India's Maritime Strategy: Fishing in Troubled Waters

 

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

India has finally decided to fish in troubled waters of South China Sea in order to showcase her maritime power projection capabilities. According to media reports, the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet has sailed out, on 18th May, on an "operational deployment" to the South China and North West Pacific. This operational deployment is significant development in the contentious geography of South China Sea which has become hotbed of strategic maritime competition between China and the US and her allies. 

India Conducts Second and Third Secret Tests Of K-4 SLBM

BY News Desk (DefenseNews.in): India tested it's most ambitious weapon -- the K-4 submarine-launched long range ballistic missile -- twice last month. Top sources tell Livefist that the two tests, both conducted at less than ceiling range of 3,500 km were conducted at an undisclosed location in the south Bay of Bengal.

Pakistan's S-20 Submarine Deal: Is It Enough to Restore Maritime Balance of Power?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

On 23rd July 2015, Pakistan took a big step forward in order to strengthen the  

According to media reports Pakistan will buy 8 Chinese made S-20 conventional attack submarines in a multi-billion dollar deal that will boost Pakistani navy's subsurface capabilities.

Sources claimed that an agreement was reached here during a meeting between Pakistani finance minister Ishaq Dar and Xu Ziqin, president of state-owned China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Company Limited (SCOC) which is the trade arm of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. The reports of submarines deal was in the air since the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan in April and now it looks like that a considerable progress has been made.

Final approval of the deal is subject to a high level review in Beijing and a formal agreement would signed afterwards. Pakistan would make payments in four installments and the delivery of the vessels would commence in coming years.

"Financial arrangements to this effect were also concluded," it added indicating that both the parties have agreed on the most concerning part of the deal as far as Pakistan is concerned.

The statement issued by Finance ministry quoted Mr. Xu thanking Ishaq Dar for his contribution in concluding the arrangements, saying it was reflective of the "deep-rooted" China-Pakistan friendship.

It was reported then that the contract could be worth US$ 4-5 billions making it  the biggest arms export deal for Communist China and Pakistan Navy as well.

Pakistan has been negotiating the purchase of submarines from China since 2011. No details were, however, given about the type of the submarines. But there have been reports that Yuan-class Type-041 diesel-electric submarines were being considered.

S-20:

First unveiled during IDEX 2013, the international defense exhibition held in the United Arab Emirates, S-20 was introduced as not merely for domestic demand but also for export on international market.

Though is is based on Type 041 Yuan class, there are clear differences between these two. S-20 is essentially an export version of Type -041.  S-20’s length is 66 meters against 73-75 meters of Type 041. But this is most probably due to the fact the S-20 comes without AIP module of Type-041 which can easily integrated if a customer requires thanks to modular design of S-20. Pakistani S-20 will come with AIP system installed. Similarly, surface displacement (1,850 tons) and submerged displacement (2,300 tons) are considerably less than Yuan's surface displacement. Maximum speed is also a bit slow at 18 knots against 20 Knots of Yuan while the cruise speed is similar to Yuan at 16 knots, range is 8,000 nautical miles at 16 knots, endurance is 60 days. Crew is one area where S-20 looks better than Yuan as it has a crew of 38 versus 58 for the Yuan. 

Despite these specifications, S-20 promises solid performance as a sub-surface combat naval platform. It is double hulled with maximum submerging depth of 300 meters. It is equipped with variable frequency hydro-phonic detection device and towed sonar. Non details are available regarding weapons on board but understandably its weapon package would include heavy torpedoes and anti-ship missiles from six torpedo tubes and deploy mines and special forces. 

S-20 Deal And Assessment of Pakistan's Maritime Security Challenges:

For Pakistan Navy, the threat matrix is multi-dimensional. Indian Navy is gearing to become a Blue Water Navy. Apart from air craft carriers, IN is inducting medium to heavy guided missile destroyers. Security & Threat Matrix has done a detailed analysis of IN surface fleet here. To give the readers a clear idea, a brief extract is being reproduced here.

"Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).

As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014." 

Keeping in mind these IN projects, (which are not limited to these guided missile destroyers but also include procurement of more Scropene class subs from France) it is only prudent to ask if S-20 is enough to restore maritime balance of power which has dangerously tilted in Indian favor? It might be said that India is pursuing blue water navy dream to counter China as a partner of the US in Washington's Asia-Pacific Pivot strategy and her preparations are not targeted against Pakistani maritime interest. But in reality is bitter revenge of South Asia's geography that Pakistan cannot stay unaffected by the ongoing strategic maritime power projection competition Indian Ocean between China and, US and her allies.

