India to Deploy Remote Controlled Guns on LoC

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Indian Army is going to deploy remote controlled guns on LoC. Though the weapons are still far from field deployment but these are being developed and tested.

This was revealed by General officer Commanding (GoC) of the 16 Corps of the Indian Army Lt Gen RR Nimbhorkar during a function held in Akhnoor.

“At the moment, they (new and modern weapons) are in the nascent stage... there are various up gradation and whether you call them remotely controlled (guns) or you can say up gradation of various technologies, they are in the nascent stage. But there are reports suggesting that these guns will make their debut in Indian Army on LoC by the year end.

“We are trying them and if they are successful we will deploy them.”

He also hinted that these remote controlled guns will be deployed under a well worked-out plan by Indian Army.

The locally-developed integrated machineguns employ infrared sensors radiating in a grid arrangement to produce IR beams to detect any movement. The system will able to detect any movement up to a distance of 80 metres ahead of the border fence – the distance between the fence and the LoC can vary from 50 metres to over 2km depending on the terrain.

“On the LoC, we have to be always evolving. There is no one methodology and equipment we put on the LoC. (Whenever) We find it needs to be changed, (we change it). We do innovation and that is the ongoing process,” Lt Gen Nimbhorkar said.

“So, in this process, there are things which we have thought off which we are practicing and when they are fully functional then we will deploy them” he added.

The IR sensors are linked to automatic guns mounted on rotors complemented with night-vision cameras providing live video stream to workstations, located in bunkers, running mapping software and manned by field commanders.

A buzzer is sounded if the grid is broken, rotating the weapon in the direction of the intrusion site. Video aid enables the commander to identify the intrusion and take action.

“If the target is visually identified as hostile, the observer simply presses a button to take it out,” said Brigadier PC Vyas who is implementing the remote-controlled weapons project.

But these plans of Indian Army to install remote-controlled weapons on LoC would require considerable time. Not only these technologies are in their nascent stages, Indian Army also lack proper firing range to test them and this was also hinted by Lt Gen Nimbhorkar as a problem Indian army is facing right now.

ANALYSIS:

Development, testing and deployment of any new weapon system is slow process and takes many years and firm dedication and financial support to induct hence require an early response as well. This is where such plans by India Army, though long way from execution, do demand some serious thinking by Pakistan as far as impact of such systems on the operational plans of Pakistan Army is concerned.

There can be number of considerations which pushed Indian Army to devise such an ambitious plan. Technological evolution in conventional weaponry viz-a-viz Pakistan has always remain at the center stage of Indian military’s strategic thinking.

But employment of such system must not be taken as a mere attempt by India to display her technological prowess. This plan, once implemented, would allow Indian Army to deploy additional firepower on LoC without any fear of retaliatory fire by Pakistan Army on these positions. Through such systems, Indian Army would able to field additional firepower as well.  

Has JF-17 Found Its Second Buyer at Dubai Air Show 2015?

Did PAC has win export contract from second buyer at Dubai Air Show 2015 as is being reported in the media after securing the first deal at International Paris Air Show earlier this year? 

Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC) and PAC signed the deal with an unidentified buyer at Dubai Air Show according to Chinese Daily but the identity of the buyer remains disclosed. Interestingly, the identity of the first buyer at International Paris Show was also not disclosed. This secrecy by both PAC and AVIC is making it impossible to confirm if this is a confirm second order or the previous deal is being discussed again by both Chinese and Pakistani experts. 

Liu Yu, deputy head of AVIC’s military aircraft trade wing highlighted the prospects of Thunder's export,  “Several potential buyers have expressed to us their strong intention of introducing the aircraft, and they have performed comprehensive assessments of the plane,” 

Pakistan Air Force officer dealing in sales and marketing, Air Marshal Khalid Mahmood said, “A contract has been signed with an Asian country.” However the name of the country was not disclosed and deliveries are likely to begin in 2017.

The JF-17 aircraft has previously participated in various air shows around the world, including Farnborough Air Show (in the UK), Zhuhai Air Show (China), Turkish Air Show (Turkey) and the Dubai Air Show (UAE).

Pakistan Army to Increase Its Numerical Strength

Shahzad Masood Roomi

Keeping in mind the precarious security situation on the western border, Pakistan has decided to increase the numerical strength of its ground forces. In this regard, Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) Kakul will increase the recruitment of its cadets who are trained and inducted in Pakistan Army as commissioned officers. The increase will be one third of current recruitment strength of PMA which is around 500 officers annually.

