Latest Scuffle Between China and the US

(IHS Jane's) The Pentagon has confirmed that an "unsafe" encounter occurred in mid-September when a US Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft was intercepted by Chinese fighter aircraft over the Yellow Sea.

The latest incident follows one in November 2014 when a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Shenyang J-11B interceptor performed what US officials called a "dangerous" manoeuvre close to a US Navy Boeing P-8A maritime patrol aircraft in international airspace off Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

Speaking at a regular briefing in Washington, DC, Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook confirmed that a RC-135 was intercepted on 15 September by a pair of Chinese Xian JH-7 fighter-bombers in international airspace over the Yellow Sea.

Cook added that the intercept happened about 80 miles east of the Shandong peninsula, and that "one of the manoeuvres conducted by the Chinese aircraft during this intercept was perceived as unsafe by the RC-135 air crew" although he stressed that there was no indication that a near collision had occurred.

The intercept was originally reported by the Washington Free Beacon website, which described the JH-7 as having "crossed very close" to the nose of the RC-135.

Analysis:

With global power transformation acceleration, the existing global power is reacting to the overtures being made by inspiring global power. US and Chinese strategic interests are heading towards a collision course with the rise of Chinese military power. The US is desperate of keep an eye on Chinese development along the entire Pacific Rim of Indian Ocean but Chinese are now openly confronting such US moves.Question remains if any of these two major economies and militaries can afford such head on collision? Whatever may be the outcome of any such eventuality for both of these, it certainly would be catastrophic for the entire Asia.

World War II: Battle of Midway Atoll, Birth of Air-Sea Battle Concept

The details of Battle of Midway Atoll can be accessed on the following link
http://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/battle-of-midway

Analysis

It has been 73 years since Japanse and the US navies confronted each other in the Pacific, in June 1942, during the war for Midway Atoll in World War II. The war has been described as "the most stunning and decisive blow in the history of naval warfare" by renowned British military historian, John Keegan and very rightly so. This was the sea battle which put Japanese maritime victories in the Pacific to an end effectively clearing the way for the US Navy to assert itself in the Pacific Ocean throughout the war.

The outcome of this Japanese misadventure, after some earlier successes in the Pacific, carries many lessons for the strategic thinkers and military planners.

The most fundamental strategic blunder Japanese combined fleet commander, Admiral Yamamoto made was that he planned a complex maritime operation to lure the US carrier fleet into a trap on faulty assumption and extremely poor military intelligence. The strength of the US Navy and morale of the US Naval officers were miscalculated to a dangerous extent and consequently, not only Yamamoto lost the battle but all his 4 aircraft carrier that took part in this attack along with more than 240 aircraft and 3000 soldiers on board.

Though its was only in 2010 when the US strategic planner embraced air-sea battle as an integrated war doctrine, battle of Midway Atoll was the first decisive war where the US Navy and Air Force conducted joint raids after raids on attacking Japanese naval fleet.

Chinese Artificial Islands: Advantages and Vulnerbilities

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

This is the artificial island in South China Sea recently built by China as part of her land reclamation project. This Chinese project has sparked a heated debate in global strategic community. South China Sea is among the most volatile maritime strategic hot spots in Indian Ocean. This particular island is located in disputed territory of South China Sea and this is why there is so much debate going on about this Chinese military project. Recently, A US Navy P-8A flew over the island and captured some very detailed pictures proving that Chinese have put their construction work on the island in the next phase. A bitter exchange of words took place between P8-A crew and Chinese Navy while US Navy plane carried out reconnaissance mission revealing details of Chinese mysterious artificial military island. After the incident, Chinese official declared the US flight as an action threatening peace in South Asia Sea. But latest media reports suggest that this was not the last such events where Chinese disapproved the US spying on her island. Australian Navy is planning a 'freedom of navigation' mission to show its disapproval of Chinese project. Australia is a US ally in Asia-Pacific Pivot strategy announced by President Obama in 2010-11.

Detailed photograph taken by the US Navy P-8A shows construction work on Chinese artificial island.

Latest, reports suggest that China has put weapons on the island. After these reports, there is a broad consensus among global security experts, that tensions over the South China Sea are set to escalate even further. As Chinese have shown their dissatisfaction over US spying its artificial island, the US defense secretary has defended the US spy plane flights over Chinese island. "There should be no mistake in this, the United State will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows", said Ash Carter, US defense secretary.

Chinese military buildup has been among the most visible geopolitical trends in last 15 years. This military buildup is translation of growing Chinese economic strength. Latest reports suggest that IMF has approved Chinese Yuan as a next global reserve currency along with US Dollar, EU Euro and Japanese Yen. This economic and military rise of China is the most vivid proof of global shift of power from the west to east. But problem with such power shift is that they are seldom peaceful and considering the high stakes of both the US and China in South China Sea, many security experts around the world consider that a war between both these powers is inevitable. 

Chinese Navy and Air Force are adopting aggressive policy as Beijing is looking to expand is capability to project power away from mainland China. Recently, Russia and China concluded naval exercises in Mediterranean Sea sending clear signal to NATO about the emergence of multi-polar world order.

There is no doubt that artificial island is a major step forward in Chinese strategy to project maritime power in South China Sea. Some experts have declared the island a non-sinkable Chinese aircraft carrier which is going to pose serious challenge to the US and allied maritime vessels in the region. But is Chinese strategy to build artificial islands in South China Sea going to yield the strategic results as Beijing has envisioned them?

Analysis:   

This Chinese artificial island is not the only project of its kind in the region. Previously, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippine have carried out similar projects in their respective waters, but problem with the Chinese project is that it is located in disputed waters where number of regional countries have claims over these waters. It makes this artificial island base a dangerous proposition to begin with.

Apart from that there is a question of building a naval island and coping with its vulnerabilities due to modern ballistic missile threats.

China is following the US footsteps as far as its island maritime strategy is concerned. During and after the World War II, the US established naval bases and stations on islands across the world. The islands like Midway Atoll and Diego Garcia provide strategic footprint to the US Navy in Pacific and Indian Ocean.  Though these islands are invaluable assets for the projection of maritime power and provide operational freedom for US Navy away from its own sea shores as they extend the line of sight for the US Navy due to radar stations and observational posts established on these islands. But at the same time, these islands can very easily become the operational nightmare due to their natural geographic vulnerability in open seas.

There is already a debate is going on within the US national security council about rising precision strike capabilities of Chinese Navy and threat it poses to the US bases in Indian Ocean and the Pacific. In 2014, Carnes Lord and Andrew S Erickson, both professors at US Naval War College, penned “Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific” which presented a case study about vulnerabilities of US naval basing in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

“American seapower requires a robust constellation of bases to support global power projection. Given the rise of China and the emergence of the Asia-Pacific as the center of global economic growth and strategic contention, nowhere is American basing access more important than in this region. Yet manifold political and military challenges, stemming not least of which from rapidly-improving Chinese long-range precision strike capabilities, complicate the future of American access and security here.”, says the writers.

The advent of guided missile technology and advancements in ballistic missiles submarines in naval warfare after the World War II changed the entire complexion of forward bases on these islands and their security. In any war scenario, such islands would naturally become the first target of enemy naval fleets and respective aviation wing. Today, both the US and Chinese Navies operate ballistic missiles which can literally remove such advanced naval bases from the face of the planet along with everyone and everything on the islands. In this backdrop, it would be natural to ask if this artificial Chinese island is going to be a strategic asset to PLAN or its biggest vulnerability in case of actual conflict?