Shahzad Masood Roomi
Ahmed Shah Masood – in Brussels
Afghanistan proved strategic black hole for
British and Soviet empires in 19th and 20th centuries and
it looks like that after the destruction of two former superpowers, the US is
going to vanish in this black hole in 21st century. But this time
around the war has very distinctive and unique dynamics than any other previous
attempts to capture this land lock country.
Pakistan,
along with many other Muslim World countries is faced with sub-conventional
security threats. The covert war is not hypothetical anymore.
Since 9/11, Indian political and military
establishment had pounced upon the western military invasion of Afghanistan to
wage its own war against Pakistan, encircling it from the western theatre as
well. Indian strategy became devastatingly effective against the Pakistani
state only due to presence of the US troops in Afghanistan compromised and disoriented
government in Islamabad.
Indians had already put their
covert war plan in motion during the Musharraf era but the real ferocity and
ruthlessness was unleashed after the installed “democracy” in Pakistan in 2008.
In post elections era, almost all provincial governments formed consisted of
compromised separatists’ political parties having their links with India or the
CIA and the federal government too had their strong presence, hence was
compromised totally, crippling the national decision making at all levels. The
result is a catastrophic collapse of national institutions in Pakistan. Indians
are fully exploiting this chaos, sensing a repeat of the 1971 scenario. The
objectives of the western Zionists and Hindu Zionists have converged in a
lethal war against the Pakistani state and the armed forces. CIA has been
turning a blind eye to anti-Pakistan activities of Indians in Afghanistan since
their invasion.
American
war in Afghanistan has gone horribly wrong for them. Despite having the might
of 28 most powerful and advanced militaries of the world as allies, the US has
failed to bring Taliban on negotiating table on her terms. Americans are
sensing yet another shameful defeat in Asia after their misadventure in Vietnam
in 1970’s. But this time around the stakes are very high even for the Americans.
They cannot afford to leave Afghanistan as it will simply destroy their entire
foreign policy for 21st century. But they are not winning the war
either and this failure has frustrated the American administration like
anything. American economy has been devastated due to this protracted war.
After
10 years of their epically failed Afghan enterprise now they are forced to look
at a face saving exit from Afghanistan which is simply not available to them.
As the last ditch effort, Pentagon and Obama administration launched a new
psychological war against Pakistan army and ISI to blame for the American
failure in Afghanistan. ISI and CIA have already been in a cut throat spy war
within Pakistan since the last 4 years. This war went in next level in 2010
after Rymond Davis and OBL episodes. Now, this rambling is no more hidden. CIA
wants ISI to clean the American mess but both the ISI and Pakistan Army remain
defiant this time. Americans were hoping for a similar response which they got
from Islamabad after 9/11 but to their shock and disliking this time Pakistan
army is more concerned with Pakistan’s own security challenges and interests in
Afghanistan. Indians are also panicked and nervous over these developments.
This is not a diplomatic crisis rather it is a complete bilateral breakdown
between Pakistan and the US. And for the Indians, it is a simply catastrophic!
Within Pakistan, there is no political,
moral and legal help available for Pakistan Army in fight against
sub-conventional threats. They are fighting this complex multi-prong war on
their own. The national media is without any direction, penetrated by fifth
columnists like SAFMA and is being deployed against the state, armed forces and
security agencies.
Similarly, the
judicial system of the country has collapsed in complete sense! SC has failed
to even ban the political parties that are involved in target killings in
Karachi. Whose activists have taken terrorism training in Indian camps and have
confessed in front of law. Recent verdict on Karachi case by SC is too weak to
bring about any positive change in prevailing carnage situation and salvage the
city once known as city of lights.
Pakistan’s
current security crisis neither developed overnight nor it is an outcome of
9/11 alone. The prevailing security dilemma has a bitter and harsh background
that spans over 20 years now. Without understand this background, future
dynamics of war on terror cannot be analyzed.
Background:
The
roots of prevailing security crisis of Pakistan go back to 1990’s. During the
Afghan jihad, Pakistan army and the ISI were controlling the Afghan war
strategy. ISI combined nearly 50 resistance groups into six parties’ resistance
alliance. There was a complete unity of command as far as the operations of
these six resistance parties were concerned as almost all the resistance groups
had close operational collaboration with ISI. No clash or rift within these six
parties was there during all this time of Jihad against Soviet Union. Differences
and divisions within the resistance groups emerged by the end of 1988 when the
regime in Pakistan was changed, General Zia-ul-Haq had been assassinated along
with then DG ISI; PPP government had established and there was a new leadership
in ISI as well. After the Geneva accord, the US had almost accomplished her
project in Afghanistan. Soviet Union had been defeated and humiliated;
Americans has avenged the Soviets for their role in American defeat in Vietnam.
The US had practically abandoned Pakistan and Afghanistan in 1989. Pakistan’s
military aid was blocked under the Presseler amendment including those F-16s
for which Pakistan had paid already. But this blockade of military aid was a
much lesser problem than the one in making on the other side of Durand Line due
to strategic confusion over Afghan policy in post Zia era.
