India's quest for Permanent UNSC Membership Amid Fluid South Asian Geopolitics

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

"We have made considerable progress in establishing and expanding defence contacts and exchanges, including across our borders. We contribute to the maintenance of peace and tranquility - a pre-requisite for the further development of our relationship - and on the boundary question, my government is committed to exploring an early settlement."

This was stated by Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj as she winds up her four days trip to Beijing where she interacted with her Russian and Chinese counter parts and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit was a critical development in the backdrop of the US President Obama's recent visit to India in which both the nations vows to form a strategic partnership in Asia-Pacific in which India is ought to play a major role not only in the region but also at global level. Primarily, the visit was aimed to secure the Chinese and Russian support for Indian bid for a permanent seat in UNSC. Other obvious objective was to preparing grounds for Indian Prime Minister's upcoming visit of Beijing in May later this year.

ANALYSIS:

As far as the primary objective is concerned, there has no substantial development. Chinese are really concerned about new upswing in Indo - US relations particularly the Indian role in Pacific rim of Indian Ocean. Other than that, Indian permanent seat in the UN would also reduce Chinese political influence in the global and regional affairs and that is something not acceptable to Beijing.

Swaraj, during her visit, highlighted areas like economics, trade, tourism, infrastructural developments as way forward to boost bilateral ties. But these issues are trivial in nature and have limited implications for the both when viewed from strategic vantage point and this is what 13th joint communique released at the end of trilateral meeting of foreign ministers of India, China and Russia. "Foreign Ministers of China and Russia reiterated the importance they attached to the status of India in international affairs and supported its aspiration to play a greater role in the United Nations." This was the only reference made to the Indian efforts to secure UNSC permanent mandate and it was exactly the same what was stated in the 12th joint communique released last year. Evidently, there have been no concrete progress on this account and owing the fluid regional geopolitics, Chinese will remain very cautious about a veto power India.

It is notice worthy that Chinese foreign minister will be visiting Pakistan on 12th of this month to finalize the upcoming visit of Chinese President Xi jinping that is expected in March this year.

RIC & Global Politics:

The visit and the subsequent meetings and the release of communique at the end of this RIC foreign ministers summit, despite no major development on Indian quest for permanent UNSC seat,  is an important event amid complex geopolitics in South Asia and Asia Pacific regions where India is looking to to play a more assertive role. Being world's largest market, India has become strategically attractive to US, China and Russia. China has emerged a powerful global players in the last ten years and Russia has certainly shown resurgence on global political affairs. China and Russia, both these permanent members of UNSC want UN reforms but not with India being a permanent member state and strategic partner of the US simultaneously. On the other hand, India holds the key for the US to maintain its political and military dominance in the region due to India's geography and close proximity to the Indian Ocean, vast population and one of the world's longest coastlines. With this profile, the fast changing geopolitics has placed India in a position to bargain with all three permanent members of UNSC to secure her strategic interests. Modi government is fully aware of this strategic importance of India and this explains Delhi's very aggressive and exertive foreign policy in the region. But, this foreign policy is about to hit a crossroad where Modi will have to make some harsh choices which can reshape the regional geopolitics and Indian role in it as well. India will have to address Chinese and Russian concerns over American overtures in the region and Indian role in them as a strategic partner particularly Washington's Asian Pivot strategy for 21st century which is going to marginalize the Chinese growing military and economic influence in Asia-Pacific, South Asia and Indian Ocean. 

Washington's policy aims to achieve the similar strategic results with India as it got with Japan and South Korea after World War II. The US is poised to have military footprint in India just like she established in Japan and South Korea. In Beijing, this US strategy is being perceived as an attempt of strategic encirclement of China and reaction is manifestation of  Beijing's won plans like 'String of Perl' New Silk Route,and Pak-China Economic Corridor etc. But in the long run, China will take a very cautious discourse in responding joint Indo-US strategic partnership and letting India go completely in the US camp is not an option for Beijing as well at least not now when China is fully focus on South China Sea. This is why, China wants more engagements with India on trade and business along with other measures of mutual trusts. But how long this Chinese strategy of engagement will work depends upon the various factors which are beyond Beijing's control like India's own ambitions to make Indian Ocean completely "India's Ocean", Indian participation in anti-China Quadrilateral alliance in Asia-Pacific, Indian permission to the US to use Indian military installations, Indian Navy's role in South China Sea as the US partner, Indian aggressive policy in Thailand, escalation of border disputes etc. All these developments are going to decide the outcome of regional geopolitics.

Amid this compounded regional scenario, it will be a daunting challenge for Modi to secure Chinese support on matters such as seeking a permanent UNSC seat. There are too many variables. Even Russian support Indian aspirations in the region but only as a RIC partner not the way Washington envisions India's greater role in the region. It was perceptibly expressed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at ministerial meeting as he reaffirmed the role of the three countries ' as a key factor in international politics' in a complex period for the world. 

There has been a general agreement since long that 21st century is going to be Asia's century and the prevailing fluid geopolitical landscape of South Asia explains why!