Chief of Army Staff, Gen Raheel Sharif visited PMA on Wednesday, earlier this week, and reviewed the progress  of PMA's capacity enhancement project.   

“The visit focused on reviewing the current training regime for cadets and PMA’s capacity enhancement projects including progress work on the 4th Pakistan Battalion,” read a statement issued by ISPR. 

Right now, PMA intakes 500 cadets each year in two batches who then divided into three battalions during the training. Now that strength would increase to around 650 as addition 150 cadets would make 4th battalion at PMA.

As the number of commissioned officers would increase after this decision it implies that number of troops would also increase proportionally.

No timeline was given for the setting up of the new battalion at PMA, but insiders say the academy could be ready for the increased intake within 12-18 months.

Apart from mounting threats of non-state violent actors from across the Afghan border there are other factors which necessitated the requirement of additional troops and increase in size of Pakistan Army. These includes continuing involvement in tribal areas, where troops are expected to stay at least till 2019; the creation of a security division for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor; and increased requirement of officers for paramilitary forces like Frontier Corps and Rangers. Additionally, troops are getting increasingly engaged with UN peacekeeping operations and disaster relief operations.Last and most importantly, Indian escalation along the LoC and aggressive posturing towards Pakistan also played its role.

The internal factors behind this increase in Army's size are more worrisome indicator of collapse of civilian law and order institutions and forcing Pakistan Army and paramilitary forces to police the cities. In Karachi and Baluchistan paramilitary forces are involved in complex urban operations and their disengagement from these areas seems less likely in foreseeable future. Similarly, Pakistan Army may have to remain in FATA beyond 2019 as the security profile of Afghanistan is getting bleaker with every passing day. Politicizing regular police force has created severe challenge for Pakistan Army which is already fighting a asymmetrical and distributed war amid growing regional tension with India. Pakistan will have to remain watchful in this regards as the plan to convert Pakistan Army into a glorify police force is well known agenda of hostile forces.   

Pakistan's Military Diplomacy in Action

Pakistan's military diplomacy came in action more vividly when COAS Pakistan Army Gen Raheel Sharif presented Pakistani case on terrorism and regional security in London.

According to ISPR, COAS General Raheel Sharif, IISS and House of Commons has an interaction regarding terrorism, security issues and other regional matters.  Speaking at the occasion, COAS  stated that the success of Op Zarb e Azb had discernible effect, to continue pursuing sleeper cells across country.

While speaking to the participants, he emphasized that "Our environment and context needs to be understood". He reiterated the resolve of eliminating terrorism. "Want to finish terrorists and their nurseries." Gen Raheel also express his desire that international community would help Pakistan. "I expect International community to play its part for regional peace too."

"While we are fighting various terrorist groups, no new entities can be allowed to emerge. Terrorism a global issue, warrants global response", COAS said hinting towards the transnational nature of modern terrorism which has wrecked havoc in Pakistan as well.

International terrorism runs a very well-connected financial networks to sustain their activities. On this international funding Gen. Raheel maintained that it is something where every country will have to play a role for long term success. "Funding of all terrorist organizations has to be checked by all for long term success. We are against use of proxies and won't allow it on our soil.", He said clearly hinting a departure from Pakistan's policy of 1990's for Afghanistan.

He also talked about CPEC project and said it will be a game changer  and would bring prosperity for the entire area. He also ensured the participants that Pakistan Army will do everything to make it success.

Wing Loong II: Latest Chinese Armed Drone

A new version of Chinese Wing Long high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) UCAV has emerged according to IHS Jane's website report.

This iteration of Chinese armed drone is closet to the American RQ-9 Predator drone but still it is far inferior to the latter one.

"While almost identical in size, their performance differs - most likely due to their respective engines. While the MQ-9 has a maximum speed of 482 km/h and can reach a maximum altitude of 50,000 ft (15,240 m), the WingLoong II has a maximum speed of 370 km/h and can reach an altitude of30,000 ft (9,000 m).

They also differ greatly in their external payload. The MQ-9 is credited with an external payload of 1,400 kg while the Wing Loong II can carry 480 kg.", Reported Jane's website report.