Pakistan’s
Afghan policy throughout 1990’s remains directionless and disoriented. Pakistan
failed tremendously in cultivating the strategic gains of Afghan jihad as PPP
government and Pakistani military establishment abandoned the Mujaideen groups
in Northern Afghanistan while maintained support for Pushtun commanders like
Hikmat Yar to capture Kabul. This strategy was completely in contradiction of
Pakistan’s Afghan policy of 1980’s and created a dangerous ethnic and
linguistic fragmentation among the former resistance groups. Resultantly, Afghanistan
indulged in a bloody civil war after the fall of Communist government there in
1992. Kabul was captured by Ahmed Shah Masood’s militia which was abandoned by
the ISI after Soviet withdrawal. United Front (also known as Northern Alliance)
came to being as Pakistan’s Afghan policy took a nose dive in early 1990’s.
Ahmed
Shah Masood was the most influence Tajik commander in Northern Afghanistan.
During the Afghan jihad, he repelled 9 Soviet attempts on Panjsher Valley
earning the title ‘Lion of Panjsher’. Being a pure military strategist,
patriotic Afghan and devout Muslim, he had a larger vision for Afghanistan with
multiethnic government in Kabul. He was well aware of tribal culture, ethnic
diversity and social dogmas of Afghan society. No single ethnic group could
control Kabul, this was his conviction regarding political future of Afghan
capital.
On
the other hand, Pakistani decision to leave Masood created an opening for the
Zionist forces to further their agendas. Indians began to create their
footprint in Northern Afghanistan during the same time. In 1994, Taliban began
to rise in Afghanistan. Though they brought much needed stability in
Afghanistan after capturing Kabul in 1996 but fact remains they were too naïve
to understand the regional security situation and formulate a foreign policy
accordingly to bring Afghanistan out of decades old turmoil. Taliban failed to
form diplomatic relations with the world except Pakistan, UAE and Saudi Arabia;
three countries who recognized the Taliban regime. Taliban captured Southern
provinces of the country with brisk rapidity but Northern Afghanistan
particularly Panjsher Valley, proved the ultimate challenge for Taliban which
they could not overcome. Despite a stable government in Kabul, Afghanistan
still remained fragmented on ethnic basis. Fierce clashes between Taliban and
Northern Alliance continued till Taliban were removed from power in 2001 after
9/11.
Taliban
regime was not hostile towards Pakistan and they eradicated Indian presence
from Afghanistan. Taliban never created any law and order problem for Pakistan.
After a long time, Pakistan was enjoying the support of Kabul regime in
complete sense. But it remained a sad fact that it was not a multiethnic
government in Kabul; one that could bring durable stability to salvage the
war-torn country. In 1996-97 during the second term of PPP in Islamabad,
Pakistan stepped up support for Taliban against Northern Alliance persistently
following the failed Afghan policy which was deployed during the first term of
PPP. This only pushed the anti-Pakistan sentiments among Tajiks and Uzbiks to a
new level. This provided Indians with much needed opportunity to create their
assets in Afghanistan. Masood fell into Indian arms when he was offered Mi-17
helicopters, $ 70 million cash and high altitude weapons to fight against
Taliban from India.
Americans,
on the other hand, surprisingly, became active again in Afghanistan and began
to establish direct contacts with Taliban and Northern Alliance both. They were
preparing ground to initiate the Great Game in the region which was to shake
and addisturb the entire Middle East in proceeding years.
It
was also during the Clinton administration when Jewish and Christian Zionist
resurrected the demon of Takfir and it was brought in the region.
Afghans were busy in turf wars.
During
the Clinton administration, the US had almost 10 opportunities to capture or
neutralize Osama Bin Laden but CIA restrained or ‘failed’ to accomplish the
task. In 1995, during his stay in Sudan, CIA had tracked him down and an
operation was devised to apprehend him alive but the operation was never
authorized by the Clinton administration. In May 1996, OBL left Sudan and
reached Jalalabad, Afghansitan. After two months, in August 1997, he issued
Fatwa against the US which was published in a London based newspaper. It is
also an interesting question that why he waited to come to Afghanistan to
declare war against the US whilst he could have done the same while during his
stay in Sudan?
Masood’s
acumen was not limited to military and warfare domain only but he was well
aware of the bigger picture emerging in Afghanistan. He was really worried
about the expansion of Al-Qaeda’s influence in Afghanistan, particularly fast
spread of its violent ideology. Masood had seen Arab Mujahideen fighting
against Soviet invasion. Al-Qaeda activists and Arab Mujahideen were on two
very different ideological and psychological plains.
In
1997, Robin Raphale from US State Department visited Ahmed Shah Masood and told
Masood to surrender to the Taliban. She obtained a clear answer with Massoud
stating that as long as he controlled an area the size of his hat he would
continue to defend it from the Taliban. Similarly, at one point in the war, in
1997, the Taliban were vulnerable and the road to the capital, Kabul, was wide
open. Two top foreign policy officials in the Clinton administration flew to
northern Afghanistan to convince Masood - without success - the United Front
not to take advantage of a opportunity to make crucial gains against the
Taliban. Before the United Front could strike, Assistant Secretary of
State Rick Indefurth and American U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson flew to
northern Afghanistan and tried to convince the leadership of the United Front
that this was not the time for an offensive. Why US administration wanted
Taliban to succeed in Afghanistan despite having close ties with Osama Bin
Laden and their more strict interpretation of Islam? This is a million dollar
question.
