Nucleus of Indian Foreign Policy: Isolating Pakistan & Beyond!

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Indian Prime Minister’s visit to the US was yet another vivid display of Indian foreign policy which is being driven by the Hindutva-inspired ultra-nationalism and hegemonic mindset where Pakistan is being considered an ultimate challenge in Indian ambitions of becoming a regional power hence needs to be dealt with.

While addressing to joint session of the US congress on 8^th of June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it crystal that the idea of isolating Pakistan, under the pretext of harboring terrorism, is the nucleus of Indian foreign policy but that is not the only objective India is eying as far as “fixing” Pakistan is concerned. India wants world against and at war with Pakistan. The text of Modi’s speech leaves very little to imagine other than that, this has become ‘the strategic’ goal of India. 

Chabahar Port- A joint Iran- India Initiative to Outsmart Gwadar

By Tariq Niaz

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Iran in late May and signed a series of twelve memorandums of understanding (MOU) which centered upon the Iranian Port of Chabahar. In addition to bilateral MOUs, PM Modi also signed a trilateral transit agreement with Iran and Afghanistan which allows Indian goods to reach Afghanistan through Iran. The expanding Indian economic cooperation with Iran reflect on its changing foreign policy initiatives in the fast evolving geopolitics of the region and its response to much hyped China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and development of Gwadar Port in Baluchistan. 

India's Maritime Strategy: Fishing in Troubled Waters

 

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

India has finally decided to fish in troubled waters of South China Sea in order to showcase her maritime power projection capabilities. According to media reports, the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet has sailed out, on 18th May, on an "operational deployment" to the South China and North West Pacific. This operational deployment is significant development in the contentious geography of South China Sea which has become hotbed of strategic maritime competition between China and the US and her allies. 

ISIS Eying Europe to Acquire Nuclear Material

 

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Pakistan is often sighted by many western analysts as potential source of supply of nuclear material for international nuclear terrorism. India has used these fear for her own geopolitical reasons. For instance, in May 2015, India "warns" the world that ISIS could obtain nuclear weapon from Pakistan.

Defence Minister Rao Inderjit Singh, while speaking on the sidelines of the Shangri-La regional security conference in Singapore, claimed "With the rise of Isis in West Asia, one is afraid to an extent that perhaps they might get access to a nuclear arsenal from states like Pakistan." 

To corroborate his claim he just had a statement issued by ISIS last year just days before Rao's speech in Singapore. Despite the lack of any proof, the statement of Indian minister got attention of wider western populace. But today, UK based news service, The Guardian, has exposed chilling details about ISIS's original plan to acquire nuclear material (for possible purpose of making a dirty bomb) and according to the news, ISIS is actually eying Germany for acquisition of nuclear material.  

According to the Guardian, Salah Abdeslam, a prime suspect in the Paris attacks, possessed documents about a nuclear research centre in Germany. The news outlet cited German newspaper reports as source of this disclosure.

The Juelich centre near the Belgium-Germany border is used for the storage of atomic waste. Thoguh German media is trying to downplaying the incident by saying "that there was no indication of any danger and that Juelich was in contact with security authorities and nuclear supervisors." But question remains, how an ISIS fighter was able to get its hands on such information.

As per Guardian's report, German media, however, confirmed that Abdeslam had photos of the Juelich chairman, Wolfgang Marquardt, in his apartment in the Molenbeek area of Brussels. This is serious development. Kidnapping of such officials at any nuclear facility could lead to far serious security dilemma. This revelations must also put the entire debate on nuclear security into a completely new perspective based on objectivity and transparency rather than geopolitical maneuvering by any nation state against anyone. 

  

India Conducts Second and Third Secret Tests Of K-4 SLBM

BY News Desk (DefenseNews.in): India tested it's most ambitious weapon -- the K-4 submarine-launched long range ballistic missile -- twice last month. Top sources tell Livefist that the two tests, both conducted at less than ceiling range of 3,500 km were conducted at an undisclosed location in the south Bay of Bengal.

