Putting Iran's Framework Deal in Context

Shahzad Masood Roomi


Finally, after months of negotiations between Iran and P5+1 countries, an agreement has been reached on Tehran's nuclear program and its future. The deal has been praised by every state as it will pave the way for Iran to end its isolation in international community and on the other hand, Iran's nuclear program will come under IAEA inspection. Under the deal, Iran will also reduce its uranium enrichment capacity for a time period of 10-15 years in exchange for phased sanctions relief. After the deal both parties would work for drafting the final agreement which is to be finalized by 30 June.

Iran has agreed to redesign of its heavy water plant at Arak (IR-40) as well so that it cannot produce weapon grade plutonium. The number of centrifuges installed will be reduced by two third and its stockpile of low-enriched uranium will be reduced as well.

ANALYSIS:

Strategically speaking, the framework deal between Iran and P5+1 is a big win for Iran in its long term implications and a defeat for Israel (if you are not getting me, please recall the address of Israeli PM to US congress in which he was telling the US to back off). In order to understand the broader contours of final deal (which BTW is NOT signed yet, only parameters of the framework have been agreed upon on which the final deal would be signed) in its correct context it must remain clear that as long as Iran is able to preserve its uranium enrichment right as signatory of NPT, it will be a win for Tehran and this is exactly what Iran has successfully managed to achieve in interim deal (signed in 2014) and in this 'framework' deal.

Next, this deal makes it clear that Iran is not going to rollback its nuclear program but has agreed to put it in low gear for a time span of 10-15 years. Now if someone is anxious about the aspect of this deal which is going to impede bomb making capability of Tehran, please keep in mind, Iran never intended to make a  bomb in the first place. (Fatwa given by their spiritual leader in this regard) ... But even if they want to build a bomb, it is clear that maximum this deal can do in this regard is to stall the enrichment capability for a decade (means this is not a roll back but slow down in their nuclear program) which is No time in any nation's age. Iran has successfully secured their entire nuclear program and phased off the sanctions which for years have affected Iran adversely. Inflation is sky high there due to very limited exports. But now, Iran will be able to export their oil and gas.

This agreement is a good news for Pakistan as well as international sanctions on Iran will be lifted allowing Pakistan and Iran to pursue Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. All the world monitory institutions would agree to extend the credit facility.

Lastly, it must be clear that 2016 is election year in the US, and after Yemen which President Obama declared his success story in war on terror is in complete chaos, Democrats would need one major global issue which they can sell to US public as success story during those elections. Who much this work, only time will tell. But for now, the world has reached on an agreement without going to war over it is a big achievement in itself.