Masood
kept fighting against Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters. He warned the world about
a possible high level attack on American soil during his address to the
European Union parliament in Brussels, Belgium in April 2011 almost five months
before 9/11. He was invited for a special address by then president of European
parliament Nicole Fontaine. During his historic speech, apart from asking the world
community for the help of Afghan people he openly warned that his own
intelligence setup has gained limited knowledge about an imminent and large
scale terrorist attack on the US soil by Al-Qaeda. It was only after this
warning, CIA began to establish links with Masood to understand his view point
and discuss about his warning. In August 2001, a preliminary report was
prepared in CIA to review the American Afghan policy but it was all too late by
then. A more powerful and veiled faction of the US administration, controlled
by global Zionist forces, has executed its plan for so-called American
domination in 21st century.
Ahmed Shah Masood – in Brussels
Two
Al-Qaeda assassins, part of a thousand years old creed, posing as journalists carried
out a suicide attack on Masood on 9th September 2001 during an
interview. Bomb was hidden in the camera. Masood got seriously injured and he
was rushed to a military hospital in a helicopter but he could not make it to
the hospital and died in helicopter. Lion of Panjsher had fallen eventually
after evading previous attempts on his lives. Afghanistan has lost a courageous
and visionary leader. His assassination was high profile one and was carried
out by extremely well trained and professional assassins.
‘Another
Perl Harbor’ occurred to America after two days on 11 September 2001. War on terror
was about to begin. World was about to undergo a complete strategic shift.
Pakistan’s worst security nightmare was about to begin!
*******************
American Wars: Afghanistan to Iraq and Beyond!
‘We
were going to find out who did this, and kick their ass.’ Gorge W. Bush
wrote in his memoirs after 9/11. The idea of transparent inquiry and finding
the real perpetrators of 9/11 were taken over by the sheer sense of
retribution. Afghanistan was invaded on 6th October 2001 and
Neoconservatives were eyeing Iraq, Iran and Syria as their next targets.
Amazingly, even the New Yorkers who lost their love ones on 9/11 were shocked
by the response coming out from Washington particularly the decision to invade
Iraq, in 2003, met with severe public criticism and condemnation.
The
policy level blunders made by successive Pakistani governments and security
managers throughout the 1990’s began to haunt Pakistan. Northern Alliance
became the US frontline battalion in Pentagon’s Operation Enduring Freedom.
Taliban government was toppled within few weeks. Anti-Pakistan elements were
put in power corridors of Kabul and Pakistan lost almost all the assets in
Afghanistan.
In
2004, it began to surface that Taliban quick retreat was part of their plan to
engage the invading forces in long and painful guerilla war. Afghanistan has
proved tougher than Vietnam for the occupying coalition forces. Just like the
Soviets, tactical victories by US/NATO forces in Afghanistan soon turned into
the strategic encirclement of the allied forces by Afghan resistance groups,
which have adopted an immensely difficult to counter ‘strategy of void’ denying
any target for allied forces to hit at.
American invasion turned already war torn Afghanistan into a post
apocalypse wasteland. The scorch earth strategy wiped out many villages. The US
ground forces hunt more civilians than Taliban and terrorists. Professor Marc
W. Herold of the University
of New Hampshire, tallied more than 1000 deaths in US led attacks in Afghanistan
during 2009. Deaths occurred due to resistance attacks and terrorist incidents
are not included here. 2010 was a security nightmare for Afghanistan as well
where the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan
(UNAMA) recorded 1,271 Afghan civilian deaths in the American-led war in
the first half of 2010.
As all the coalition partners remain confused about future of war
on terror, Afghan Taliban and other resistance elements are the only
stakeholders who are not perplexed over this nerve-breaking cliffhanger. In
fact they are getting more focused inside Afghanistan and are hitting the
allied forces with more lethality at a higher frequency.
Year
|
US
|
UK
|
Other
|
Total
|
2001
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
12
|
2002
|
49
|
3
|
18
|
70
|
2003
|
48
|
0
|
10
|
58
|
2004
|
52
|
1
|
7
|
60
|
2005
|
99
|
1
|
31
|
131
|
2006
|
98
|
39
|
54
|
191
|
2007
|
117
|
42
|
73
|
232
|
2008
|
155
|
51
|
89
|
295
|
2009
|
317
|
108
|
96
|
521
|
2010
|
499
|
103
|
109
|
711
|
2011
|
355
|
34
|
83
|
472
|
Total
|
1801
|
382
|
570
|
2753
|
US/NATO fatalities of war in Afghanistan
All this death and destruction did not remain confined within
Afghan borders. Pakistan and Iran faced a direct and systematic spillover of
this war. Pakistan particularly paid a harsh price for becoming the front line
ally. This spillover was deliberate plan to expand the theatre of war so that
other countries could be attacked as well under the same pretext.