Keeping in mind the sheer size of future Indian surface fleet and weapons and sensor system on board, it is obvious that Pakistan must reconsider the number of S-20. Pakistan currently has only 3 conventional attack submarines (Augosta 90-B) which can pose some threat to IN assets during a conflict. 

Pakistan needs to establish a submarine force of more than 20 ships along minimum 4 medium weight (5000-7000 Tons) guided missile destroyer armed with naval version of Babur cruise missile. Induction of CM-400AK in PAF, is not enough particularly when IN vessels will be armed with medium range Barak-8 SAM, jointly developed with Israel. Induction of this SAM system is another obvious proof that IN is moving towards becoming a Blue Water Navy. 

The seawards threats posed by IN must be mitigated by enhancement of PN in all departments (surface, sub surface and air). Relying on a single platform would certainly jeopardize the entire national defense. The most critical factor is time. The longer national leadership would take to assess these threats harder it will be to deter them. Time to act is NOW!    

Chinese Artificial Islands: Advantages and Vulnerbilities

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

This is the artificial island in South China Sea recently built by China as part of her land reclamation project. This Chinese project has sparked a heated debate in global strategic community. South China Sea is among the most volatile maritime strategic hot spots in Indian Ocean. This particular island is located in disputed territory of South China Sea and this is why there is so much debate going on about this Chinese military project. Recently, A US Navy P-8A flew over the island and captured some very detailed pictures proving that Chinese have put their construction work on the island in the next phase. A bitter exchange of words took place between P8-A crew and Chinese Navy while US Navy plane carried out reconnaissance mission revealing details of Chinese mysterious artificial military island. After the incident, Chinese official declared the US flight as an action threatening peace in South Asia Sea. But latest media reports suggest that this was not the last such events where Chinese disapproved the US spying on her island. Australian Navy is planning a 'freedom of navigation' mission to show its disapproval of Chinese project. Australia is a US ally in Asia-Pacific Pivot strategy announced by President Obama in 2010-11.

Detailed photograph taken by the US Navy P-8A shows construction work on Chinese artificial island.

Latest, reports suggest that China has put weapons on the island. After these reports, there is a broad consensus among global security experts, that tensions over the South China Sea are set to escalate even further. As Chinese have shown their dissatisfaction over US spying its artificial island, the US defense secretary has defended the US spy plane flights over Chinese island. "There should be no mistake in this, the United State will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows", said Ash Carter, US defense secretary.

Chinese military buildup has been among the most visible geopolitical trends in last 15 years. This military buildup is translation of growing Chinese economic strength. Latest reports suggest that IMF has approved Chinese Yuan as a next global reserve currency along with US Dollar, EU Euro and Japanese Yen. This economic and military rise of China is the most vivid proof of global shift of power from the west to east. But problem with such power shift is that they are seldom peaceful and considering the high stakes of both the US and China in South China Sea, many security experts around the world consider that a war between both these powers is inevitable. 

Chinese Navy and Air Force are adopting aggressive policy as Beijing is looking to expand is capability to project power away from mainland China. Recently, Russia and China concluded naval exercises in Mediterranean Sea sending clear signal to NATO about the emergence of multi-polar world order.

There is no doubt that artificial island is a major step forward in Chinese strategy to project maritime power in South China Sea. Some experts have declared the island a non-sinkable Chinese aircraft carrier which is going to pose serious challenge to the US and allied maritime vessels in the region. But is Chinese strategy to build artificial islands in South China Sea going to yield the strategic results as Beijing has envisioned them?

Analysis:   

This Chinese artificial island is not the only project of its kind in the region. Previously, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippine have carried out similar projects in their respective waters, but problem with the Chinese project is that it is located in disputed waters where number of regional countries have claims over these waters. It makes this artificial island base a dangerous proposition to begin with.

Apart from that there is a question of building a naval island and coping with its vulnerabilities due to modern ballistic missile threats.

