Nepal, Earthquakes and Movement of Indian Tectonic plate

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Indian subcontinent is located on a massive tectonic plate (known as "Indian Plate). It is today part of the major Indo-Australian Plate, and includes most of South Asia – i.e., the Indian subcontinent – and a portion of the basin under the Indian Ocean, including parts of South China and Eastern Indonesia, and extending up to but not including Ladakh, Kohistan and Balochistan

Due to its lesser thickness than the other tectonic plates, the Indian plate is moving towards North much faster and is in collision with the Eursian plate causing jolts, quakes and shocks. The Indian Plate is currently moving north-east at 5 centimetres (2.0 in) per year, while the Eurasian Plate is moving north at only 2 centimetres (0.79 in) per year. This is causing the Eurasian Plate to deform, and the Indian Plate to compress at a rate of 4 millimetres (0.16 in) per year. As its collision against much heavier Eurasian tectonic plate gain more momentum, the frequency of earth quakes caused by this collision is also on the rise. with  Indian subcontinent has suffered two major and numerous earthquakes due to this collision of tectonic plates. Kashmir earthquakes (2005) and Nepal quake( 2015) have claimed lives of more than 80,000 so far. The assessment of damages Nepal quake is still being done and fear is that current number of casualties (2000) would increase considerably once the damage assessment come to end.    

The collision of Indian plate with the Eurasian Plate along the boundary between India and Nepal formed the orogenic belt that created the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya Mountains, as sediment bunched up like earth before a plow. This is why Nepal is such a delicate geography. No one can predict the timing of natural calamity like the 8.1 magnitude earthquake. This unpredictability is not so unpredictable considering the fact that the movement of Indian tectonic plate is a well known phenomenon by now. Doing nothing and praying that mother nature will not hurt us will not be a wise move. After recent devastation in Nepal, contemplating means to minimize the damage done by the movement and collision of tectonic plates becomes a duty to encourage providence.   

8.1 scale Nepal Earthquakes and radius of its aftershocks

Natural calamities are very hard to fight against, but with a consistent efforts and cooperation, the damages can be minimize and this is what is the focus of all these recommendations.      

Increasing frequency of such natural calamities in states located on Indian tectonic plate, particularly the Indian sub-continent, demands a revisit their disaster response strategies ASAP. These states must raise special relief corps within their National armies to carry out initial reconnaissance, damage assessment, relief, search, evacuate and rescue operations in a systematic and coordinated manner. The sheer scale of earthquake in Nepal and one that Pakistan suffered in 2005 could not be overcome by any civilian institution due to obvious operational constraints. Only military aviation and national surveillance capabilities can come in handy in the aftermaths of such natural catastrophes. 

2005 - Earthquake in Pakistan turned Azad Kashmir into pile of ruble

Apart from that, it is also highly recommended that these states also devise a national curricula for youth specifically designed for civil defense and emergency relief works. This is a must task in order to make the younger lots aware of traumatizing impact of such a natural calamity.

Last but not the least, a high level scientific multilateral commission is also required to study the tectonic movement and to suggest necessary relocation of populations from more dangerous zones located on geographical fault lines.

Rafale or PAK-FA? Debate on Future of Indian Air Force

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

As India and France have been working on MRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets, Indian PM has announced a separate deal of 36 Rafale jets which will be delivered in fly away conditions as soon as possible. This deal would accelerate the modernization of IAF fleet. Along with this deal, if MRCA deals goes through Indian Air Force would have 160+ Rafale fighters in its fleet in the next decade.

According to Indian defense minister Manohar Parrikar, these Rafale fighters would be inducted into IAF within next two years making it clear that this off-the-shelf deal is part of Indian plans to immediately provide IAF two squadrons of state of the art fighters that it desperately need to upgrade its aging fleet. Commenting on this new deal, Dassault CEO, Eric Trappier maintained that there was a  real operational need because India needs combat jets to counter modernization of certain countries hinting towards modernization programs of PLAAF and PAF. China and Pakistan.

But there is a bigger debate going on within Indian defense and strategic community about the future of IAF as it was reported by IHS Janes earlier this week.