In 2003, ridiculous case of Iraqi WMD was created in international
media to justify the US invasion in Iraq. Learned minds within the US had been
blown whistles about the real motives of next US war. They thought it was the
oil for which Iraq was attacked but the real intention became clear much later
which proved that Iraqi oil was the least concern of the Zionists. Dividing
Iraq on ethnic and sectarian basis was the primary target. Goal was to redraw
the Iraqi map on ethnic and sectarian bases as part of great game just like
Ottoman Empire was dismembered on nationalistic bases after the World War
I.
To achieve this, US Special Forces, trained in culture, religion
and language, unleashed the real death and destruction in Iraq which continues
till today. The entire social fabric of Iraq was torn apart by fragmenting it
into different violent sectarian factions each fighting against other.
The US forces engaged the Shiite and Kurds and isolated them while
in Sunni areas Green Zones were established to protect the US forces and the
rest of Sunni areas are still in anarchy. After Iraq’s occupation, there was a
sudden uprising of Kurds in Northern Iraq which also affected Turkey who later
on had to commence a complete counterinsurgency operation inside Iraq to subdue
the Kurd uprising.
Most of the analysts dismissed the real objectives of the Zionists
as conspiracy theories but it is more of a conspiracy than a theory. The
spillover pattern of American wars in ME explains this Zionist plot to
establish a Greater Middle East with too many smaller and weaker states. Before
9/11, there was no high intensity conflict within Muslim lands but after 10
years, the entire ME, Pakistan and Iran are faced with internal turmoil which
is tearing apart the local social fabric in these societies to imploding them
from within. Recently, the entire façade of Arab Spring, unrest in multiple ME
states and attack on Libya are next phase of the great game. Syria may become
the next target in this war. The phenomenon is unprecedented in modern history
and defies the most learned minds among Muslim lands.
American wars not only devastated Muslim states but it also hurting
the personal liberties with in Europe and the US. Daily Japan Today analyzed
the impact of WoT in following words,
“In the intervening years, however,
the war has produced various unintended consequences that threaten personal
freedom and other liberties enjoyed by progressive societies worldwide.
Stringent inspections delay cargo and personnel at border crossings. In many
cities, cameras constantly monitor the movement of vehicles and civilians
alike. Government wiretapping and surveillance procedures have been expanded.
Bank transactions are scrutinized as never before. Airport security measures
are annoying and sometimes even humiliating. In many ways, such intrusions
represent a victory for terrorists”.
The masses within the US/Europe are now fed up with this protracted
war and demanding termination of this perpetual conflict. EU and the US, both
are faced with severe economic challenges due to this prolonged war. But
instead on taking a corrective measure, the powerful Neoconservative band of
politicians, analysts, military professionals and power holders in Washington
is committed to continue follow coercive discourse and expand this war. This
contradiction between the public demand and American foreign policy is the
manifestation of differences between the real and stated objectives of war on
terror.
Global Terrorism & The Great Game!
Stated
purpose of the war was to bring the perpetrators of 9/11 to justice but behind
the façade of combating global terrorism the real objective of the US was to
establish a strong footprint in the heart of Asia to control the entire
Eurasian region.
The
prevailing security crisis in the region is an expression of a clash of two
violent ideologies which need each other to keep them alive and relevant. The
violent Takfiri extremists (nurtured by CIA/Mossad in modern times) and Western
imperialists are waging a ruthless war in the region to implement their
respective agendas but as stated above basically it is all one party which is
cultivating the boons from this rambling. Though the Khawarijs have always been
there among the Muslim societies but they never got to the power corridors
neither did they ever get considerable political clout anywhere in the Muslim
world. It is ironic how Al-Qaeda got so much strength and capabilities to
launch terrorist operations across the world? Why CIA did not destroy this
group in the start? Why Osama was given chance to come to Afghanistan? To get
to the answers of these questions, understanding the long term American
strategic objectives for 21st century and their relevance to the
regional geography is the key.
The Grand strategic Objectives of the US for
the 21st century are:
- Defense and Security of Israel for which it is essential to make sure that there is no Muslim nuclear power exists in the world. Pakistan and Iran become de-facto targets in Zionists’ agenda.
- Eradication of the Political Islam as an ideology. Being an ideological state, Pakistan is again a target.
- Control of global energy resources and related corridors both on land and sea.
- Control of global trade corridors. All the important trade and energy corridors in the region traverse through Pakistan.
- Containment of Russia.
- Containment of China. Pakistan is key ally of China and this again put Pakistan in the crosshair of all Zionists’ weapons.
Analysis
Pakistan’s
ideology, geography and military capabilities have put Pakistan in middle of the
storm. Pakistan is the gateways to the entire Eurasia which connect this
massive land mass to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan also lies in between all the
important trade corridors from India to Middle East and Central Asian states to
the Arabian Sea. Pakistan is the natural hub of all energy corridors as well.
