What COAS Meant by 'Entering Into Most Difficult Phase of Operation'?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

While speaking to the APEX committee KPK meeting in Peshawar, COAS has said that state is entering in the most difficult and dangerous phase of operation. He also said that return of Temporary Displaced People (TDPs) is top priority for Pakistan Army.

One may wonder what does "entering most difficult phase of operation" it actually mean.

The answer is simple. COAS has stated the obvious. Sanctuaries of terrorists in FATA have been practically eliminated and what now has been left of TTP is mainly consists of sleeper cells which work in coordination with group's top command hiding in Afghanistan. Tracking these sleeper cells in urban centers, eliminating the TTP's top brass is critical for the final success against TTP. 

Analysis - Resignation of Afghan Intelligence Chief Rehmatullah Nabil

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Afghan intelligence chief, Rahmatullah Nabil, resigned on 10th December 2015. Differences with President Ashraf Ghani on his efforts to forge closer ties with Pakistan is described the reason for his resignation.

Prior to his resignation, he was staunch opponent of the idea of any kind of diplomatic ties of Kabul with Pakistan. He consistently blamed Pakistan for every law and order or security related incident in Afghanistan. His opposition to engagement with Pakistan is said to be the main cause behind Afghan government's decision to shelve a key intelligence sharing agreement between Pakistan's ISI and Afghan NDS. Both organizations signed a MoU for close cooperation in May earlier this year. It is being reported that Rehmatullah Nabil and many of his deputies in NDS were against any such arrangements.

Under the authority of Rehmatullah Nabil, NDS released the news of death of Mullah Omar just before the start of second phase of Afghan peace process between Kabul and Afghan Taliban earlier in July this year. This news not only derailed the talks but also created serious frictions within the Afghan Taliban. Combat commanders began to ask why such critical information was kept hidden from them and they began doubting the loyalty of their superiors with them and to the movement. Afghan Taliban divided to a considerable extent on the question of nominating new 'Ameer' (chieftain) as well. NDS presented these developments as major successes to President Ghani who then started to get cold footed about his own initiatives to engage with Pakistan on diplomatic level in order to find a political solution to the Afghan crisis. Afghan media began Pakistan bashing on the behest of NDS at the same time. Actually, it was believed that that charisma of Mullah Omar was the sole factor behind the cohesion of Taliban as resistance force and once the news of his demise will be made public, Taliban will wither away easily. Seriously, this proved to be a dangerous strategic miscalculation on the part of Afghan intelligence and political leadership.

Revelation of two years old death of Mullah Omar in Pakistan and it being kept from combat commanders created serious problem for senior Afghan Taliban leadership. In order to prove their cohesion as a well-organized resistance force, Taliban not only appointed a new Ameer quickly but also began what can easily be categorized as the most daring assaults and attacks on Afghan/NATO bases. They were able to capture the Kunduz city in October, earlier this year as well, from where they retreated later on as part of their war strategy. All of this was happening amid an extremely volatile security environment where ISIS/Daesh was also making its presence felt. Some Afghan Taliban joined the ISIS in Afghanistan. Majority of them were those who didn’t like the appointment of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor as new leader. TTP had already announced its allegiance to Daesh in Afghanistan and their sympathizers in Pakistan also began threatening the expansion of IS in Pakistan. This threat was not taken lightly in Pakistan and COAS Gen. Raheel Sharif had to issue statement with a commitment that Pakistan Army will not allow Daesh even to cast its shadow on Pakistan. This threat still persists.  

Afghan Taliban attacks on NATO/ANA bases continue to grow and NDS’s analysis was blown in their faces. Not only Taliban were able to keep its cohesion but it also become more secretive in its planning and communications and result was one assault after another. This string of attacks still continues. It has been reported that after these attacks, President Ashraf Ghani asked Rehmatullah Nabil to resign and made it clear that he will continue to pursue his earlier plans to engage Pakistan in order to find a political settlement with Taliban (though it will always remain a tough job for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to make Taliban compromise on some of their demands like complete withdrawal of foreign forces).

From the hindsight, resignation of Rehmatullah Nabil puts turbulent bilateral relations during the last year or so into a perspective which vindicates the assertion that NDS was not happy with President Ashraf Ghani's outreach to Pakistan, ISI and NDS mutual intelligence sharing agreement and peace process with Taliban and Pakistan’s role in it. But the ultimate question remains that who was gaining from this growing disaffection between Pakistan and Afghanistan on diplomatic and operational levels?