ANALYSIS:

Though inferior to its US counterpart, this Chinese drone is yet another indicator that now Chinese are deep in power projection capabilities and arms export competition with Americans and Russians. Already, China has become third largest exporter of arms in international market but unlike the US and Russia, its market share is very low. 5% against 31% of the US and 27% of Russia (according to

"TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFERS, 2014 " report released by SIPRI. the full report is accessible via following link).http://books.sipri.org/files/FS/SIPRIFS1503.pdf

Pakistan Has Second Strike Capability

(Dawn News) Former defence secretary retired Lt Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi has claimed that Pakistan possesses second strike capability against India.

He was speaking at a seminar at Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), an Islamabad-based think-tank that works on strategic issues.

The issue of second strike capability came up in the context of the conventional superiority enjoyed by India and the options for Pakistan.

The second strike provides a military the capability to hit back at an enemy in a situation where its land-based nuclear arsenal had been neutralized.

The former defence secretary said that despite the growing conventional imbalance, Pakistan had certain strengths including the nuclear parity with India and credible nuclear deterrence.

The nuclear deterrence, he said, had been augmented by the second strike capability, efficient delivery systems and effective command and control system.

He did not explain any specifics about the second strike capability, which could be sea, air or land based.

It is still unclear if Pakistan was any closer to the submarine based ‘assured second strike capability’ for stable deterrence, particularly at time when India has already made the moves towards it.

Discussing Pakistan’s second strike capability, President SVI Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema said that Pakistan had improved its second strike capability.

Pakistan’s second strike capability, Dr Cheema said, has been augmented by deployment of Hatf-VII/Baber nuclear capable cruise missile that is launchable from aircrafts and conventional submarines. It is further fortified by the deployment of Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad air launched cruise missile, he added.

Technically speaking, he maintained, the best mode of second strike capability is submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which neither India nor Pakistan have deployed as yet.

Security & Threat Matrix Comment:

"Though it is known fact since the establishment Naval Strategic Force Command (NSFC) in 2013 that Pakistan has been working on second strike capability, this is first time a former defense secretary has disclosed that it is not only there but is also being enhanced."

Increasing Accidents of Mi-17: Pakistan Army Needs a New Workhorse?

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Mi-17 helicopters have been backbone of Pakistan Army Aviation (PAA) since many years now. These machines have played a remarkable role in ongoing counter insurgency and counter terrorism operations. During natural calamities like floods and earthquakes these are priority option of Pakistan Army for search and rescue operations. 

But due to this workload of every kind, the fleet of PAA's Mi-17s is rusting fast and the accidents are on the rise. On 6th August, PAA suffered second major accident involving Mi-17 killing all 12 on board including pilots and paramedical team of Pakistan Army near Mansehra, in KPK province.

Earlier, on 8th May 2015, 8 people were killed  in an Mi-17 crash in Naltar in District Gilgit, including the ambassadors of Norway and the Philippines, as well as the spouses of the Indonesian and Malaysian ambassadors to Pakistan.

Apart from these two incidents, scores of troops have lost their lives.

On 3rd July 2006, in a terrible accident of Mi-17 crash, 26 Pakistan Army soldiers were killed.

On 11th July 2012, A Pakistan Army Mi-17 crashed in Sarkdu in which left 5 dead and 3 injured. Major Shoaib was injured in the incident and lost his life next day due to heavy burns on his body. 

Maj Shoaib Shaheed - Sakrdu 2012

It is evident that Pakistani Mi-17 have become older and rusty due to excessive operations during the last 10 years and Pakistan Army needs the replacement or up-gradation of Mi-17s. This is not going to be an easy undertaking as right now Pakistan Army is using approx. 100 of these Russian machines. Availability of Russian spare parts has remained a big issue as well due to heavy political clout of New Delhi in Moscow till recent past.
 

Political Dimensions:
The latest crash incident of Mi-17 in Mansehra has triggered a political debate in the country on Pak-US/West strategic partnership in war on terror in which Pakistan has played a key role being the front-line ally since 9/11.

Western alliance failed to provide Pakistan Army with the required hardware and technologies in this war due to which strong suspicions about the future of this partnership are being raised in Islamabad. It has been noticed within the strategic circles in the country that the US never supplied Pakistan with key components like attack helicopters and drones in this war due to which Pakistan Army had to suffer fatalities at a very high rate.