No oil and gas pipe line can traverse between Middle East and South East Asia
bypassing Pakistan. Then Pakistan is a nuclear state with world sixth largest
military machine which is equipped with strategic weapons! But most
importantly, Pakistan is an ideological state as well. These unique features
put Pakistan in the centre stage of global rambling going on in the region for
the control of Eurasia and Indian Ocean.
Strategically,
control over Eurasia is critical for the global political domination. No
political or economic model can be put into motion without physically
controlling this all important region. Majority of the global population is
inhabited in Asia and Europe. So, the attraction is natural and Americans are
not the only one in the history with foreign policy ambitions like controlling
the world. British, Russian and Nazis have tried and failed and after 10 years
of war on terror, Americans’ fate has been sealed in graveyard of empires and
their entire game plan is falling apart!
Israel
destroyed the under construction nuclear installations in Iraq and Syria in
surgical strikes. These were act of war against two sovereign states but
Israeli actions were vindicated by the world powers. But first objective of the
US foreign policy has not yet been secured as Pakistan remains the ultimate
obstacle in the great game. Unlike other two victims of Israeli aggression
against their nuclear installations, Pakistan has many advantages due to which
has become a hard target for the Israel. Pakistan has been engaged in a more
complex and ruthless war where its own armed forces have been forced to indulge
into multiple low intensity conflicts (LICs) to create a global case against
her nuclear capability.
Almost
all of these objectives can be secured by military, economic and political coercion
except destroying political Islam. Political model of Islam is the worst
nightmare of the Western Zionists as it leads Muslim societies to the divine
concept of Khilafat. Khawarijs are their most potent tool and have been
deployed overtly for the first time after the Crusades. Just like Zionists,
Al-Qaeda uses the Muslim sentiments and emotions about the various Muslim lands
currently under foreign occupation. Both deploy similar psychological approach
to justify their violence as it was identified by veteran analyst of the
American policy making, Noam Chomsky,
“The new millennium quickly produced
two terrible crimes, added to the gloomy record of persisting ones. The first
was the terrorists’ attack of September 11; the second, the response to them,
surely taking a far greater toll of innocent lives, Afghan civilians who were
themselves victims of the suspected perpetrator of the crimes of September 11….
An inauspicious sign is that in both cases the crimes are considered right and
just, even noble, within the doctrinal framework of the perpetrators; and in
fact are justified in almost the same words. Bin Laden proclaims that violence
is justified in self-defense against infidels who invade and occupy Muslim
lands and against the brutal and corrupt government that they sustain there….
Bush and Blair proclaim, almost in identical words, that violence is justified
to drive evil from our lands. ”
Encircling
China by capturing strategic points around her is also part of American
strategic ambition. This is one reason behind the sudden Americans’ interest in
Kashmir issue. They would care least about regional peace and stability but
wants to solve the issue as per their plan just to get a strong footprint in
the South of China. At the beginning of war on terror, China was just a
developing country with US$ 212 in foreign reserves, an oversized military with
obsolete technology and politically isolated on global arena. Within 10 years
of this war, China has become the world’s largest economy that is pushing her
military development in top gear. In 2001, China was struggling to make a
decent 4th generation fighter jet and in 2011, China has almost
caught US aviation industry by producing 5th generation stealth
fighters.
The
Red Dragon (China) has replaced the Red Bear (Soviet Union) in the next battle
of global chessboard. Americans were not expecting the rise of China; not with
this pace at least. All their estimates have failed horrible. Today, the American
economy is sinking due to never ending overseas wars. For the Americans, the
best bet now is to leave the region unstable to cultivate more Al-Qaeda like terrorists
groups to be launched against China and its strategic ally, Pakistan.
Chinese
are also aware of the US game plan and needs Pakistan as their ally. In last
ten years, military and economic cooperation between the two countries has
increased tremendously. China is helping Pakistan in nuclear field as well when
Americans have given India an exceptional wavier in international laws to
become the member of nuclear club.
India
has emerged as biggest strategic ally of the US. But behind the façade of
partnership, both are trying to reap maximum benefits from each other. In presence
of strong Pak-China partnership, the US desperately wanted an ally in the
region. There is a very interesting game going on between both of these
partners. Indians want Americans to punish Pakistan for her role in Kashmir.
Indians are also eying all the high-tech US weapons to bolster her Pakistan
specific Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). Indian secured unprecedented nuclear
cooperation deal with the US in 2005. Indians got US support for a permanent
seat in UNSC. Afghanistan became the staging area for RAW to launch NSVA’s in
Pakistan from across the Durand Line. In return, India agreed to become the US
watchdog in the region. Now Indians are also desperate and panicked as they are
aware that sooner or later the US/NATO would be forced to leave Afghanistan. After
their withdrawal, India would lose Afghanistan and all her investment on TTP
would be wasted. Apart from that, Indians would have no role in the regional
security arrangement which would be the defense paradigm of future. Russian,
Chinese and Iranian are already negotiating on establishing their collective
missile defense shield against America’s future Aegis Ballistic missile threat.
India and China have too many issues to be strategic partners and Russians are
upset over close Indian ties with the US. But Russians are silent as India
still remains their largest arms export market. Keeping insight the US
influence in Indian market, this might change sooner than later. China and
Pakistan both perceive India as an existential threat.