Indian Army to setup a new Military Base in Ladakh

 

(DefenseNews.in) The state government has “legally handed over five lakh kanals of land to the army for setting up a new military base, firing ranges and for other defence purposes in Ladakh”, a Chandigarh-based newspaper reported. The army shall be setting up artillery firing range over 40,000 kanals at Mandal Thang in Leh district. “We have given the approval to authorise 5 lakh kanals to the army in Ladakh for defence purposes, including establishing bases and firing ranges,” the report quoted the officials as saying, without mentioning his name. As per the report, the deputy secretary, Revenue, Ghulam Rasool, said the process had been initiated to legally authorise to the army the land that was under the force’s unlawful possession.

More RAW Agents Apprehended

BY News Desk

Based on the information of captured RAW officer Kulbhushan Yadev, Intelligence agencies have apprehended four more operatives of the Indian covert agency RAW . Latest arrests were made from Lahore and Karachi after Yadev started singing like a bird during the investigations.

One of these four operatives hailing from Kalat, Balochistan was identified as Deepak Kumar Prakash, according sources, whose linkage to RAW was established through an ‘undercover officer’ of the Indian high commission. He visited India in 2014, where he was given 50,000 rupees and extension in visa. One of Deepak’s brothers also lives in India, who was also given 4-5 lacs.

Another member of Kulbhushan Yadav’s spy network named Nadeem alias Uncle was rounded from Karachi, said sources. He was arrested in a joint operation together with intelligence personnel.

Muhammad Shafiq, another foreign agent, was also nabbed from Karachi.

While two more Indian nationals working as engineers in a sugar mill belonging to sharif family which is quiet a serious matter and is being debated in national media as well.


Khara Sach with Mubashir Lucman – 28th March 2016 by kashifkhemtio23

RAW's Baluchistan Project

By Shahzad Masood Rooomi

Pakistani intelligence operatives, on Thursday, arrested Kal Boshan Yadav a serving Indian Navy commander level officer from Baluchistan near Pak-Afghan border. He was given a fake identity of Hussain Mubarik Patel in Pakistan by Indian foreign intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

FIR Registered Against the Attackers and Abettors of Pathankot Attack; What About Proofs?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

The latest media reports suggest that Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) of Punjab Police, Pakistan has registered a case against the alleged attackers and their abettors of the Pathankot airbase located in Indian Punjab.

According to reports, CTD lodged FIR # 06/2016 in a police station Gujranwala under the sections 302, 324 and 109 of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), and sections 7 and 21-I of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA).

Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah addressing the media said, “The information provided by India was used to file the case and if need be, Pakistan will ask India for more information.”

Indian Rafale Deal and Pakistan's Options

By Shahzad Masood Roomi


India and France on Monday inked an inter-governmental MoU on the sale of 36 French fighter jets. According to a statement of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, financial aspects and details of the deal are yet to be worked out. It means technically, both parties have finalized the details of the deal.

Why China Is Not Panicking Over Declining Growth Rate?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Why China is not in panic over a declining growth rate when India has surpassed it this year as fastest developing economy with more growth rate? Media debate, particularly in India, suggests that India is finally there where it is going to overtake China as fastest growing economy. But, what does this news tells us in real terms about the balance of two economies?

First of all, this is a misconception often caused by considering GDP growth with actual size of GDP. Chinese GDP size is 3 times the Indian GDP size. China now accounts for more than 15% of the global economic output, nearly triple what it was a decade ago. It will take India at least 3 decades before catching up to Chinese GDP size and that too if Chinese economy suffers a severe setback which is not going to happen not in foreseeable future and there are multiple reasons for that.

Secondly, China enjoys a massive trade surplus. It export goods worth much more than what it imports. So, naturally there is no reason to panic. This is the most simplistic answer.

But the wide-spread economic overtures made by China, away from home, are the real reason why the Beijing is calm. The most important of these came fore recently, when IMF gave acceptance to Chinese currency as global foreign reserve currency along with US Dollar, EU Euro, UK Pound and Japanese Yen. This development is going to play a critical role in future dynamics of world economics as now it is believed that China will bring more liberalization and transparency in its economic affairs which intrun will further help China to pitch herself as credible economy. 

As per BBC, the IMF chief said the Yuan has met all existing criteria for becoming a global foreign reserve currency. The decision will take affect till October 2016. According to IMF chief, this is "an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system." Inclusion of Yuan in IMF's SDR basket will pave the way for Chinese economic growth abroad as well.

We have already talked about the huge news of IMF accepting Yuan as global foreign reserve currency. This is going to change the global economic order. Countries, who previously were dependent on US or Western foreign reserve currency will now have the an Asian alternative for maintaining their foreign exchange reserves.