"The central difficulty is what analysts in India described to IHS Jane's as a "massive disconnect between the Ministry of Defence [MoD], the IAF, and the political community in India who have to contend with larger diplomatic and industrial issues" on what the future IAF should look like"

According to Janes, the conflict revolves around the views of those who favors Rafale and those who consider Russian T-50/PAK-FA 5th generation fighter. This conflict is part of larger debate regarding the future outlook of Indian front line fighter fleet. IAF is inclined towards more Western platforms but not the US made platforms, describes Janes' report. Apart from this difference of views on future orientation of IAF, financial constraints are also remains important dynamics affecting the overall debate on choosing French or Russian fighter planes.

"If you put your resources into the T-50, then the IAF becomes an almost all-Russian fleet, and you are betting your future force structure on an aeroplane that is almost solely on paper at present. If you decide to go with the Rafale, then you are forgetting about having a fifth-generation aeroplane, but at least you know everything on this platform exists and works pretty much as advertised," Janes quoted an unnamed Indian defense analyst.

It is obvious, that if IAF is not looking for F-35 from the US the PAK-FA program is there and IAF would pursue it for its 5th Gen fighter requirements. India may ended up with slashing MRCA altogether and settled for deal of 36 Rafale while diverting resources to PAK-FA. Though, PAK-FA is still in early phase of development unlike Rafale which enetered in operational service with French air force years ago but this is the only 5th generation joint venture which India can be part of, France does not has any 5th generation fighter development project as advanced as PAK-FA.

Although now many Indian experts are casting doubts on the future of MRCA citing the alleged French refusal for transfer of technology but considering the current procurement trends, it would be prudent to consider a future IAF fleet comprises on US made transporters (C-130, C-17), French and Russian 4++ generation fighters (Rafale. SU-30MKI) and Russian 5th generation fighters (PAK-FA), while Israel providing AWACS platforms.

   

India's quest for Permanent UNSC Membership Amid Fluid South Asian Geopolitics

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

"We have made considerable progress in establishing and expanding defence contacts and exchanges, including across our borders. We contribute to the maintenance of peace and tranquility - a pre-requisite for the further development of our relationship - and on the boundary question, my government is committed to exploring an early settlement."

This was stated by Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj as she winds up her four days trip to Beijing where she interacted with her Russian and Chinese counter parts and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit was a critical development in the backdrop of the US President Obama's recent visit to India in which both the nations vows to form a strategic partnership in Asia-Pacific in which India is ought to play a major role not only in the region but also at global level. Primarily, the visit was aimed to secure the Chinese and Russian support for Indian bid for a permanent seat in UNSC. Other obvious objective was to preparing grounds for Indian Prime Minister's upcoming visit of Beijing in May later this year.

ANALYSIS:

As far as the primary objective is concerned, there has no substantial development. Chinese are really concerned about new upswing in Indo - US relations particularly the Indian role in Pacific rim of Indian Ocean. Other than that, Indian permanent seat in the UN would also reduce Chinese political influence in the global and regional affairs and that is something not acceptable to Beijing.

Swaraj, during her visit, highlighted areas like economics, trade, tourism, infrastructural developments as way forward to boost bilateral ties. But these issues are trivial in nature and have limited implications for the both when viewed from strategic vantage point and this is what 13th joint communique released at the end of trilateral meeting of foreign ministers of India, China and Russia. "Foreign Ministers of China and Russia reiterated the importance they attached to the status of India in international affairs and supported its aspiration to play a greater role in the United Nations." This was the only reference made to the Indian efforts to secure UNSC permanent mandate and it was exactly the same what was stated in the 12th joint communique released last year. Evidently, there have been no concrete progress on this account and owing the fluid regional geopolitics, Chinese will remain very cautious about a veto power India.

It is notice worthy that Chinese foreign minister will be visiting Pakistan on 12th of this month to finalize the upcoming visit of Chinese President Xi jinping that is expected in March this year.