China is following the US footsteps as far as its island maritime strategy is concerned. During and after the World War II, the US established naval bases and stations on islands across the world. The islands like Midway Atoll and Diego Garcia provide strategic footprint to the US Navy in Pacific and Indian Ocean.  Though these islands are invaluable assets for the projection of maritime power and provide operational freedom for US Navy away from its own sea shores as they extend the line of sight for the US Navy due to radar stations and observational posts established on these islands. But at the same time, these islands can very easily become the operational nightmare due to their natural geographic vulnerability in open seas.

There is already a debate is going on within the US national security council about rising precision strike capabilities of Chinese Navy and threat it poses to the US bases in Indian Ocean and the Pacific. In 2014, Carnes Lord and Andrew S Erickson, both professors at US Naval War College, penned “Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific” which presented a case study about vulnerabilities of US naval basing in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

“American seapower requires a robust constellation of bases to support global power projection. Given the rise of China and the emergence of the Asia-Pacific as the center of global economic growth and strategic contention, nowhere is American basing access more important than in this region. Yet manifold political and military challenges, stemming not least of which from rapidly-improving Chinese long-range precision strike capabilities, complicate the future of American access and security here.”, says the writers.

The advent of guided missile technology and advancements in ballistic missiles submarines in naval warfare after the World War II changed the entire complexion of forward bases on these islands and their security. In any war scenario, such islands would naturally become the first target of enemy naval fleets and respective aviation wing. Today, both the US and Chinese Navies operate ballistic missiles which can literally remove such advanced naval bases from the face of the planet along with everyone and everything on the islands. In this backdrop, it would be natural to ask if this artificial Chinese island is going to be a strategic asset to PLAN or its biggest vulnerability in case of actual conflict?   

Indian Guided Missile Destroyers and Balance of Maritime Power in Arabian Sea

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

In every modern naval fleet, destroyers play critical role due to their versatility, agility, fire power and longer reach. Introduced at the beginnings of 20^th century as Torpedo Boat Destroyers" (TBD) were "large, swift, and powerfully armed torpedo boats designed to destroy other torpedo boats. After Russio-Japanese War, destroyers began to evolve as true long range mutli-mission ships. 

Two World Wars during the last century played a critical role in evolution of destroyers. Aerial threat and advanced German U-boats, emerged as a nightmare for the Allied navies. This forced naval engineers and ship designers to come with the new designs of destroyers giving it capability against these two new threats. They were fitted with new anti-aircraft guns, radar, and forward-launched ASW weapons, in addition to their existing light guns, depth charges, and torpedoes. 

After the World War II, the advent of guided missile was a major advancement in maritime warfare allowing the destroyers to expand their combatant roles and taking over the missions previously fulfilled by much larger ships i.e. battleships and cruisers. This expansion of operational capability of destroyers, for the first time, allowed them to perform independent operations as well. 

Today, only few nations have the capability to design, build and commission guided missile destroyers. The operational orbit of destroyer today, includes land attacks and strike missions (through cruise missiles), fleet defense against aerial threats (through on board long range radars and SAM system), anti-submarine (through torpedo) and anti-ship operations (through anti-ship missiles). Earlier generation of naval destroyers were not multi-mission capable. They were either fleet air defense ship or ballistic missile ship. County Class of UK and Kashin Class of USSR, introduced in 1958-60, were basically air defense destroyer designs.

As the miniaturization of nuclear war-heads has turned cruise missiles into nuclear cruise missiles, guided missile destroyers have emerged as supplementary platform for any nation’s nuclear triad strengthening its 2^nd strike capability.

Along with the evolution of missiles, radars and onboard sensors of a destroyer, the missile launchers have evolved as well. From early single and twin arm launchers (MK 13 & MK 11) to modern Vertical Launch System (MK 41 VLS), this evolution of launchers has enabled the modern ships to carry a lot more guided missiles (both SAM and SSM) in the form of a missile magazine.

Despite all their multi mission nature, fact remains that destroyers due to their larger size can be detected by enemy submarines and Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). In order to overcome this intrinsic shortcoming of destroyers, stealth factor was introduced in the design philosophy of the destroyers.

Indian Navy's Modern Guided Missile Destroyers:

Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).

As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014. The remaining two - Kochi and Chennai - are expected to join service by early 2016. Right now, Kolkata class destroyers are the biggest destroyer ships designed and built in India.