When the US and almost all the noticeable powers of Europe have indulged themselves in never-ending wars in Middle East, China is quietly expanding her geo-economic outreach. China has opened a new era of China-Africa cooperation and common development during the recent visit of President Xi to South Africa where he and heads of state and government and representatives from about 50 African nations, adopted a declaration and an action plan for cooperation in the next three years. To implement this cooperation, China and African nations would be focusing on implementing 10 major cooperation plans covering the areas of industrialization, agricultural modernization, infrastructure, financial services, green development, trade and investment facilitation, poverty reduction, public health, people to people exchanges, and peace and security. Despite the fact that Indian economy has grown more (7.4%) than that of China's (7.0%) but it is still far behind than the Indian government's target of 8.5%. Indian economy will not grow with that rate even in 2017-18.

It is obvious from this analysis that China is not in any kind of pressure as far as her economic competition with India is concerned. Though China will have to open up its economy more in order to get it integrated with rest of the world, there certainly are signs that China is about to transform its geoeconomic strength into far reaching geopolitical strength which in return would play key role in expansion of Chinese economic outreach to other parts of the world opening new venues for Chinese investments. 

India to Deploy Remote Controlled Guns on LoC

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Indian Army is going to deploy remote controlled guns on LoC. Though the weapons are still far from field deployment but these are being developed and tested.

This was revealed by General officer Commanding (GoC) of the 16 Corps of the Indian Army Lt Gen RR Nimbhorkar during a function held in Akhnoor.

“At the moment, they (new and modern weapons) are in the nascent stage... there are various up gradation and whether you call them remotely controlled (guns) or you can say up gradation of various technologies, they are in the nascent stage. But there are reports suggesting that these guns will make their debut in Indian Army on LoC by the year end.

“We are trying them and if they are successful we will deploy them.”

He also hinted that these remote controlled guns will be deployed under a well worked-out plan by Indian Army.

The locally-developed integrated machineguns employ infrared sensors radiating in a grid arrangement to produce IR beams to detect any movement. The system will able to detect any movement up to a distance of 80 metres ahead of the border fence – the distance between the fence and the LoC can vary from 50 metres to over 2km depending on the terrain.

“On the LoC, we have to be always evolving. There is no one methodology and equipment we put on the LoC. (Whenever) We find it needs to be changed, (we change it). We do innovation and that is the ongoing process,” Lt Gen Nimbhorkar said.

“So, in this process, there are things which we have thought off which we are practicing and when they are fully functional then we will deploy them” he added.

The IR sensors are linked to automatic guns mounted on rotors complemented with night-vision cameras providing live video stream to workstations, located in bunkers, running mapping software and manned by field commanders.

A buzzer is sounded if the grid is broken, rotating the weapon in the direction of the intrusion site. Video aid enables the commander to identify the intrusion and take action.

“If the target is visually identified as hostile, the observer simply presses a button to take it out,” said Brigadier PC Vyas who is implementing the remote-controlled weapons project.

But these plans of Indian Army to install remote-controlled weapons on LoC would require considerable time. Not only these technologies are in their nascent stages, Indian Army also lack proper firing range to test them and this was also hinted by Lt Gen Nimbhorkar as a problem Indian army is facing right now.

ANALYSIS:

Development, testing and deployment of any new weapon system is slow process and takes many years and firm dedication and financial support to induct hence require an early response as well. This is where such plans by India Army, though long way from execution, do demand some serious thinking by Pakistan as far as impact of such systems on the operational plans of Pakistan Army is concerned.

There can be number of considerations which pushed Indian Army to devise such an ambitious plan. Technological evolution in conventional weaponry viz-a-viz Pakistan has always remain at the center stage of Indian military’s strategic thinking.

But employment of such system must not be taken as a mere attempt by India to display her technological prowess. This plan, once implemented, would allow Indian Army to deploy additional firepower on LoC without any fear of retaliatory fire by Pakistan Army on these positions. Through such systems, Indian Army would able to field additional firepower as well.  

Iran's Desire to Join CPEC, A Big Dent in Indian Foreign Policy

“Pakistan has invited Iran to become part of the CPEC and help strengthen border markets, upgrade railways, build warehouses and open/upgrade border crossing points,” sources of the Ministry of Commerce revealed to Pakistani media.