US and China were also backing the Afghan peace process so it is prudent to think that both these stakeholders were happy with the direction of developments in Afghanistan. In fact, White House spokesperson Josh Earnest called the meeting between Taliban and Kabul representatives in Pakistan “an important step toward advancing prospect for a credible peace.” As it has been said earlier, this breakage of dialogue only complicated the threat matrix for Pakistan. But, India was the only state where the breakage of Pakistan led Afghan peace process was taken as victory of Modi’s diplomacy to isolate Pakistan.  

Regardless to the fate of Afghan peace process, the agreement of mutual intelligence sharing between NDS and ISI is something which can pave the way forward for a durable peace in Afghanistan, FATA and to keep Indian intervention in Pakistan through Afghanistan in check. Resignation of Rehmatullah has already begun proving this true.

“Killing of a key TTP commander, Saeed Daur alias Aryana, in a gun battle with Afghan special task force at Pak-Afghan border the day the Afghan president agreed to renew the efforts to jointly counter terrorism, can be called the first informal sign from Kabul to hunt down Pakistan’s wanted terror targets,” wrote The Nation’s columnist Jawad R Awan while quoting the security services sources.

It was also reported that Duar who was killed in Paktia province of Afghanistan, was a close confidant of former TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud. He managed to cross over to Afghanistan when the operation Zarb-e-Azb reached Mir Ali tehsil of North Waziristan. 

Such developments can ensure a lasting working relationship between ISI and NDS despite all the political impedances during the coming weeks and months. This partnership is crucial for regional stability as through this professional arrangement the secret services of both the nations would understand each other better and would also able to devise common strategies to secure the respective sides of Pak-Afghan border. Previously, Pakistani intelligence and Army was used to be viewed through Indian lens which caused serious trust deficit between the two neighbors.

   

TTP's New Strategy Across the Ungoverned Open Spaces Across the Durand Line

by Shahzad Masood Roomi

Seven Frontier Corps (FC) personnel were killed, in Angoor Adda, early Tuesday morning as unknown militants open fire from the Afghan side of the border.

According to ISPR, “The firing occurred on an FC check post northeast of Angoor Adda in South Waziristan,”. As per media reports, apart from 7 killed, 3 other FC soldiers sustained injuries in the attack. Pakistan has condemned the firing incident very strongly in which 7 FC personnel were killed.

The attacks on Pakistan army from Afghanistan have increased during the last few days. Militants, most probably from TTP, have adopted  a new strategy of hitting Pakistan army check posts on Pak Afghan border from within Afghanistan where TTP has established strongholds after they were pushed out from North Waziristan by Pakistan Army. This strategy is working well so far for TTP and other hostile elements as Pakistan Army cannot chase them in Afghanistan without crossing Durand Line as doing so would be a direct violation of international law. Previously, TTP militants used to mount physical attacks on Pakistan check posts. Such attacks always resulted in heavy TTP casualties in result of Pakistan Army’s retaliation. On some occasions, suicide attacks were also launched on Pakistani troops at Durand Line.

The latest attack on FC post is not an isolated incident highlighting a change in TTP’s tactics but is continuation of series of attacks which started few days back. Earlier on Sunday, at least four soldiers of the Pakistan Army were killed and four others were injured as militant groups fired rockets from across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Khyber Agency.

“Four Pakistan Army soldiers were killed and four others injured due to rocket fire,” an ISPR statement said. “According to reports, rounds fired from Afghanistan side opposite Khyber Agency by terrorists hit a 8,000 feet high Pakistani post in Akhandwala Pass,” the statement added.

Both Afghanistan and Pakistan has no control over vast swathe of open border between the two countries. Terrorists are taking advantage of ungoverned spaces available to them on Pak-Afghan border. Due to these open spaces, this region has been described as global risk.