Americans
are still in Afghanistan because Islamabad does not have a strong and patriotic
government. Current government is the real Achilles’ heel in overall national
security management but in the presence of a strong and patriotic government,
it would be safe to assume that Pakistan would join the SCO bloc
officially.
Iran
has become a critical factor in regional security equation. Iran is also
suffering from a proxy war being waged by the CIA proxy group Jindullah using
Baluchistan as base area. Target of this war was twofold; First, igniting a
sectarian unrest in Iran. Secondly, to create a rift between Islamabad and
Tehran with internal sectarian violence in Pakistan envisaged as a concomitant objective.
But Pakistani security and intelligence setup uprooted this CIA implanted band
of terrorists and salvaged the bilateral relations with Tehran. Since then,
there is a renewed cooperation between both states like gas pipeline project.
Americans are upset over this development but they cannot do anything about it
right now.
What
future holds for Pakistan? This is the most critical question demanding serious
answer as the fate of entire American war is dependent on how Pakistan decides
to proceed in tense and gloomy regional security scenario.
WoT and Pakistan
As
the entire edifice of American adventure in Afghanistan is collapsing, they
have moved to plan B against Pakistan which can be best described as the
reenactment of Cambodian Incursion of 1970’s. During the Vietnam War, the US
blamed Cambodia for supporting North Vietnamese guerillas against the American
forces and wanted to attack Cambodia to punish her. Cambodian government was
strong and did not allow the US to carry out operations against the alleged
sanctuaries of Viet Cong (popular name of National
Front for the Liberation of South Vietnam; NLF).
To get their
objective served, Americans first toppled Cambodian government and install a
pro-American dictator, General Lon Nol, who allowed US military operation
inside Cambodia. Americans made claims about their victory which are
controversial till now. Today after 40 years of Cambodian Incursion,
Vietnam has recovered from war but Cambodia is still in chaos and crisis due
to decisions of a compromised government. The US wants to turn Pakistan into
next Cambodia to claim victory in Afghanistan. There is very little difference
between the American strategies then and now, only the tactical and operational
details are different.
·
2001 – 2004: Pak and US
Cooperation against global terrorism began. Americans were given Pakistani air
bases and logistical support. CIA quietly expanded its covert network in FATA.
·
2004 – 2007: Sudden rise of
a violent, strong and ruthless anti-Pakistan militant group called TTP. Tribal elders were murdered by TTP to disrupt
the social setup of FATA. TTP and Al-Qaeda links surfaced. TTP expanded its
influence across FATA and overrun entire Malakand region.
·
2007 – 2010: ISI and
Pakistan army started to develop response strategy. TTP unleashed a ruthless
and bloody campaign of suicide bombing in Pakistani urban centers inflicting
more fatalities than Pakistan had to face in all her previous wars. The US
announced Af-Pak policy and declared Pakistan as part of battle field.
Pakistani security institutes unearthed the real face of TTP’s “jihad” and full
scale COIN operations were launched in Swat and FATA. 4GW was perceived by
national security institutions as clear and present threat.
Year
|
Number of suicide attacks
|
Deaths
|
2008
|
61
|
917
|
2009
|
80
|
1018
|
2010
|
52
|
1224
|
2011
|
35
|
591
|
Total
|
228
|
3750
|
Pakistani causalities in suicide attacks in last 4 years
Now, Pakistan army and ISI both have taken a strong stand on
Pakistan’s national security interests. They are defying the US openly. Number
of Suicide attacks in Pakistani cities has decreased. But Pakistanis and
security institutions had to pay the price of strategic blunders of Musharraf
regime and collusion of current regime with their blood. Pakistan launched
operations against foreign funded terrorists and CIA mercenaries in 2007 and it
took them 4 years to push these elements in Afghanistan where they are being
protected by the CIA/RAW and RAMA. Pakistan army cannot eradicate their
bastions across the Durand Line as the current government is still pursuing a
failed national security policy.
After a decade of bloodbath in the entire Af-Pak region now the
reality of this war has finally dawned on the Pakistanis. Ironically, in this
war, while Pakistani soldiers and officers were dying in battlefields, current
regime was busy in issuing visas to CIA spies disguised as diplomatic personnel
while ignoring the need of seeking intelligence clearance by the ISI. More than
35,000 Pakistanis have their lost in this war and there are 4 times more
injured or handicapped individuals. Pakistan economy took a direct hit as well.
Pakistan has faced US$ 70 billion loss during the last 10 years.
The TTP was created and supported to force Pakistan to own the War
on Terror (WoT). This was the most sinister move by the US to compel Pakistan
to fight their war. But this was just the beginning, after being dragged into
an endless war Pakistan was targeted by the US policy of fragmenting the
societies by exploiting various sectarian, religious, ethnic and even economic
fault lines to balkanize enemy states from within.
Though Pakistan army and ISI have achieved phenomenal success in
denying any strong base area within Pakistan but the security challenges remain
dire. Pakistan’s internal security profile is the biggest source of concern for
security managers. Current threat perception, both internal and external,
demands a complete national cohesion among policy making and security institutions.
