Syrian Conflict Enters In Disturbing New Phase

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Just days after the fateful incident of Russian SU-24, Syrian conflict is taking a rather uglier turn as more disturbing events are unfolding. 

In the latest developments, Syrian government has accused US led coalition warplanes of attacking a Syrian Army Camp in Deir ez Zor province. The incident is first of its kind which has taken place amid ongoing allegations and counter-allegations between Turkey and Russia triggered in the aftermath of SU-24 downing row and can very easily trigger a new round of more kinetic confrontation between US and Russian led alliances.

The Syrian government has said that 3 people were dead while 13 got injured and number of military vehicles were destroyed. According to Syrian government, the coalition jets fired nine missiles at an army camp in the Deir ez Zor province, which remains mostly under the control of Islamic State. 

The Syrian Foreign Ministry has filed an official protest with the UN Security Council regarding the US-led coalition’s airstrikes on Syrian troops, Syria’s SANA official news agency reported Monday.

“Syria strongly condemns the act of aggression by the US-led coalition that contradicts the UN Charter on goals and principles. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent letters to the UN Secretary General and the UN Security Council,” SANA quoted the foreign ministry as saying.

US and Coalition Rejects Allegations:

The US and allied nations’ coalition has denied the Syrian claims.

Brett McGurk, Obama’s envoy to Syria, on his Twitter account, said that there had been no coalition strikes anywhere within 55 kilometers (35 miles) of the said camp.

"Reports of coalition involvement are false," he wrote in his tweet.

Apart from him, the coalition spokesman Colonel Steve Warren also commented on Syrian allegations saying, ”We’ve seen those Syrian reports but we did not conduct any strikes in that part of Deir ez Zor yesterday. So we see no evidence,” 

The Deir ez Zor province is situated in eastern Syria, and is largely controlled by Islamic State (IS). The region is of significant strategic importance to the terrorist group, as it contains a number of oilfields, which are a major source of revenue for IS.

Syrian government is declaring the US led coalition bombing in Syria against ISIS as illegal. According to some unconfirmed reports, President Putin has reportedly already declared the Syrian crisis a beginning of World War III and forces have been ordered to prepare for a global scale conflict. 

In another related development, Iraq has given Turkey an ultimatum of 48 hours to leave Iraqi territory while Turkey has said that it has right to protect its soldiers. This ultimatum comes after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's letter of his Iraqi counterpart Haider Al Abadi in which it is promised and assured that there will be no deployment of Turkish forces in Iraq until Baghdad's concerns are addressed. 

ANALYSIS:

If this string of events prolongs it can easily get out of control and no one will be able to prevent a regional conflict at much larger scale. The region is slowly drifting towards a larger conflict. with UN clearly finding itself irrelevant. These are perilous trends for peace and security. Any regional conflict triggered from Syria, would not only jeopardize global peace but would also destroy UN as global conflict resolution body.

It seems all the major stakeholders fighting against a common threat of IS have a complete diplomatic breakdown and events like Su-24 downing and alleged US coalition strike on an Syrian camp can easily send wrong signals regarding the intentions of opposite alliance. It is time that countries like Pakistan or China who are not involved in this mess take some initiative to salvage the prospects of peace. Any forum can be utilized for such an diplomatic incentive but whatever has to be done it must be done on war footings. Trends in Syria are obviously turning disturbing it not alarming!

Iran: Upping the ante in Iraq against ISIS

Reportedly, Iran has deployed its Fajr-5 artillery rockets, Fateh-110 missiles, and their launchers in Tikrit to fight against ISIS. This move is part of Iran’s escalation in Middle East chaos. Question remains, Is there any actual threat to Iran from ISIS or this decision is based only on geopolitical needs of Iran for which she needs the US help i.e. Nuclear talks, relaxation in oil export sanctions, etc. It seems that this Iranian decision is being derived by Tehran’s political reasons.

It is notice worthy fact that in Iraq and Syria, only Iranian militias and troops keep fighting against ISIS while the US keep supplying weapons to ISIS as Iraqi troops continue to surrender without fighting giving up their weapon stockpiles to ISIS? i.e. as it took place in Falujia and Ramadi.

Though the Americans are showing great concern over Iran’s intervention in Iraq no step has been taken so far to prevent Iran from escalating the situation in Iraq. It seems that certain forces are actually encouraging Tehran to escalate the crisis and be part of it.

In this regard NY Times story titled ‘’Iran Sent Arms to Iraq to Fight ISIS, U.S. Says’’, published on 16th March, contains Gen Martin E Dempsey ‘s statement of Marach 3rd which he gave while appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “This is the most overt conduct of Iranian support, in the form of artillery and other things.”, he alluded to the deployment of the rockets and missiles.

Tehran is very confident so far about its geo-strategy in the region it is evident that Iran would never able to sustain a prolonged high intensity conflict in Iraq, Syria and possibly in Yemen. This move by Tehran would only intensify and complicate the chaos in Middle East further. It could easily lead to an outright sectarian war.

So, is Iran falling into trap set for it in Iraq? How Iran will be able to terminate the war that she is going to intensify and amplify? What would be the sectarian implications of growing interference of Iran in Iraq?

By looking at the US strategy to “fight” ISIS it is evident that after arming various armed gangs in Middle East including ISIS, now Iran has been lured in this chaos.

Apart from these concerns, there is a strong possibility of spill over of this war inside Iran. It is known fact that CIA has used organizations like Jindullah against Iran from Pakistan in the past!

IRAQ: Battle for Mosul Begins in Tikrit

After 9 months of non-stop violence and anarchy in the country, finally, Iraqi government has decided to launch first major offensive against ISIS to recapture Tikrit city in Salauhddin Province of the country, located North to capital Baghdad. Tikrit was overrun by the ISIS last year. The city holds importance for being hometown of previous Baathist leader of the country, Saddam Hussian. According to Iraqi and Iranian media, Qassem Soleimani - commander of the Quds Force covert operations unit in Iran's Revolutionary Guard - was in Salahuddin province to help coordinate the operation.

Some 30,000 troops backed by air power and artillery fire power are going to initiate operation from various directions. This operation is critically important for any future operations to capture ISIS stronghold Mosul located further North to Tikrit. The US forces think the major US/Iraq offensive to retake Mosul can begin in April or May but that time table depends upon the outcome of Tikrit operation by Iraqi forces who have already captured a nearby oil refinery town of Baiji. The road leading to Mosul passes through Tikrit.

Interestingly, the US air power would not assist the Iraqi forces during the operation in Tikrit. It is unclear right now if the Iraqi forces alone would be able to get Tikrit back. It must be noticed that all previous operations to get the town back have failed resulting in large number of death casualties of Iraqi troops. In this backdrop, the absence of US air power is not only perplexing but dangerous for fresh offensive as well. The second caveat to the success of this operation remains inclusion of Shia private militia. Since the last year, ISIS massacred large number of Shia fighters in the same area of Salauhddin province and now the Shia fighters are looking to avenge that bloodshed. This may create serious problem for operational integrity of the offensive.