It is notice worthy that two countries are already in process to chart out a long term strategic plan to enhance bilateral trade. Pak-Iran Joint Working Group and Technical Committee on Trade is contemplating this plan. The prospects for progress on this plan has been further increased as Iran has entered a landmark deal with world powers on her nuclear program which in turn has paved the way of lifting the sanctions against Iran.

Last meeting of Pak-Iran Joint Working group was held in August where they agreed on the need of implementing the bilateral Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), including promotion of transparency and establishment of a mechanism that issues prior notification.

Pakistan has stressed the need of establishing regular freight train service between Zahedan (Iran) and Quetta (Pakistan). Some progress has been made in this regard as well during the latest meeting but the frequency of operations of this freight train will have to be increased and Iranian inclusion in CPEC would contribute chiefly in achieving that. This will also make these freight operations more economical by introducing concessionary fares as has been proposed by Pakistan already.

“The Iranian delegation will convey all proposals and suggestions to the authorities concerned in their country and inform about the decisions later,” said the official in the Ministry of Commerce.

According to the official, Iran has also shown interest in linking itself with the CPEC to expand its border markets with regional countries.

Implications for Indian Foreign Policy in Iran:

Now this is a big dent to Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan in the region. Iran is approaching China for assistance and cooperation along with seeking some Chinese investment in Iranian infrastructure. Earlier, on 2 Sep. it was reported that Iran has agreed to becoming part of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In fact, under the present geopolitical milieu, both Iran and China can work together. China can give investment and economic boost to Iran while Iran can provide access to Turkey and Europe by acting as land bridge. In this scheme, Pakistan will serve as pivot. It is high time for New Delhi to revise its strategy against Pakistan otherwise there are all the indications that it will be India who will remain isolated in Chinese driven Asian integration via infrastructure development!

Indian Spy Arrested From Lahore

Intelligence agencies have arrested an Indian spy from Lahore on Tuesday.

According to media reports, Ilyas alias Pervaiz was arrested from the provincial capital. The reports further added that the man belonged to India’s primary intelligence agency - Research and Analysis Wing – and was an officer in Punjab police's VVIP service unit.

The accused confessed before police that he had visited India seven times. He had got leave from police department on pretext of medical compulsion. Maps of many sensitive installations have been also recovered from the accused.

Officials have taken the Ilyas into custody and more investigation into the incident is underway. Pakistan has said repeatedly that India is involved in carrying out anti-state against it. Indian involvement in Pakistan is no secret now. Two months back, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi gave a victory speech in Bangladesh and confessed that Indian Army was involved in the entire East Pakistan episode of 1971. Previously, India always denied any role in secession of East Pakistan.

Latest development clear indicates that RAW's involvement in Pakistan has reached to a whole new level and now it is penetrating into civilian law enforcement agencies like Police.   

ANALYSIS: Indradanush IV - Joint IAF- RAF Exercise

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

The British Royal Air Force's Eurofighter Typhoon and Indian Air Force's Sukhoi Su-30MKI ‘Flankers’ came face to face during a successful major exercise, Indradanush, in UK. This was the 4th round of the exercise which first held in  India in October 2006. Last visit of IAF's Su-30MKIs was in 2007 when 6 of the IAF Su-30MKIs along with one IL-78 tanker were hosted by 25 Squadron of RAF based in Leeming.

In the latest edition of the exercise, which concluded on July 30th, IAF dispatched 4 MKIs from 2 Sqn ("Winged Arrows") based at Tezpur near India’s frontier with China. RAF Typhoon squadrons from RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire represented RAF in the exercise.

Intensive flying operations from both IAF and RAF against each other was major highlight of the exercise.  According to Aviation Week, 10 IAF crews including 15 pilots and 5 weapon systems operators flew twice daily missions, often flying all four Su-30s on air-to-air training missions flying beyond visual range (BVR) and within visual range (WVR) engagements with the Typhoon.

The Flanker pilots were also deployed the thrust-vectoring control (TVC) “super-maneuverability” capability. For RAF pilots, this was something new and exciting. “This is fantastic. It’s the first time I’ve flown against a Flanker this morning and it’s fascinating to see another air force do its thing in a different aeroplane. Flying against an aircraft which is equally comparable to the Typhoon isn’t something we get to fight against on a regular basis in the UK.", Typhoon pilot Flight Lieutenant Mike Highmoor spoke shortly after his first encounter with the TVC equipped Su-30. 