Just like Delhi class, Kolkata class also has a follow on design project known as ‘Project 15-B’ or Vishakhapatnam Class. MDL launched INS Vishakhapatnam, the first of four 7,300 tons Project 15B guided missile destroyers being built for the Indian Navy (IN), in Mumbai on 20^th April. IN officials said it would be commissioned in July 2018 and delivery of the three follow-on platforms at two year intervals will be completed by 2024 at an overall cost of INR 293.40 billion (USD4.89 billion).

Key differences of Project 15A and Project 15B include the relocation of its sonar to the bow from the hull; the design of its mast, which houses its main radar, has also been revised to further reduce its radar cross section.

Other changes include reshaping of the hull to accentuate its stealth features and the addition of a rail-less helicopter traversing system.

• According to IN, INS Vishakhapatnam would be fitted with the IAI-Elta-designed EL/M-2248 Multi-Function Surveillance Threat Alert Radar (MF-STAR) to provide guidance to 32 Barak-8/NG air-defense missiles.

• The destroyer will also be fitted with IAI-Elta EL/M-2238 S-band (2 to 4 GHz) 3-D volume air surveillance radar (STAR) radar and a Thales LW-08 D-band air search radar.

• INS Vishakhapatnam 's principal weapon will be 16 BrahMos anti-ship/ land attack cruise missiles, co-developed by the DRDO and Russia.

• The ship's anti-submarine warfare capability includes twin-tube launchers and RBU-6000 SMERCH-2 rocket launchers

• A license-built 76 mm Oto Melara Super Rapid Gun, four Russian AK-630 close-in weapon systems and a 127 mm main gun, which is still under negotiation.
  
  
• It can also carry two multiple-role helicopters (e.g., Sea King or HAL Dhruv helicopters).
  
  
• Total Atmosphere Control (TAC) System; this system will enable the crew to operate the ship in regions of  NBC fall out.

According to Asian Defense military blog, "In its quest to become a powerful three-dimensional blue-water force and maintain a fleet of around 140 "surface and sub-surface combatants", the Navy already has 30 warships and six submarines on order in various Indian shipyards."

Apart from this buildup of guided missile destroyers, Indian Navy is pursuing an ambitious $16 billion USD plan to modernize its surface and sub-surface fleets. Project-17 is yet another ambitious project to build 6,000 tons stealth frigates.

According to Chietigj Bajpaee, an Indian defense analyst, Indian has ambitious plans for the development of a 160-plus ship navy, comprising three aircraft carrier battle groups by 2022. More than 40 warships and submarines are on order or under construction at the country's three major shipyards. These include stealth destroyers, anti-submarine corvettes and stealth frigates. These vessels will supplement and in some cases replace the country's older destroyers. 

According to some estimates, Currently, Indian Navy is the world’s fifth largest maritime force but it would take 3rd position, after China and US, within the next 15 years when Indian Navy would eventually complete its modernization.

Indian security establishment and strategic community consider the rise of India’s trade through sea as the primary driving force behind this ambitious modernization as Bajpaee put it in his interview.

But for a more objective analysis of this ambitious Indian naval modernization, the prevailing bitter truths of regional geopolitics like traditional rivalries between the countries like China-Japan maritime tension, India-Pakistan, India-China energy competition and China-US standoff over Taiwan, cannot be overlooked. These geopolitical realities have reshaped the Asian security architecture for the 21^st century, where arms race, increased defense spending and a desire for ubiquitous military presence in the Indian Ocean are dominant trends.

The strategic maritime competition between China and the US in the South China Sea is the biggest driver behind the Indian naval ambitions. As an indirect consequence of this strategic competition and Indian counter-strategy to it, the maritime balance of power in Arabian Sea between Pakistani and Indian naval forces is rapidly tipping in favor of India; thus creating serious maritime security concerns for regional stability and Pakistan’s seawards defenses.    

Implication of Indian Naval Expansion for the Maritime Power of Balance in Arabian Sea:

By looking at the design philosophy of Indian naval fleet, it becomes evident that Indian Navy is preparing for complete NBC/ WMDs scenarios. The pursuance of nuclear triad remains the ultimate long term objective in Indian strategic thinking to deter Chinese military modernization and expanding influence in the Indian Ocean.

In this strategic milieu, the inclusion of stealth guided missile destroyers would further this growing maritime disparity between Pakistan and India. A scenario involving multiple Indian navy ships, armed with dozens of nuclear armed missiles, would be no less than a nightmare for small Pakistan Navy.  