Physical axis:
Pakistan Army
is already under extreme stress, thinned out and has taken heavy casualties,
fighting under great economic stress.
1.
Internal
Threats
a.
TTP
b.
BLA
c.
Armed
wings of political parties – MQM, ANP, PPP
d.
Sectarian
terrorist groups allied to TTP ideology – SSP, LeJ
e.
Sub-nationalist
political parties in the government destroying national infrastructure critical
to national defense, armed forces and security – Railways, PIA, OGDC, PSO etc.
2.
External Threats
a.
NATO
/US - deploying AF-Pak and 4GW.
b.
India
– Deploying 4GW
and Cold start.
Psy-Ops / Information warfare axis:
Pakistan
has failed in formulating a national media and information policy and
strategizing a plan to counter the anti-Pakistan and hostile enemy propaganda
both in peace and war times.
Pakistan,
especially the intelligence apparatus of the country, had to face the most
hardnosed media attacks after 2nd May, 2011. According to reports,
150,000,000 various analysis reports, editorials, blogs, op-ed, polls, survey
and investigative news were published in print and electronic media and
internet as part of sinister media campaign. Pakistani media and perception
management capabilities (read inabilities) of government were exposed.
Most of the
media assets, anchors, and analysts have become part of vicious psy-ops
launched to confuse masses, soften up the country and demoralize the armed
forces after massive US investment in Pakistani media. SMS campaign against
Pakistan army and air force after OBL episode was part of the demoralizing plan
against the armed forces. This entire campaign was aimed to create rifts at two
critical levels.
1.
To discredit Pakistan army among
general populace as national security institution
2.
To discredit Pakistani army
leadership among forces as loyal to their homeland
There is not a
single English Pakistani channel with global outreach and vision of presenting
the Pakistani perspective about the events happening in and around Pakistan
neither is there a panel of experts from Pakistan to defend her on the
international media. Despite 10 years of media onslaught, there is simply no
media policy and guideline for the electronic media to follow during the war
times.
**********
Future Dynamics of WoT
It seems that
the NATO allies of the US are in no mood to continue this protracted war
anymore. So, an unconditional deadline of 2014 was set in the Lisbon Summit in
November 2010 and the same timeline is mentioned in the Af-Pak review as well.
This makes it clear that the next four years would be absolutely abrasive from
the security point of view for the whole region.
After almost a decade, desperation in the US/NATO camps is quite
visible as well as explicable. This protracted war has devastated the US image
as the sole superpower during the last decade.
In this respect, Afghanistan proved much worse than Vietnam. In order to
get a face saving exit from the graveyard of empires, the US/NATO forces have
been desperately trying since the past two years to get a partial victory in
any part of Afghanistan. But now they are blaming Pakistan for their failure as
Af-Pak policy has failed as well. The US/NATO forces have no clear goal to win
a war. They are fighting on a hostile land, thousands of miles away from home
and have no primary goal in front of them. So the confusion and nervousness is
on the rise in the rank and file of the US/NATO troops.
Here
it must be understood that even if the US withdraws from Afghanistan in 2014,
the futuristic regional security scenario would be no less complicated and
challenging for Pakistan. Zionists’ interests in this region would be never
ended.
1.
Pak-US relations would continue to
deteriorate in coming months as interests of both the states are on a direct
collision course. Venomous media campaign and Psy-Ops against Pakistan army and
ISI would continue with vengeance.
2.
US would not attack Pakistan but can
launch multiple surgical strikes inside Pakistan on alleged terrorist hideouts.
Any such attack would mount tremendous internal pressure on Pakistan army to
respond these attacks.
3.
As Americans have failed to subdue
Taliban resistance in Afghanistan they would desperately try to convince
Taliban to be part of Kabul regime.
4.
Taliban and other resistance groups
would never bow down to Americans and they will not backtrack from their
principled demand of withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghan soil.
5.
The US would continue to pressurize
Islamabad over Haqqani Network and Quetta Shura. A direct clash between
Pakistan army and Afghan resistance group has been an old American desire. This
clash would put Pakistan army under more pressure and would create further ethnic
divide within the society.
6.
Despite all the sufferings and
menace created in the country by the Af-Pak strategy, Pakistan would be still
accused of not finishing Al-Qaeda sanctuaries in FATA area. The mantra of ‘Do
More’ would continue.
7.
US would leave the region unstable
as the last resort. They don’t have any intention to bring stability in the
region but would need a puppet regime in Kabul. An unstable Afghanistan would
be ideal place for Zionists assets to keep Pakistan under pressure in Western
theatre. A stable Afghanistan would eradicate the need of the US/NATO forces in
Afghanistan. This is something Zionists would never want. The US would like to
stabilize Afghanistan in literal sense only under her own terms and conditions
and this is not going to happen.
8.
India would be given a larger role
in Afghanistan. Recently signed strategic agreement between Kabul and New Delhi
is an expression of more Indian influence in Afghanistan in coming years. This
is not good news for Islamabad for sure!