Indian pilots used the yaw capability of the TVC to remain inside the tight turn radius of the Typhoon in order to keep the Typhoon in missile launch parameters, as reported by Aviation Week. It was also reported that RAF pilots also flew in rear cockpit seats of MKIs to get maximum experience of its flight profile.

According to RAF's Wg. Cmdr. Chris Moon, CO 3 (Fighter) Sqn, which led the exercise, said that the exercise was advanced in “crawl, walk, run approach” meaning the pilots from both the air forces were put in complex scenarios in a gradual manner. MKIs took on the Typhoons in 1vs1, 2vs1 and increasingly complex engagements.  During the last phase of exercise,  mission saw all four Flankers working with six Typhoons to escort and support two C-130J Hercules on a para-dropping mission. They were opposed by 8-10 red-air Typhoons.

The exercise also saw the use of an Indian C-17 and an Il-78 tanker aircraft. 

ANALYSIS:

The ultimate aim of every exercise is to mitigate the potential threats and Indradanush is no exception in that regard. RAF's Typhoon has physical characteristics similar to Chinese J-10 (Canards, Delta Wings) while IAF's SU-30MKI is undoubtedly the most advanced version of Russian Flanker fighters sans SU-35. RAF pilots witnessed the employment of Russian TVC technology in both complex BVR and WVR scenarios.

Keeping in mind the prevailing geopolitical tensions between China-India and Russia-NATO, this particular exercise offered huge learning curve for the fighter pilots of both the air forces to understand and study their opponents. The experience gained in this exercise is going to play a critical role for both the forces in mitigating very peculiar types of threats. i.e. J-10 for IAF, Russian Flanker for RAF.
 

Unidentified Drone Found Near Working Boundary

Unidentified spy drone crashed near working boundary which has been taken in custody by Pakistani security authorities. The picture reveals that there is no marking on the drone but the possibility of it being an Indian drone cannot be ruled out. Investigations are undergoing.

It must be remain clear that working boundary has remained a restive part of Pak-India border during the last year or so.

Pakistani government has maintained that India escalated the tension on this part of border to divert attention of Pakistani security forces who are busy in Operation Zarb e Azb in North Waziristan Agency in FATA.

ISI - NDS Deal & Indian Worry!

By Shahzad Masood Roomi


“MoU signed by ISI and NDS includes intelligence sharing, complementary and coordinated intel operations on respective sides.”

This is what ISPR's official statement reads on twitter.com regarding recently signed deal between Pakistan's ISI and Afghan NDS to jointly fight against terrorism through coordination and intel sharing. There is NO mention of any country in this statement. 

Today. Indian National Security Adviser (NSA), Ajit Doval had following to say about this deal.

"What Pakistan wanted was to take assurance and pressurize Afghanistan that they will not allow their territory, to be used for any security related work by India. That is the crux of it. This is based on a faulty assumption that India probably uses Afghan soil or Afghan nationals, for its security purposes," 

ANALYSIS:

In the complex security scenario, such deals among the most adversely affected nations is nothing surprising even though both have long history of mistrust on security related issues, but the way Indian NSA has reacted raises many questions on the true nature of Indian involvement in Afghanistan.

If India is not involved in supporting any kind of terrorism in Pakistan using Afghan soil, then why to object a deal which is purely against the terrorists like Taliban, Al-Qaeda etc. the groups who are common enemies of both Pakistan and Afghanistan. But as now the Indian apprehension about a security related agreement has been confirmed, it is only natural to assume that India actually "do" have role in creating security related troubles in Pakistan's Western provinces.

The statement of Indian defense minister, in which he has hinted at using terrorists to fight terrorism also endorse this assertion!

Apart from that, an essential element of deal between ISI and NDS is the accord for provision of joint probe of the terrorism suspects and this explains why Indian security establishment is so worried about this deal. This will eliminate the fog of uncertainty and mistrust between NDS and ISI which hitherto has helped the hostile entities to conceal their covert ops in the region which might be the part of their larger strategic plans.

A heated debate is already taking place within the Indian strategic community on the possible implications of this deal for the strategic interests of India in Afghanistan. And the most important question being asked after this deal between Pakistani and Afghan intelligence agencies is, Has India lost Afghanistan to Pakistan?      