Even we take nuclear WMDs out of the picture, the conventional arsenal of IN poses serious challenge to Pakistani naval installations and other industrial targets. 

Indian Threat & State of Pakistan Navy:

The establishment of NSFC, back in May 2012, was perceived as Pakistan's announcement of existence of country's maritime strategic deterrence in form of a nuclear submarine project. Back in 2012, ISPR issued its press release which read, "The force, which is the custodian of the nation's 2nd strike capability, will strengthen Pakistan's policy of credible minimum deterrence and ensure regional stability.” This statement cemented the impression further that Pakistan having nuclear submarine program. It has been three years since the NSFC was established but still Pakistan's surface fleet remains precariously exposed to Indian Navy's overwhelming technical and numerical superiority in Arabian Sea. Nation is still looking towards the strategic decision makers and security managers to put Pakistan's 2nd strike capability in operational state in order to give PN much needed deterrence capability.   

PN currently does not operate any single ship armed with long range land attack cruise missile to give it a true guided missile capability. Although, the Ex-Type 21 ships (Tariq Class) acquired from the UK in 1993-94 are classified as destroyers in PN but fact remains that these ships were built as frigates originally. These PN Ships were rearmed with American and Chinese anti-ship missiles (Harpoon and C-802). But Harpoons do not give any advantage to Pakistan Navy as Indian Navy has also acquired Harpoon Block II missiles (Range 130 Km) for its latest P-8I MPA aircraft.

But Pakistan's maritime security worries in context of Indian naval modernization do not end there; PN's sub-surface fleet, which can provide a considerable deterrence and sea-denial capabilities against enemy's overwhelmingly larger surface fleet is also precariously out numbered.

PN currently has only 5 conventional submarines (3 Agosta 90-B and 2 Agosta-70) and 2 Agosta-70s have reached their retirement age. Since 2010, PN has been looking for various options to strengthen its submarine fleet but so far no confirmed deal has been signed. Latest news suggest that PN may eventually acquire Chinese made conventional diesel submarines. Originally, PN requires 12 submarines. This requirement was laid out in Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP) 2015. It is high time for PN to expedite the acquisition process. Apart from getting Chinese submarines, Pakistan is also looking for surplus Western subs. In this pursuit, Turkey can provide Pakistan with German Type-209 submarines which it wanted to modernize but then went for latest Type-214.

Pakistan also needs to increase the strength of its surface fleet. News is that PN is considering to acquire 4 more F-22P type frigates. Pakistan must look at the potential acquisition of Chinese destroyers. Chinese platforms would allow Pakistan to integrate Pakistani cruise missile Babur on them giving Pakistan the deterrence against the maritime threats from India.

Redefining Maritime Minimum Credible Deterrence: 

Pakistan Navy cannot match its Indian counterpart one to one basis neither it is required keeping in minds the size of Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and coastline length. But then there is a third and more relevant factor in this equation of indo-Pak maritime power projection which PN will has to balance. The third factor is growing expeditionary nature of Indian Naval modernization. Evidently, Indian Navy is seeking to build ‘army maneuver through sea’ capability in joint ops doctrine with Indian Army. Minimum credible deterrence threshold for maritime arena, in Arabian Sea, will have to be redefined by PN. The share of Pakistan Navy in annual defense allocation must also be redefined as per this reevaluated minimum credible deterrence parameters in maritime power projection. Acquisition of more F-22P frigates and some Chinese built destroyers would become the eventual consequence of any such reevaluation. PN will have to become a capable brown water navy with limited expeditionary capabilities. 

Seeking Self-Reliance:

Pakistan Navy needs to take a page from Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) success in self-reliance in ship building. Just like PAF’s JF-17 Thunder, PN needs to initiate a joint venture with China or Turkey to design and build indigenous destroyer. Pakistan must become a player in the geopolitical game being played in Indian Ocean rather than being a pawn. Building a strong ship building industry is also vital for Pakistan from pure economic perspective. It can attract foreign customer and earn foreign reserve.    

But this is a mid to long term plan.  For now, the most realistic option for Pakistan would be to concentrate on enhancing two basic maritime capabilities against the Indian Navy's surface fleet at war footings i.e.  Sea denial and Coastal defense.  