9.
Drone attacks on Pakistan would
continue with renewed sense retribution. This is bound to bring more
tribulations for Pakistan’s national security and internal stability.
10.
US-India cooperation against
Pakistan and China would grow stronger. Indians have accepted the role assigned
to them in the region and they are satisfied with this arrangement for
foreseeable future.
11.
Despite an exceptional success by the Pakistan
army in Swat against the TTP insurgency, media perception is being created that
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons can fall into terrorists’ hands. This psy-op would
continue in absence of a firm national media policy.
12.
TTP would continue its war against
Pakistan. They have been pushed into Afghanistan by Pakistan army but US/NATO
and Afghan army are protecting and launching them against Pakistan.
13.
The battle for dominance of Indian
Ocean would also enter into next phase as Indians have decided to venture in
turbulent waters of South China Sea to deter String of Perl strategy of China.
14.
India would achieve operational
readiness of CSD in next 5-7 years. It would put Pakistan under pressure to
build a response.
15.
Indian water aggression would cause
more damage to Pakistan than any military invasion.
Under
these precarious regional developments in near future, Pakistan would not able
afford to be part of this so-called war against terrorism. Current internal and
foreign policies need urgent review in context of these developments. Right
now, there are too many weak spots in these policies. Mere tactical COIN operations
and administrative law and order measures would not exonerate Pakistan from
prevailing security nightmare. Realization of a clear and present threat from
Western border by political and military leadership is a positive sign but the
scenario demands more than threat perception. It also demands the realization
that Pakistan’s failure is not at strategic or tactical level rather it is a
policy level failure.
Way Forward
In 1990’s Pakistan took a u-turn on Afghan policy of Zia regime and
lost Northern Afghan Mujahideen as allies and created an ethnic fragmentation
among Afghan resistance groups of 1980’s; in 2001, we changed that policy as
well and lost a friendly government in Kabul and now, in 2011, Pakistan is
being asked to take another policy level turn which would turn entire current
Afghan resistance hostile towards Pakistan. This explains the prevailing US
pressure on Pakistan army to act against Haqqani network. Pakistan’s current
Afghan policy do needs a U-turn but one in line with our own interests in
Afghanistan and region. What Americans want us to do, must not be our problem
or obstacle to our own policy planning.
The prevailing security crisis demands a collective security
arrangement on the regional basis. To achieve this Pakistan will have to bring
about decisive changes in its foreign policy and diplomatic posturing.
·
Pakistan must end her role in the
American WoT and continue its own war against foreign funded insurgencies and
terrorism. Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network must not be our concern.
·
It is time to block NATO supply
lines on permanent basis. Recent war threats by the US officials and policy
makers must be responded firmly and must be put to an end.
·
The US must be enlisted in perceived
threats to national security and strategic assets just like India. Pakistani
military leadership will have to rethink and redraw the whole national security
and defense doctrine with US as potential threat to national security.
·
There must be a decisive policy
shift on the geopolitical level to get out of MNNA status and diplomatic
efforts must commence to make Pakistan go into SCO. The Chinese appeal of
regional security setup must be responded to unequivocally. Not only that, but
Pakistan must build a joint diplomatic front asking the US to leave
Afghanistan. This military presence of the US is the root cause of militancy and
extremism in Pakistan.
·
The US drone attacks against
innocent tribesmen simply have no legal mandate for these attacks. Pakistan
must mobilize its foreign office to seek an end to this illicit war inside
Pakistan.
·
Current tense diplomatic and military
relations between Islamabad and Washington call for rethinking and revisiting
Pak-US relations. In the recent briefing to the parliament it has been made
clear that the military leadership is willing to accept any foreign policy
adopted by the civilian government.
Pakistan in a strong position to defy American demands and Pakistan
army has demonstrated it at number of times when it refused to launch any
operation against Afghan resistance groups. Pakistan always had option to
withdraw herself from American war but corrupt and compromised government in
Islamabad never felt the need to feel public pulse on the national security
matters as they were installed by the CIA just to bow to American demands. But
recent war threats from the various US departments, politicians and policy
makers have put Zardari regime under an uncomfortable position. The US is
asking to ‘do more’ but Pakistan army and ISI have a nationalistic stance on
national defense forcing current government to play patriot card. Recently held
APC and weak response was a face saving exercise of current government. This
regime has proven to be a part of the problem rather being its solution. PPP
leaders have declared each other security threat. Pakistan army has its hands
full with other critical security issues both on Eastern and Western borders.
Last
35 years history of Pakistan’s Afghan policy depicts many inconsistencies and
contradictions. Every time Pakistan was on receiving end. But ironically still
there is no permanent Afghan policy is there which could salvage some sympathy
from various warring factions of Afghanistan so that Pakistan can play its
critical role in establishing a multi-ethnic broad based friendly government in
Kabul. It is time to correct historical mistakes before it gets too late.
Pakistan has no other option. Pakistan will have to bring about a comprehensive
policy shift regarding its strategy in Afghanistan. It will have to be done for
Pakistan own sake and time to act is NOW!!
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