Indian Guided Missile Destroyers and Balance of Maritime Power in Arabian Sea

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

In every modern naval fleet, destroyers play critical role due to their versatility, agility, fire power and longer reach. Introduced at the beginnings of 20^th century as Torpedo Boat Destroyers" (TBD) were "large, swift, and powerfully armed torpedo boats designed to destroy other torpedo boats. After Russio-Japanese War, destroyers began to evolve as true long range mutli-mission ships. 

Two World Wars during the last century played a critical role in evolution of destroyers. Aerial threat and advanced German U-boats, emerged as a nightmare for the Allied navies. This forced naval engineers and ship designers to come with the new designs of destroyers giving it capability against these two new threats. They were fitted with new anti-aircraft guns, radar, and forward-launched ASW weapons, in addition to their existing light guns, depth charges, and torpedoes. 

After the World War II, the advent of guided missile was a major advancement in maritime warfare allowing the destroyers to expand their combatant roles and taking over the missions previously fulfilled by much larger ships i.e. battleships and cruisers. This expansion of operational capability of destroyers, for the first time, allowed them to perform independent operations as well. 

Today, only few nations have the capability to design, build and commission guided missile destroyers. The operational orbit of destroyer today, includes land attacks and strike missions (through cruise missiles), fleet defense against aerial threats (through on board long range radars and SAM system), anti-submarine (through torpedo) and anti-ship operations (through anti-ship missiles). Earlier generation of naval destroyers were not multi-mission capable. They were either fleet air defense ship or ballistic missile ship. County Class of UK and Kashin Class of USSR, introduced in 1958-60, were basically air defense destroyer designs.

As the miniaturization of nuclear war-heads has turned cruise missiles into nuclear cruise missiles, guided missile destroyers have emerged as supplementary platform for any nation’s nuclear triad strengthening its 2^nd strike capability.

Along with the evolution of missiles, radars and onboard sensors of a destroyer, the missile launchers have evolved as well. From early single and twin arm launchers (MK 13 & MK 11) to modern Vertical Launch System (MK 41 VLS), this evolution of launchers has enabled the modern ships to carry a lot more guided missiles (both SAM and SSM) in the form of a missile magazine.

Despite all their multi mission nature, fact remains that destroyers due to their larger size can be detected by enemy submarines and Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). In order to overcome this intrinsic shortcoming of destroyers, stealth factor was introduced in the design philosophy of the destroyers.

Indian Navy's Modern Guided Missile Destroyers:

Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).

As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014. The remaining two - Kochi and Chennai - are expected to join service by early 2016. Right now, Kolkata class destroyers are the biggest destroyer ships designed and built in India.

Just like Delhi class, Kolkata class also has a follow on design project known as ‘Project 15-B’ or Vishakhapatnam Class. MDL launched INS Vishakhapatnam, the first of four 7,300 tons Project 15B guided missile destroyers being built for the Indian Navy (IN), in Mumbai on 20^th April. IN officials said it would be commissioned in July 2018 and delivery of the three follow-on platforms at two year intervals will be completed by 2024 at an overall cost of INR 293.40 billion (USD4.89 billion).

Key differences of Project 15A and Project 15B include the relocation of its sonar to the bow from the hull; the design of its mast, which houses its main radar, has also been revised to further reduce its radar cross section.

Other changes include reshaping of the hull to accentuate its stealth features and the addition of a rail-less helicopter traversing system.

• According to IN, INS Vishakhapatnam would be fitted with the IAI-Elta-designed EL/M-2248 Multi-Function Surveillance Threat Alert Radar (MF-STAR) to provide guidance to 32 Barak-8/NG air-defense missiles.

• The destroyer will also be fitted with IAI-Elta EL/M-2238 S-band (2 to 4 GHz) 3-D volume air surveillance radar (STAR) radar and a Thales LW-08 D-band air search radar.

• INS Vishakhapatnam 's principal weapon will be 16 BrahMos anti-ship/ land attack cruise missiles, co-developed by the DRDO and Russia.

• The ship's anti-submarine warfare capability includes twin-tube launchers and RBU-6000 SMERCH-2 rocket launchers

• A license-built 76 mm Oto Melara Super Rapid Gun, four Russian AK-630 close-in weapon systems and a 127 mm main gun, which is still under negotiation.
  