Sea Denial:

For rapid sea denial, what Pakistan Navy can do is to concentrate on aerial operations capabilities in open Ocean and raise the number of missile boats in surface fleet. Pakistan Air Force has already expanded the operational orbit of JF-17 with integrating CM-400AKG hyper-sonic anti-ship missiles. Both PAF and PN must expedite the deliveries of these planes to PN. According to media reports, PN is interested in 30 JF-17s to raise 2 squadrons. Air launched version of C-802 anti-ship missile is also being integrated on Thunders, Keeping in mind the size of Mig-29K and Su-30MKI fleet of Indian Navy, Pakistan Navy must revised its requirement for JF-17s to 60-70 to raise minimum 4 squadrons. How these aircraft integrate with existing fleet of Pakistan naval aviation wing would determine their effectiveness during the actual air-sea battle. 

Coastal Defense:

For coastal defense, Pakistan has built fast missile boats, these small boats can prove invaluable defense against growing numbers of Indian guided missile destroyer fleet. These boats are easier to build and maintain with minimum resources and time. Media reports suggest that Pakistan has increased its requirement of Azmat class Fast Attack Craft (FAC) to 8 from current strength of 2. It will help in coastal defense but due to their limited green water capabilities (shorter range, lower displacement) they cannot perform sea denial operations in open sea far from coast line but these ships (each armed with 8 C-802) are inarguably the best option for coastal defense. 

It will be only prudent to remind once again what renowned American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan once said about the Indian Ocean and its importance in the 21st century when global trade has made this Ocean strategically the most important geography on the globe. 

‘Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia, the destiny of the world will be decided on its waters.’

  

India: A Drive to Become 'Blue Water Navy'

Indian Navy recently concluded its annual theater level exercise TROPEX-2015 in Indian Ocean. Two carrier groups, Viraat and Vikramaditya, were deployed simultaneously in different seas of the Indian Ocean. Total 50 ships and 70 aircraft took part in the exercise where Indian Navy's operational plans and a completely  digital inter-fleet communication were validated. Along with two air craft carriers, Indian Navy deployed almost every kind of Naval assets from Naval Aviation( Mig-29K, P-8I) to Anti-Submarine platforms (INS Kamorta) to Guided Missile Destroyers (INS Kolkata) and units of Indian Coast Guards as well. During the exercise, supersonic cruise missile Brahmos was also test fired from one of the Kolkata class destroyer. Mig-29K demonstrated various operations while Indian Naval satellite Rukmani has been described as 'pivotal in ensuring seamless connectivity between triad of surface, sub surface and air platforms of Indian Navy. 

   

ANALYSIS: 

Indian Navy has been striving hard for becoming a 'Blue Water Navy' and TROPEX-2015 is among major exercises where Indian Navy test its ability to perform different zones simultaneously, a fundamental requirement of any Blue Water Navy. Recently, Indian Government has announced to launch a $8 billion program to produce more ships for Indian Navy.

Interestingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Maldives, Mauritius Seychelles and Sri Lanka during this month to reinforce India’s foreign policy objectives as well. Main aim of his visit is to use Indian maritime diplomacy in order to secure Indian interests in the these strategically located island nations of the Indian Ocean. China has made financial and maritime development overtures in Sri Lanka and Maldev which are being perceived by Delhi as a challenge to her own maritime security. 

US military bases in India: Emergence of New Strategic Order in Asia

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

US President Obama has begun his 3 days official visit to India today. The visit is considered a significant one as  President Obama will be the first ever US president invited as chief guest on annual Indian Republican Day parade in Delhi on 26th January. It is expected that growing strategic partnership between the two states would enter in next phase through a series  of strategic agreements in field of defense, nuclear cooperation, security, diplomacy and trade. President Obama has already declared India as a strategic partner in his Asian Pivot strategy.

It is being reported that,during this visit,in response to a US proposal, India is to throw open its military,air and naval bases to the US which means that the US will have permanent military footstep in India as well. This deal is certainly going to change the strategic equation in Asia. It is believed that in return to this offer India would be able to use the US military communication setup in Indian Ocean along with other . But, the most significant clause, being reported, is related to joint security pact between the two states where India would also get US to fight alongside it in case of a war. Considering the Indian doctrine of "Two Front War" (a response to threat which stems from strategic partnership between Islamabad and Beijing), this deal is ought to be the counter-balance strategic equation among the Asian nuclear states where two out of three, are perceived to have an undeclared alliance against the third (India). Now after the inclusion of world's only super power in this equation, the strategic balance of power hangs in middle.