According to media reports, the US never considered Pakistan's demand for sophisticated technology for its COIN operations. Sources has confirmed that Pakistan had been requesting the US for new or leased helicopters and transfer of drone technology since the onset of WoT, unfortunately, the US despite paying Pakistan from Collision Support Fund, never agreed to provide technologies required for effective operations against terrorists in FATA.

Pakistan was only supplied with second hand Cobra and few Mi-17s which were maintained in airworthy conditions by tireless efforts of Pakistani technicians. 

But Pakistan is not the only country where Mi-17 have met with accidents. The list of crash incident is quite long and include all major operator of this machine.


Latest Developments:

Pakistan Army has been looking for suitable attack and utility helicopter of Western origin. Pakistani delegations visited Turkey for number of times in this respect. Finally, Pakistan signed deal with Russian Federation directly. Fluid regional geopolitics played a key role in change of heart in Moscow; a key Indian ally. Ice began to break from President Musharraf's visit to Russia in 2005. After years of military diplomacy, despite attempts by India to prevent Russia from supplying Pakistan with latest military hardware, Pakistan Army leadership was able to convenience Moscow to sign a deal of supplying high tech Russian hardware directly to Islamabad. Pakistan signed a deal with Russia to procure Mi-35 Gunship helicopter, although Pakistan still seeking a replacement for Mi-17s. 

Mi-35 Gunship Helicopter

But now Pakistan is in position to acquire spare parts or new units to replace those destroyed in accidents. Chinese have made big stride in military hardware and China is producing Z-18 and Z-8 helicopters... But so far, Pakistan is only interested in Z-10 Gunships. 3 Z-10s are being evaluated by PAA.

In the long run, Pakistan will be best served to cooperate with China on a joint venture to produce a reliable utility helicopter in medium weight category. For short to medium term, Pakistan must enhance strategic cooperation with Russia to get latest version of Mi-17 and local maintenance facility. Pakistan Army is in desperate need of both utility and gunship helicopter and in given geopolitical scenario of the region and improvement in Pakistan's economy, Russian machines are feasible to acquire both politically and financially.

ANALYSIS: Indradanush IV - Joint IAF- RAF Exercise

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

The British Royal Air Force's Eurofighter Typhoon and Indian Air Force's Sukhoi Su-30MKI ‘Flankers’ came face to face during a successful major exercise, Indradanush, in UK. This was the 4th round of the exercise which first held in  India in October 2006. Last visit of IAF's Su-30MKIs was in 2007 when 6 of the IAF Su-30MKIs along with one IL-78 tanker were hosted by 25 Squadron of RAF based in Leeming.

In the latest edition of the exercise, which concluded on July 30th, IAF dispatched 4 MKIs from 2 Sqn ("Winged Arrows") based at Tezpur near India’s frontier with China. RAF Typhoon squadrons from RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire represented RAF in the exercise.

Intensive flying operations from both IAF and RAF against each other was major highlight of the exercise.  According to Aviation Week, 10 IAF crews including 15 pilots and 5 weapon systems operators flew twice daily missions, often flying all four Su-30s on air-to-air training missions flying beyond visual range (BVR) and within visual range (WVR) engagements with the Typhoon.

The Flanker pilots were also deployed the thrust-vectoring control (TVC) “super-maneuverability” capability. For RAF pilots, this was something new and exciting. “This is fantastic. It’s the first time I’ve flown against a Flanker this morning and it’s fascinating to see another air force do its thing in a different aeroplane. Flying against an aircraft which is equally comparable to the Typhoon isn’t something we get to fight against on a regular basis in the UK.", Typhoon pilot Flight Lieutenant Mike Highmoor spoke shortly after his first encounter with the TVC equipped Su-30. 

Indian pilots used the yaw capability of the TVC to remain inside the tight turn radius of the Typhoon in order to keep the Typhoon in missile launch parameters, as reported by Aviation Week. It was also reported that RAF pilots also flew in rear cockpit seats of MKIs to get maximum experience of its flight profile.

According to RAF's Wg. Cmdr. Chris Moon, CO 3 (Fighter) Sqn, which led the exercise, said that the exercise was advanced in “crawl, walk, run approach” meaning the pilots from both the air forces were put in complex scenarios in a gradual manner. MKIs took on the Typhoons in 1vs1, 2vs1 and increasingly complex engagements.  During the last phase of exercise,  mission saw all four Flankers working with six Typhoons to escort and support two C-130J Hercules on a para-dropping mission. They were opposed by 8-10 red-air Typhoons.