These attacks are taking place at a time, when Pakistan's PM Nawaz Sharif has just returned from the US where Pakistan was asked to 'do more' in fight against terrorism. While Pakistani delegation failed to raise the issue of presence of TTP and its attacks on Pakistan from Afghanistan. Apart from it,  Pakistan's dossier about Indian involvement in Pakistan from Afghanistan also failed to trigger any US action against Indian or Afghan government. This is not the first time Pakistan shared any vital evidence with the US about Indian involvement in Pakistan, earlier this year, COAS Gen Raheel Sharif also shared the similar evidence with the US authorities in January when he visited the US. But no initiatives were taken by the US government to address Pakistan's security concerns. This inaction by Washington is also an encouraging factor for all the anti-Pakistan entities operating in Afghanistan. Furthermore, these attacks and violence in Afghanistan are affecting Pak-Afghan relations adversely.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani earlier reiterated his call on Pakistan to adopt the “same definition” for terrorism for attacks in Afghanistan as it does for attacks across the Durand Line.

It is evident that Pakistan will have to adopt according to the fluid security environment of the region. It demands combination of hard and soft power. Border security measures and diplomacy will have to be deployed in tandem. This border must be mined and fenced as well despite the opposition of Afghan government and the US. Pakistan's security must be paramount for the national security managers. But highlighting the ground realities on Pak-Afghan complex security scenario is more important task for Islamabad. In this regard, the appointment of Gen (r) Nasir Junjua as National Security Adviser (NSA) by PM Sharif is a step in the right direction. Being involved in sensitive Baluchistan province -a part of Pakistan worst affected by Indian backed insurgencies -he will be in a position to present Pakistan's case on international forums more appropriate manner.

PAF base attackers came from Afghanistan, says DG ISPR

The Attack was Planned in Afghainstan: DG ISPR

(ARY News) Pakistan Military’s spokesman Asim Salim Bajwa has said that the attack on Pakistan Air Force base camp in Peshawar was carried out by a splinter group of banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the foul play was planned in Afghanistan.

“The attackers came from Afghanistan and the whole foul play was planned in the neighbouring country. This attack was being executed through direct coordination from Afghanistan as well,” he informed, while addressing a press conference this evening.

“When you’re in a state of war, such attacks may occur. But the way such terror strikes are responded and retaliated should also be observed,” said Mr. Bajwa.

He said terrorists attacked people who were vulnerable and offering prayers at a mosque.

He also said that the forces would continue their operation until complete elimination of terrorism from Pakistan’s soil.

The military’s spokesperson revealed that 29 people had embraced martyrdom during the attack. He told that terrorists were restricted far behind from a sensitive area and they had planned to target a large number of civilians, but forces foiled their plan.

Giving the breakdown of casualties, of the total 29,  he said 23 of the dead are from Pakistan Air Force, three from the army — 16 of them were offering prayers in the mosque, while seven others including two civilians were in a nearby barrack performing ablution.

He said the number of injured was also 29. “It was a civilian and an open area that allowed terrorists to enter PAF facility.”

How the attack was carried out?

The DG ISPR said terrorists sneaked into the PAF facility from the main gate and split into two groups.

They got immediate response from Air Force guards. The guards responded effectively and in a gallant manner.

One group proceeded towards the administrative area while another moved towards the technical area. Within 10 minutes, the Quick Reaction Force reached the spot and engaged the militants.

He said the attackers were confined within 50 meters and the fight ensued within the same radius. The Fajr prayer had just commenced when the attackers barged into the base camp.

The militants martyred 16 worshippers at the mosque using heavy guns and hand grenades. At least eight attackers had attacked the mosque, he added.

Similarly, other group of terrorists had forced their way into the vehicle parking area and hid themselves under washing pit. Guards of Defence Services Group also joined our fighting forces shortly after the attack, he said.

Later SSG commandos and other armed forces personnel arrived at the spot to respond to the terrorists, he said.

“Alhamdulillah, the role of coordination among forces was vital and successful in responding to the militants’ attack,” said the DG ISPR.

He, however, said it is quite possible that the driver who operated the vehicle carrying terrorists could have left.

He didn’t confirm media reports keeping the number of attackers at 16. He said “Whichever terrorist entered the PAF base camp has been killed.”

TTP group behind attack

The military’s spokesperson said it was a splinter group of TTP which launched an attack on PAF base camp.

He said he would share further information as it transpires.

He thanked the media for keeping nation ‘objectively informed’.

Pakistan has 2.5 million refugees and several such of them cross into the country. Not all of them arrive here for work or vocation. They mingle among the general public here, explained the DG ISPR.