RIC & Global Politics:

The visit and the subsequent meetings and the release of communique at the end of this RIC foreign ministers summit, despite no major development on Indian quest for permanent UNSC seat,  is an important event amid complex geopolitics in South Asia and Asia Pacific regions where India is looking to to play a more assertive role. Being world's largest market, India has become strategically attractive to US, China and Russia. China has emerged a powerful global players in the last ten years and Russia has certainly shown resurgence on global political affairs. China and Russia, both these permanent members of UNSC want UN reforms but not with India being a permanent member state and strategic partner of the US simultaneously. On the other hand, India holds the key for the US to maintain its political and military dominance in the region due to India's geography and close proximity to the Indian Ocean, vast population and one of the world's longest coastlines. With this profile, the fast changing geopolitics has placed India in a position to bargain with all three permanent members of UNSC to secure her strategic interests. Modi government is fully aware of this strategic importance of India and this explains Delhi's very aggressive and exertive foreign policy in the region. But, this foreign policy is about to hit a crossroad where Modi will have to make some harsh choices which can reshape the regional geopolitics and Indian role in it as well. India will have to address Chinese and Russian concerns over American overtures in the region and Indian role in them as a strategic partner particularly Washington's Asian Pivot strategy for 21st century which is going to marginalize the Chinese growing military and economic influence in Asia-Pacific, South Asia and Indian Ocean. 

Washington's policy aims to achieve the similar strategic results with India as it got with Japan and South Korea after World War II. The US is poised to have military footprint in India just like she established in Japan and South Korea. In Beijing, this US strategy is being perceived as an attempt of strategic encirclement of China and reaction is manifestation of  Beijing's won plans like 'String of Perl' New Silk Route,and Pak-China Economic Corridor etc. But in the long run, China will take a very cautious discourse in responding joint Indo-US strategic partnership and letting India go completely in the US camp is not an option for Beijing as well at least not now when China is fully focus on South China Sea. This is why, China wants more engagements with India on trade and business along with other measures of mutual trusts. But how long this Chinese strategy of engagement will work depends upon the various factors which are beyond Beijing's control like India's own ambitions to make Indian Ocean completely "India's Ocean", Indian participation in anti-China Quadrilateral alliance in Asia-Pacific, Indian permission to the US to use Indian military installations, Indian Navy's role in South China Sea as the US partner, Indian aggressive policy in Thailand, escalation of border disputes etc. All these developments are going to decide the outcome of regional geopolitics.

Amid this compounded regional scenario, it will be a daunting challenge for Modi to secure Chinese support on matters such as seeking a permanent UNSC seat. There are too many variables. Even Russian support Indian aspirations in the region but only as a RIC partner not the way Washington envisions India's greater role in the region. It was perceptibly expressed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at ministerial meeting as he reaffirmed the role of the three countries ' as a key factor in international politics' in a complex period for the world. 

There has been a general agreement since long that 21st century is going to be Asia's century and the prevailing fluid geopolitical landscape of South Asia explains why!

   
  

  

     

US military bases in India: Emergence of New Strategic Order in Asia

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

US President Obama has begun his 3 days official visit to India today. The visit is considered a significant one as  President Obama will be the first ever US president invited as chief guest on annual Indian Republican Day parade in Delhi on 26th January. It is expected that growing strategic partnership between the two states would enter in next phase through a series  of strategic agreements in field of defense, nuclear cooperation, security, diplomacy and trade. President Obama has already declared India as a strategic partner in his Asian Pivot strategy.

It is being reported that,during this visit,in response to a US proposal, India is to throw open its military,air and naval bases to the US which means that the US will have permanent military footstep in India as well. This deal is certainly going to change the strategic equation in Asia. It is believed that in return to this offer India would be able to use the US military communication setup in Indian Ocean along with other . But, the most significant clause, being reported, is related to joint security pact between the two states where India would also get US to fight alongside it in case of a war. Considering the Indian doctrine of "Two Front War" (a response to threat which stems from strategic partnership between Islamabad and Beijing), this deal is ought to be the counter-balance strategic equation among the Asian nuclear states where two out of three, are perceived to have an undeclared alliance against the third (India). Now after the inclusion of world's only super power in this equation, the strategic balance of power hangs in middle.

This is not the first time when such a proposal has been moved by the US. Last such attempt was made during the previous Indian regime of congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and it was shot down by allies then. Defence Minister Antony too had vetoed it saying that it would compromise security of India. These clauses would come under the renewal of Defence pact signed in 2005. Under this pact, US had supplied India around $10 billion worth of arms. Now as the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has replaced the government in Delhi, officials of both the states are hopeful that this new agreement would be reached eventually during the current visit of President Obama.