The exercise also saw the use of an Indian C-17 and an Il-78 tanker aircraft. 

ANALYSIS:

The ultimate aim of every exercise is to mitigate the potential threats and Indradanush is no exception in that regard. RAF's Typhoon has physical characteristics similar to Chinese J-10 (Canards, Delta Wings) while IAF's SU-30MKI is undoubtedly the most advanced version of Russian Flanker fighters sans SU-35. RAF pilots witnessed the employment of Russian TVC technology in both complex BVR and WVR scenarios.

Keeping in mind the prevailing geopolitical tensions between China-India and Russia-NATO, this particular exercise offered huge learning curve for the fighter pilots of both the air forces to understand and study their opponents. The experience gained in this exercise is going to play a critical role for both the forces in mitigating very peculiar types of threats. i.e. J-10 for IAF, Russian Flanker for RAF.
 

Chinese Artificial Islands: Advantages and Vulnerbilities

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

This is the artificial island in South China Sea recently built by China as part of her land reclamation project. This Chinese project has sparked a heated debate in global strategic community. South China Sea is among the most volatile maritime strategic hot spots in Indian Ocean. This particular island is located in disputed territory of South China Sea and this is why there is so much debate going on about this Chinese military project. Recently, A US Navy P-8A flew over the island and captured some very detailed pictures proving that Chinese have put their construction work on the island in the next phase. A bitter exchange of words took place between P8-A crew and Chinese Navy while US Navy plane carried out reconnaissance mission revealing details of Chinese mysterious artificial military island. After the incident, Chinese official declared the US flight as an action threatening peace in South Asia Sea. But latest media reports suggest that this was not the last such events where Chinese disapproved the US spying on her island. Australian Navy is planning a 'freedom of navigation' mission to show its disapproval of Chinese project. Australia is a US ally in Asia-Pacific Pivot strategy announced by President Obama in 2010-11.

Detailed photograph taken by the US Navy P-8A shows construction work on Chinese artificial island.

Latest, reports suggest that China has put weapons on the island. After these reports, there is a broad consensus among global security experts, that tensions over the South China Sea are set to escalate even further. As Chinese have shown their dissatisfaction over US spying its artificial island, the US defense secretary has defended the US spy plane flights over Chinese island. "There should be no mistake in this, the United State will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows", said Ash Carter, US defense secretary.

Chinese military buildup has been among the most visible geopolitical trends in last 15 years. This military buildup is translation of growing Chinese economic strength. Latest reports suggest that IMF has approved Chinese Yuan as a next global reserve currency along with US Dollar, EU Euro and Japanese Yen. This economic and military rise of China is the most vivid proof of global shift of power from the west to east. But problem with such power shift is that they are seldom peaceful and considering the high stakes of both the US and China in South China Sea, many security experts around the world consider that a war between both these powers is inevitable. 

Chinese Navy and Air Force are adopting aggressive policy as Beijing is looking to expand is capability to project power away from mainland China. Recently, Russia and China concluded naval exercises in Mediterranean Sea sending clear signal to NATO about the emergence of multi-polar world order.

There is no doubt that artificial island is a major step forward in Chinese strategy to project maritime power in South China Sea. Some experts have declared the island a non-sinkable Chinese aircraft carrier which is going to pose serious challenge to the US and allied maritime vessels in the region. But is Chinese strategy to build artificial islands in South China Sea going to yield the strategic results as Beijing has envisioned them?

Analysis:   

This Chinese artificial island is not the only project of its kind in the region. Previously, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippine have carried out similar projects in their respective waters, but problem with the Chinese project is that it is located in disputed waters where number of regional countries have claims over these waters. It makes this artificial island base a dangerous proposition to begin with.

Apart from that there is a question of building a naval island and coping with its vulnerabilities due to modern ballistic missile threats.

China is following the US footsteps as far as its island maritime strategy is concerned. During and after the World War II, the US established naval bases and stations on islands across the world. The islands like Midway Atoll and Diego Garcia provide strategic footprint to the US Navy in Pacific and Indian Ocean.  Though these islands are invaluable assets for the projection of maritime power and provide operational freedom for US Navy away from its own sea shores as they extend the line of sight for the US Navy due to radar stations and observational posts established on these islands. But at the same time, these islands can very easily become the operational nightmare due to their natural geographic vulnerability in open seas.

