Pakistan's S-20 Submarine Deal: Is It Enough to Restore Maritime Balance of Power?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

On 23rd July 2015, Pakistan took a big step forward in order to strengthen the  

According to media reports Pakistan will buy 8 Chinese made S-20 conventional attack submarines in a multi-billion dollar deal that will boost Pakistani navy's subsurface capabilities.

Sources claimed that an agreement was reached here during a meeting between Pakistani finance minister Ishaq Dar and Xu Ziqin, president of state-owned China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Company Limited (SCOC) which is the trade arm of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation. The reports of submarines deal was in the air since the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan in April and now it looks like that a considerable progress has been made.

Final approval of the deal is subject to a high level review in Beijing and a formal agreement would signed afterwards. Pakistan would make payments in four installments and the delivery of the vessels would commence in coming years.

"Financial arrangements to this effect were also concluded," it added indicating that both the parties have agreed on the most concerning part of the deal as far as Pakistan is concerned.

The statement issued by Finance ministry quoted Mr. Xu thanking Ishaq Dar for his contribution in concluding the arrangements, saying it was reflective of the "deep-rooted" China-Pakistan friendship.

It was reported then that the contract could be worth US$ 4-5 billions making it  the biggest arms export deal for Communist China and Pakistan Navy as well.

Pakistan has been negotiating the purchase of submarines from China since 2011. No details were, however, given about the type of the submarines. But there have been reports that Yuan-class Type-041 diesel-electric submarines were being considered.

S-20:

First unveiled during IDEX 2013, the international defense exhibition held in the United Arab Emirates, S-20 was introduced as not merely for domestic demand but also for export on international market.

Though is is based on Type 041 Yuan class, there are clear differences between these two. S-20 is essentially an export version of Type -041.  S-20’s length is 66 meters against 73-75 meters of Type 041. But this is most probably due to the fact the S-20 comes without AIP module of Type-041 which can easily integrated if a customer requires thanks to modular design of S-20. Pakistani S-20 will come with AIP system installed. Similarly, surface displacement (1,850 tons) and submerged displacement (2,300 tons) are considerably less than Yuan's surface displacement. Maximum speed is also a bit slow at 18 knots against 20 Knots of Yuan while the cruise speed is similar to Yuan at 16 knots, range is 8,000 nautical miles at 16 knots, endurance is 60 days. Crew is one area where S-20 looks better than Yuan as it has a crew of 38 versus 58 for the Yuan. 

Despite these specifications, S-20 promises solid performance as a sub-surface combat naval platform. It is double hulled with maximum submerging depth of 300 meters. It is equipped with variable frequency hydro-phonic detection device and towed sonar. Non details are available regarding weapons on board but understandably its weapon package would include heavy torpedoes and anti-ship missiles from six torpedo tubes and deploy mines and special forces. 

S-20 Deal And Assessment of Pakistan's Maritime Security Challenges:

For Pakistan Navy, the threat matrix is multi-dimensional. Indian Navy is gearing to become a Blue Water Navy. Apart from air craft carriers, IN is inducting medium to heavy guided missile destroyers. Security & Threat Matrix has done a detailed analysis of IN surface fleet here. To give the readers a clear idea, a brief extract is being reproduced here.

"Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).

As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014." 

Keeping in mind these IN projects, (which are not limited to these guided missile destroyers but also include procurement of more Scropene class subs from France) it is only prudent to ask if S-20 is enough to restore maritime balance of power which has dangerously tilted in Indian favor? It might be said that India is pursuing blue water navy dream to counter China as a partner of the US in Washington's Asia-Pacific Pivot strategy and her preparations are not targeted against Pakistani maritime interest. But in reality is bitter revenge of South Asia's geography that Pakistan cannot stay unaffected by the ongoing strategic maritime power projection competition Indian Ocean between China and, US and her allies.

Keeping in mind the sheer size of future Indian surface fleet and weapons and sensor system on board, it is obvious that Pakistan must reconsider the number of S-20. Pakistan currently has only 3 conventional attack submarines (Augosta 90-B) which can pose some threat to IN assets during a conflict. 

Pakistan needs to establish a submarine force of more than 20 ships along minimum 4 medium weight (5000-7000 Tons) guided missile destroyer armed with naval version of Babur cruise missile. Induction of CM-400AK in PAF, is not enough particularly when IN vessels will be armed with medium range Barak-8 SAM, jointly developed with Israel. Induction of this SAM system is another obvious proof that IN is moving towards becoming a Blue Water Navy. 

The seawards threats posed by IN must be mitigated by enhancement of PN in all departments (surface, sub surface and air). Relying on a single platform would certainly jeopardize the entire national defense. The most critical factor is time. The longer national leadership would take to assess these threats harder it will be to deter them. Time to act is NOW!