  
• It can also carry two multiple-role helicopters (e.g., Sea King or HAL Dhruv helicopters).
  
  
• Total Atmosphere Control (TAC) System; this system will enable the crew to operate the ship in regions of  NBC fall out.

According to Asian Defense military blog, "In its quest to become a powerful three-dimensional blue-water force and maintain a fleet of around 140 "surface and sub-surface combatants", the Navy already has 30 warships and six submarines on order in various Indian shipyards."

Apart from this buildup of guided missile destroyers, Indian Navy is pursuing an ambitious $16 billion USD plan to modernize its surface and sub-surface fleets. Project-17 is yet another ambitious project to build 6,000 tons stealth frigates.

According to Chietigj Bajpaee, an Indian defense analyst, Indian has ambitious plans for the development of a 160-plus ship navy, comprising three aircraft carrier battle groups by 2022. More than 40 warships and submarines are on order or under construction at the country's three major shipyards. These include stealth destroyers, anti-submarine corvettes and stealth frigates. These vessels will supplement and in some cases replace the country's older destroyers. 

According to some estimates, Currently, Indian Navy is the world’s fifth largest maritime force but it would take 3rd position, after China and US, within the next 15 years when Indian Navy would eventually complete its modernization.

Indian security establishment and strategic community consider the rise of India’s trade through sea as the primary driving force behind this ambitious modernization as Bajpaee put it in his interview.

But for a more objective analysis of this ambitious Indian naval modernization, the prevailing bitter truths of regional geopolitics like traditional rivalries between the countries like China-Japan maritime tension, India-Pakistan, India-China energy competition and China-US standoff over Taiwan, cannot be overlooked. These geopolitical realities have reshaped the Asian security architecture for the 21^st century, where arms race, increased defense spending and a desire for ubiquitous military presence in the Indian Ocean are dominant trends.

The strategic maritime competition between China and the US in the South China Sea is the biggest driver behind the Indian naval ambitions. As an indirect consequence of this strategic competition and Indian counter-strategy to it, the maritime balance of power in Arabian Sea between Pakistani and Indian naval forces is rapidly tipping in favor of India; thus creating serious maritime security concerns for regional stability and Pakistan’s seawards defenses.    

Implication of Indian Naval Expansion for the Maritime Power of Balance in Arabian Sea:

By looking at the design philosophy of Indian naval fleet, it becomes evident that Indian Navy is preparing for complete NBC/ WMDs scenarios. The pursuance of nuclear triad remains the ultimate long term objective in Indian strategic thinking to deter Chinese military modernization and expanding influence in the Indian Ocean.

In this strategic milieu, the inclusion of stealth guided missile destroyers would further this growing maritime disparity between Pakistan and India. A scenario involving multiple Indian navy ships, armed with dozens of nuclear armed missiles, would be no less than a nightmare for small Pakistan Navy.  

Even we take nuclear WMDs out of the picture, the conventional arsenal of IN poses serious challenge to Pakistani naval installations and other industrial targets. 

Indian Threat & State of Pakistan Navy:

The establishment of NSFC, back in May 2012, was perceived as Pakistan's announcement of existence of country's maritime strategic deterrence in form of a nuclear submarine project. Back in 2012, ISPR issued its press release which read, "The force, which is the custodian of the nation's 2nd strike capability, will strengthen Pakistan's policy of credible minimum deterrence and ensure regional stability.” This statement cemented the impression further that Pakistan having nuclear submarine program. It has been three years since the NSFC was established but still Pakistan's surface fleet remains precariously exposed to Indian Navy's overwhelming technical and numerical superiority in Arabian Sea. Nation is still looking towards the strategic decision makers and security managers to put Pakistan's 2nd strike capability in operational state in order to give PN much needed deterrence capability.   

PN currently does not operate any single ship armed with long range land attack cruise missile to give it a true guided missile capability. Although, the Ex-Type 21 ships (Tariq Class) acquired from the UK in 1993-94 are classified as destroyers in PN but fact remains that these ships were built as frigates originally. These PN Ships were rearmed with American and Chinese anti-ship missiles (Harpoon and C-802). But Harpoons do not give any advantage to Pakistan Navy as Indian Navy has also acquired Harpoon Block II missiles (Range 130 Km) for its latest P-8I MPA aircraft.