“We have successfully tackled terrorism and we have seen results of Zarb-e-Azb,” he said.

He maintained that the nation was united, focused on eliminating terrorism from the country. “I dont see people becoming frightened from this incident. Our armed forces will continue defending our soil and crush such attackers.”

Terrorist Attack on PAF Camp Badaber, Peshawar

Heavily-armed militants attacked the Pakistan Air Force base Badaber in Peshawar this morning, killing 29 people, says PAF spokesperson. These included 16 worshippers at a mosque located inside the base camp while three PAF technicians and an army captain were also killed battling with militants. Army soldiers quickly surrounded the attackers, confining them to a small area and killing at least 13 of them, said Pakistan’s military spokesman. ARY News reported in the evening that at least one attacker had been caught alive.

Terrorist attack on PAF camp Badaber, Peshawar once again necessitates the detailed revision of security plans for various airbases across the country. This is not the firs time PAF has been attacked by the terrorists. Earlier Mehran Base Karachi and Minhas Base Kamra have been attacked by terrorists and PAF has suffered major loses of its assets. P3-C Orion and Erieye AEW were destroyed in these attacks.

In today's attack though no such lose has been suffered by PAF, it will be prudent to ask why these terrorists were not checked by any law enforcement agency while they were on there way to Badaber camp?

Camp guards and QRF displayed professionalism while thwarting the attack and eliminated all the terrorists before letting them harm any of PAF's asset present on the base but still the loss of lives was on the higher side making it one of the most devastating attack after 14 December 2014 when TTP attacked Army Public School (APS) Peshawar in which more than 140 people were killed majority of them were students.

Analysis:

It must be noticed that this attack was mounted on PAF base Peshawar, but PAF camp. This shows that terrorists are desperate to make a big news. Since 1960's Badaber has remain a listening station used by CIA against Soviets. Camp mostly houses the residential quarters of PAF officials. So it will be prudent to assume that these terrorists were actually wanted to take hostage some of the PAF residents in the camp. Terrorists might wanted to use the hostages as bargain for the release of some arrested terrorists from custody of LEAs.

Suicide vest maker Tahir Farooqi arrested in Lahore

According to media reports, Punjab police, with the help of intelligence agencies, in a joint operation, arrested an important commander and suicide vest making expert of Lashkar-e-Janghavi today in R.A. Bazar area of Lahore Cantt. It is believed that Farooqi is involved in March 2010 suicide bombing in which 39 lives were lost while another 95 people were wounded.  

4 years after this attack, RA Bazar became the target of yet another suicide bombing claiming 13 lives and leaving 30 injured.

Law enforcement agencies also recovered a heavy cache of arms his custody. He belongs to banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and is reported to be head of its armed wing. After his arrest, Tahir Farooqi was shifted to an undisclosed location for further interrogation. Arrest of Tahir Farooqi is a significant development in war against terrorism and more arrests are expected soon in the light of the investigation.

10 Years of War on Terror & Pakistan

Shahzad Masood Roomi

Afghanistan proved strategic black hole for British and Soviet empires in 19^th and 20^th centuries and it looks like that after the destruction of two former superpowers, the US is going to vanish in this black hole in 21^st century. But this time around the war has very distinctive and unique dynamics than any other previous attempts to capture this land lock country.

Pakistan, along with many other Muslim World countries is faced with sub-conventional security threats. The covert war is not hypothetical anymore. The objective of this imposed war is to make Pakistan a dysfunctional state first, denuclearize it in the second phase and then move towards the final balkanization and dismemberment. The threat Pakistan faces today is existential! Pakistan faces a genuine, real and close threat to its very survival in a very hostile regional environment. 





Salala Attack: NATO's Bloody Attack On Pakistan

Shahzad Masood Roomi

The Motive:

In the early morning of Saturday 26 November two NATO Apache helicopters, an AC-130 gunship, and a number of fighter jets perpetrated a sustained and deadly attack on two Pakistani army border posts on the Afghan-Pakistan border. Located high on the Salala mountain ridge, the two army posts were brutally attacked for approximately two hours. In what was evidently a naked act of aggression, the US-led forces bombarded the border posts for forty-five minutes, left for twenty minutes, and subsequently returned – attacking for a further hour. Twenty-four Pakistani soldiers including two officers were murdered in the assault.