this deal just like JF-17 fighter program,
ANALYSIS
A deal of 8 Chinese conventional subs would be a leap forward in Pakistan's maritime security considering the prevailing balance of maritime power projection balance in Arabian Sea which is overwhelming in Indian Navy's favor. Indians are monitoring this deal very closely. After the evolution of Indian submarine fleet and its proposed future plans, such a deal from Pakistan was expected since long. The decision should had been made in 2010-11 times but most probably Pakistan Navy was also keen to observe Chinese submarine program and its success. All the potential Chinese submarines discussed above are part of PLAN fleet since number of years now and this gave Pakistan Navy evaluation team considerable confidence in Chinese system. Considering Pakistan's demand for customized platforms made China the obvious choice for such project.
But if we look closely at this news, this is not all about Chinese submarines. Pakistan Navy is looking for European platforms as well in form of used subs. Question is, Why so many sub-surface platforms Pakistan is keen to induct? What Pakistan is trying to achieve here in strategic sense with such procurement? One possible explanation of this quest is enhanced requirements of Pakistan Navy due to recent extension in Pakistan's maritime boundaries. Another and more precise answer would be one encompassing Pakistan's Naval Strategic Force Command and its operational status. Evidently, Pakistan is looking for having two tiers in its submarine fleet like all major naval powers. One consisting on conventional submarines like Agosta-90Bs and whatever used sub Pakistan can get from Europe while second tier consisting on submarines capable to firing SLBM giving Pakistan robust 2nd strike capability by the end of the decade as part of its minimum strategic deterrence policy. It must be remembered that the requirement of 12 conventional submarine were orignally part of the Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP), a comprehensive program envisioned in 2010 for long term modernization of all three forces of Pakistan.