But Pakistan's maritime security worries in context of Indian naval modernization do not end there; PN's sub-surface fleet, which can provide a considerable deterrence and sea-denial capabilities against enemy's overwhelmingly larger surface fleet is also precariously out numbered.

PN currently has only 5 conventional submarines (3 Agosta 90-B and 2 Agosta-70) and 2 Agosta-70s have reached their retirement age. Since 2010, PN has been looking for various options to strengthen its submarine fleet but so far no confirmed deal has been signed. Latest news suggest that PN may eventually acquire Chinese made conventional diesel submarines. Originally, PN requires 12 submarines. This requirement was laid out in Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP) 2015. It is high time for PN to expedite the acquisition process. Apart from getting Chinese submarines, Pakistan is also looking for surplus Western subs. In this pursuit, Turkey can provide Pakistan with German Type-209 submarines which it wanted to modernize but then went for latest Type-214.

Pakistan also needs to increase the strength of its surface fleet. News is that PN is considering to acquire 4 more F-22P type frigates. Pakistan must look at the potential acquisition of Chinese destroyers. Chinese platforms would allow Pakistan to integrate Pakistani cruise missile Babur on them giving Pakistan the deterrence against the maritime threats from India.

Redefining Maritime Minimum Credible Deterrence: 

Pakistan Navy cannot match its Indian counterpart one to one basis neither it is required keeping in minds the size of Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and coastline length. But then there is a third and more relevant factor in this equation of indo-Pak maritime power projection which PN will has to balance. The third factor is growing expeditionary nature of Indian Naval modernization. Evidently, Indian Navy is seeking to build ‘army maneuver through sea’ capability in joint ops doctrine with Indian Army. Minimum credible deterrence threshold for maritime arena, in Arabian Sea, will have to be redefined by PN. The share of Pakistan Navy in annual defense allocation must also be redefined as per this reevaluated minimum credible deterrence parameters in maritime power projection. Acquisition of more F-22P frigates and some Chinese built destroyers would become the eventual consequence of any such reevaluation. PN will have to become a capable brown water navy with limited expeditionary capabilities. 

Seeking Self-Reliance:

Pakistan Navy needs to take a page from Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) success in self-reliance in ship building. Just like PAF’s JF-17 Thunder, PN needs to initiate a joint venture with China or Turkey to design and build indigenous destroyer. Pakistan must become a player in the geopolitical game being played in Indian Ocean rather than being a pawn. Building a strong ship building industry is also vital for Pakistan from pure economic perspective. It can attract foreign customer and earn foreign reserve.    

But this is a mid to long term plan.  For now, the most realistic option for Pakistan would be to concentrate on enhancing two basic maritime capabilities against the Indian Navy's surface fleet at war footings i.e.  Sea denial and Coastal defense.  

Sea Denial:

For rapid sea denial, what Pakistan Navy can do is to concentrate on aerial operations capabilities in open Ocean and raise the number of missile boats in surface fleet. Pakistan Air Force has already expanded the operational orbit of JF-17 with integrating CM-400AKG hyper-sonic anti-ship missiles. Both PAF and PN must expedite the deliveries of these planes to PN. According to media reports, PN is interested in 30 JF-17s to raise 2 squadrons. Air launched version of C-802 anti-ship missile is also being integrated on Thunders, Keeping in mind the size of Mig-29K and Su-30MKI fleet of Indian Navy, Pakistan Navy must revised its requirement for JF-17s to 60-70 to raise minimum 4 squadrons. How these aircraft integrate with existing fleet of Pakistan naval aviation wing would determine their effectiveness during the actual air-sea battle. 

Coastal Defense:

For coastal defense, Pakistan has built fast missile boats, these small boats can prove invaluable defense against growing numbers of Indian guided missile destroyer fleet. These boats are easier to build and maintain with minimum resources and time. Media reports suggest that Pakistan has increased its requirement of Azmat class Fast Attack Craft (FAC) to 8 from current strength of 2. It will help in coastal defense but due to their limited green water capabilities (shorter range, lower displacement) they cannot perform sea denial operations in open sea far from coast line but these ships (each armed with 8 C-802) are inarguably the best option for coastal defense. 

It will be only prudent to remind once again what renowned American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan once said about the Indian Ocean and its importance in the 21st century when global trade has made this Ocean strategically the most important geography on the globe. 

‘Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia, the destiny of the world will be decided on its waters.’