This is not the first time when such a proposal has been moved by the US. Last such attempt was made during the previous Indian regime of congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and it was shot down by allies then. Defence Minister Antony too had vetoed it saying that it would compromise security of India. These clauses would come under the renewal of Defence pact signed in 2005. Under this pact, US had supplied India around $10 billion worth of arms. Now as the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has replaced the government in Delhi, officials of both the states are hopeful that this new agreement would be reached eventually during the current visit of President Obama.

Apart from giving the US military access to bases of Indian forces, this proposed agreement would enable the US to have direct access to India's secured communication network. This access will enable the pentagon and other US bodies to have eyes and ears within India as well. In return, India would have access to the high-tech military hardware and active military  support of the US in event of war. 

The advantage, the NDA defence ministry argues, is that in turn Indian ships can get real time information through the US networks which is not possible today. According to the NDA's defense ministry, these agreements -known as "Foundational Agreements", are just the formal announcement for the cooperation which is already there and an arrangement that is already 'operational'. These agreements include the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement, the Logistics Support Agreement and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for geo-spatial cooperation.It points out that Indian ships in Gulf waters do refuel from US ships in sea and neither countries have objected. Now that US has shifted base to Asia, India is seen as a partner by US.

Indian response was promising for the US as Prime Minister Modi had instructed his defence minister to finalize the paperwork before Obama’s visit indicating Delhi's willingness for opening new vistas of strategic bilateral cooperation with the US.

ANALYSIS:

This new proposed strategic cooperation deal is a significant development in the region and is going to change the strategic scenario in Asia. But the implications of this agreement would be global.

1. This agreement would be perceived by Islamabad as a new strategic partnership against national security interests of Pakistan. Pakistan already has grave concerns over Indian presence in Afghanistan. 
2. This agreement would be a key development against Chinese strategic interests as well. Though it is not clear yet which bases India would allow the US to utilize, but to Beijing, it would be part of existing US encirclement strategy against China. 
3. US already has massive military presence in the East and South East of China (i.e. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea) now with this strategic partnership would establish the US military footprint in South of China as well. It is worth-noticing fact that the US forces are already there in Afghanistan which border China from West.
4. It would be interesting to see how Moscow reacts over this new development. But one fact is certain that this strategic partnership would put India's so-called Non-Alignment stance to an end.
5. The ongoing strategic maritime competition for dominance over Indian Ocean between China and US led alliance of India,Japan and Australia  would intensify further. Smaller players like Pakistan and Sri Lanka are bound to play significant role due to their geographical proximity to India.   
6. As for as Pakistan is concerned, this partnership between India and the US necessitates a similar long term strategic arrangement between China and Pakistan. Pakistan foreign policy must seek overtures to bring about a balance in Islamabad's relations with the US and Russia as well.
7. Political change in Sri Lanka is also a significant development in context of overall emerging strategic order in the region. Sir Lanka has expelled RAW's station chief in Colombo for alleged involvement in ouster of pro-China Rajapaksa regime in recent election. Against Indian wishes, new Sri Lankan government has not changed pro-China policy of previous government due to which India felt that it was time to seek the US military support to counter Chinese maritime strategy around India. In this backdrop, Sri Lankan geography would continue to hold a significant strategic value in the region.
8. Sri Lanka is also vital for the native American interests as well. Chinese naval out reach in Indian Ocean has raised eyebrows in Pentagon and the US Navy which consider the Chinese moves to build naval bases in Sri Lanka as a hostile move. The strategic Naval base of the US in Deago Garcia is located South of Sri Lanka.

All these potential factor establish the fact that a new Asian strategic order is going to take shape in coming months in which the US would assert itself through military partnership and diplomatic outreach to increase the influence in the regional geopolitics. This is what the US envisioned in her Asia-Pivot policy. Indo- US strategic partnership framework is vital prong of this strategy which is primarily designed to encircle and contain China.

What Pakistan Navy required the most?

Keeping in view the dynamic security situation in the region and balance of maritime power projection capabilities in Arabian Sea, What you think Pakistan Navy needs urgently the most?