Sunday, June 19, 2016

Inching Towards Showdown


By Tariq Niaz Bhatti



Recent elimination of Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, Amir of Afghan Taliban in a Drone strike speaks of US administration frustration in the ongoing protracted war in Afghanistan. Reportedly it was daylight Drone attack but a close look at the scattered evidence on the site of incident, tells a different story, a mismatch to the official version. But alleged drone strike vindicates the US unilateralism; the reluctance to be bound by rules made for others. The New World Order and its enforcement requires Imperial US power to be used to secure economic, political and military gains and ward off security threat to its economic and military interests all over the globe. Hence, the US forces are found operating in Syria and Iraq to recapture the areas lost to self-proclaimed Jihadist groups like ISIS and are planning to send troops in Libya to stabilize the security situation there.


In the recent years US has shifted its pivot from Middle East to South Asia and has further energized her Asia pacific maritime forces with state of the art Littoral Combat Ships now based in Singapore. Its aggressive naval and air patrolling in the disputed waters of South China Sea challenging China over its sovereign maritime claims, regularly prompts Chinese condemnation and show of force both in air and sea. The US is on its way to install missile defense shield in the Eastern European countries of defunct Communist block on the pretext of intercepting the Russian or Iranian missile attacking Europe or mainland USA. US has plans to lift embargo on sales of lethal weapons to Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines all party to Nine Dot Line dispute with China in South China Sea. On 27th May 2016, the US and its NATO allies have kick started exercise Saber Strike which will have 4000 troops from NATO allies to arrive in Baltics and 10,000 troops from Eastern European countries to join in the US led exercise Dragon Ride. Its significance has been elevated in recent years as it is one of the main shows of collective force in the vicinity of Russia and Ukraine.   

US led NATO’s recent war preparations in Eastern Europe, a chilling scenario of encirclement against Russia, stem from its fears of Russians annexing Crimea in the recent past through which, to NATO, Russia has effectively terminated the 1997 NATO-Russia Agreement. President Obama is committed to the view that Russia is by far the world’s most aggressive enemy, more so even than the international Jihadists are. Russian fears that the US is deploying nuclear capable missiles defense shield in Georgia only to expose its southwestern flank. The move has prompted President Putin to further harden his stance on annexation of Crimea and Ukrainian interference in the Donbass region.

President Obama visited three key South Asian States, party to the South China Sea maritime dispute, before his visit to Japan to attend G-7 Summit on 27th May 2016.  In a joint statement Group of Seven industrial powers pledged to seek strong global growth while papering over differences on currencies and stimulus policies and expressing concern over North Korea, Russia and maritime disputes involving China. Moreover, the signing of Trans Pacific Partnership in February this year, a free trade agreement amongst mostly the Pacific Rim allies of the US, deliberately excludes China meant only to balance the trade dominance of both China and India in East Asia. The agreement in addition to free trade will give US the excuse to intervene in trade disputes amongst countries bordering the oil rich South China Sea.

The end of cold war has helped revive two deep rooted attitudes of the Imperial US towards the rest of the world: Unilateralism and Universalism! This gives the US the authority to intervene militarily in any country of the world which seems to endanger its economic political or military interests. This imperial outlook stems from element of its power which include over 700 bases in 130 countries with more than 250,000 uniformed persons serving overseas in huge regional commands. This all is beefed up with fifty four nuclear submarines and twelve air craft carriers, twelve helicopter carriers and a huge fleet of support vessels to complete its global command of the seas. In economy, the US accounted nearly one third of world’s gross production in 1999 and wields enormous soft power. The striking feature of all this US power is that much of the energy that fuels American Imperial expansion is unofficial and private i.e. means it comes from its privately owned multinational corporations which are highly innovative and are operating globally.  Some of big names are General Dynamics, Exxon Mobil, IBM etc. These multi nationals are bound by US laws in their international dealings specially related to defense matters impacting US international strategy.   

A cursory look at the history of empires of the past shows that all such empires were subject to great stress and strains, spasm of crisis and an ultimate fall. In the emerging scenario the causes like any disproval of public opinion in the US due to rising military casualties and resultant rising taxation, emerging and rapidly popularizing jihadist ideology in response to US interventions discrediting its moral and political legitimacy as global power, US imperial obesity a drain on its physical strength and a temptation to rivals like Russia and China and last but not the least moving away of material wealth and technical prowess from US to more favored locations gains added significance. 

It seems that major world powers are being driven towards wars of mutual destruction in pursuit of limited ends. The present US Imperial structure has turned into a semi private domain structured to serve sectional interests of large private multinational corporations. Most of the global military adventures of Imperial US are geared to protect and promote the economic interests of grand coalition of these corporations, the status quo. The lack of desired adjustment to domestic and external pressure, a major cause of US unilateralism may prove fatal to the empire in times to come. US unilateralism, its efforts to make new economic and military alliance against Russia and China all points towards protecting the status quo at the cost of world peace. World powers heading towards a showdown like world war III in near or little far future is fast becoming a chilling reality.

About Author:
Author is a freelance writer. He gained firsthand experience in security and counterterrorism and is expert in this domain with years of professional experience. He mostly writes about security issues and counter terrorism challenges posed to the state of Pakistan.  He can be reached at niaz_tariq@yahoo.com


               

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