Apart from giving the US military access to bases of Indian forces, this proposed agreement would enable the US to have direct access to India's secured communication network. This access will enable the pentagon and other US bodies to have eyes and ears within India as well. In return, India would have access to the high-tech military hardware and active military  support of the US in event of war. 

The advantage, the NDA defence ministry argues, is that in turn Indian ships can get real time information through the US networks which is not possible today. According to the NDA's defense ministry, these agreements -known as "Foundational Agreements", are just the formal announcement for the cooperation which is already there and an arrangement that is already 'operational'. These agreements include the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement, the Logistics Support Agreement and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for geo-spatial cooperation.It points out that Indian ships in Gulf waters do refuel from US ships in sea and neither countries have objected. Now that US has shifted base to Asia, India is seen as a partner by US.

Indian response was promising for the US as Prime Minister Modi had instructed his defence minister to finalize the paperwork before Obama’s visit indicating Delhi's willingness for opening new vistas of strategic bilateral cooperation with the US.

ANALYSIS:

This new proposed strategic cooperation deal is a significant development in the region and is going to change the strategic scenario in Asia. But the implications of this agreement would be global.

1. This agreement would be perceived by Islamabad as a new strategic partnership against national security interests of Pakistan. Pakistan already has grave concerns over Indian presence in Afghanistan. 
2. This agreement would be a key development against Chinese strategic interests as well. Though it is not clear yet which bases India would allow the US to utilize, but to Beijing, it would be part of existing US encirclement strategy against China. 
3. US already has massive military presence in the East and South East of China (i.e. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea) now with this strategic partnership would establish the US military footprint in South of China as well. It is worth-noticing fact that the US forces are already there in Afghanistan which border China from West.
4. It would be interesting to see how Moscow reacts over this new development. But one fact is certain that this strategic partnership would put India's so-called Non-Alignment stance to an end.
5. The ongoing strategic maritime competition for dominance over Indian Ocean between China and US led alliance of India,Japan and Australia  would intensify further. Smaller players like Pakistan and Sri Lanka are bound to play significant role due to their geographical proximity to India.   
6. As for as Pakistan is concerned, this partnership between India and the US necessitates a similar long term strategic arrangement between China and Pakistan. Pakistan foreign policy must seek overtures to bring about a balance in Islamabad's relations with the US and Russia as well.
7. Political change in Sri Lanka is also a significant development in context of overall emerging strategic order in the region. Sir Lanka has expelled RAW's station chief in Colombo for alleged involvement in ouster of pro-China Rajapaksa regime in recent election. Against Indian wishes, new Sri Lankan government has not changed pro-China policy of previous government due to which India felt that it was time to seek the US military support to counter Chinese maritime strategy around India. In this backdrop, Sri Lankan geography would continue to hold a significant strategic value in the region.
8. Sri Lanka is also vital for the native American interests as well. Chinese naval out reach in Indian Ocean has raised eyebrows in Pentagon and the US Navy which consider the Chinese moves to build naval bases in Sri Lanka as a hostile move. The strategic Naval base of the US in Deago Garcia is located South of Sri Lanka.

All these potential factor establish the fact that a new Asian strategic order is going to take shape in coming months in which the US would assert itself through military partnership and diplomatic outreach to increase the influence in the regional geopolitics. This is what the US envisioned in her Asia-Pivot policy. Indo- US strategic partnership framework is vital prong of this strategy which is primarily designed to encircle and contain China.

What Pakistan Navy required the most?

Keeping in view the dynamic security situation in the region and balance of maritime power projection capabilities in Arabian Sea, What you think Pakistan Navy needs urgently the most?

  

Siachen:The Geopolitics and Strategy in Frozen Battlefield

Shahzad Masood Roomi

Aftermath of Gyari Tragedy:

The tragic incident of 7^th April avalanche that hit the battalion HQ of 6NLI battalion of Pakistan Army in Gyari sector of Siachen trapping 139 Pakistani troops and civilians has traumatized the entire nation. Pakistan Army is desperately trying to reach the trapped persons under the 80 feet high and one square kilometer wide pile of rubble, rock, snow and ice in a rescue operation in an unforgiving weather and constant snow falling at a height of 14,000 feet from sea level.  The incident was the worst catastrophe since 1984 when India illegally occupied Siachen glacier and Saltoro ridge to its southwest.