There is already a debate is going on within the US national security council about rising precision strike capabilities of Chinese Navy and threat it poses to the US bases in Indian Ocean and the Pacific. In 2014, Carnes Lord and Andrew S Erickson, both professors at US Naval War College, penned “Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific” which presented a case study about vulnerabilities of US naval basing in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

“American seapower requires a robust constellation of bases to support global power projection. Given the rise of China and the emergence of the Asia-Pacific as the center of global economic growth and strategic contention, nowhere is American basing access more important than in this region. Yet manifold political and military challenges, stemming not least of which from rapidly-improving Chinese long-range precision strike capabilities, complicate the future of American access and security here.”, says the writers.

The advent of guided missile technology and advancements in ballistic missiles submarines in naval warfare after the World War II changed the entire complexion of forward bases on these islands and their security. In any war scenario, such islands would naturally become the first target of enemy naval fleets and respective aviation wing. Today, both the US and Chinese Navies operate ballistic missiles which can literally remove such advanced naval bases from the face of the planet along with everyone and everything on the islands. In this backdrop, it would be natural to ask if this artificial Chinese island is going to be a strategic asset to PLAN or its biggest vulnerability in case of actual conflict?   

J-11D: China continues to improve its Flankers family

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

Secrecy always remains the hallmark of Chinese military programs especially the military aviation projects. Since 2004, when Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) first introduced the Chinese version of Soviet Sukhoi SU-27, as J-11B, this military program has been an intriguingly attractive for military experts around the world. So far, SAC has introduced various versions of Chinese flanker program. Latest addition to the family is J-11D. Prior to this, J-15 (carrier born version) and J-16 (strike version) were introduced. J-11D is yet another proof that Chinese have not done looking into their own flankers family for the room of further improvements.

As mentioned earlier Chinese remain highly secretive about their military aviation projects, any information reaches to open-source domain is through online Chinese military forums.  According to internet forums, J-11D is further development of J-11B with focus on integration of modern technologies built by Chinese firms like Advanced Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, composite metals and radar absorbing materials along with capabilities to carry latest Chinese built Air to Air missiles. J-11D would carry PL-10 WVR AAM and PL-15 BVR AAM. PL-15 is the latest addition in Chinese long range AAM which has become new principle BVR weapon on board PLAN/PLAF aircraft. The missile has a range in proximity of 100 Km and incorporate new duplex datalink and new active/passive dual mode seeker with enhanced ECCM capabilityApart from this, the under wing weapon stations have been increased from 2 (in J-11B) to 3 (in J-11D).Its forward IRST/LR appears to have been offset to the starboard side of the windshield, suggesting an IFR probe was installed on the port side, an arrangement similar to that of J-15.

WS-10B Block II has been sighted as the future power plant for J-11D. Chinese sources also hint that some earlier J-11B would also be converted into J-11D. As per IHS Janes, This variant also reportedly features a news indigenous full authority digital engine control (FADEC) system to improve the performance. Janes also mentioned, a new glass cockpit and electronic war suit for this latest incarnation of Chinese flankers.

Compared to Su-16, J-11D is smaller in size but Its radar, EW systems, FBW systems, and communications equipment are the same as those aboard the Shenyang J-16. First flight of J-11D prototype D1101 took place on 29 April 2015. 

Indian Guided Missile Destroyers and Balance of Maritime Power in Arabian Sea

By Shahzad Masood Roomi

In every modern naval fleet, destroyers play critical role due to their versatility, agility, fire power and longer reach. Introduced at the beginnings of 20^th century as Torpedo Boat Destroyers" (TBD) were "large, swift, and powerfully armed torpedo boats designed to destroy other torpedo boats. After Russio-Japanese War, destroyers began to evolve as true long range mutli-mission ships. 

Two World Wars during the last century played a critical role in evolution of destroyers. Aerial threat and advanced German U-boats, emerged as a nightmare for the Allied navies. This forced naval engineers and ship designers to come with the new designs of destroyers giving it capability against these two new threats. They were fitted with new anti-aircraft guns, radar, and forward-launched ASW weapons, in addition to their existing light guns, depth charges, and torpedoes. 

After the World War II, the advent of guided missile was a major advancement in maritime warfare allowing the destroyers to expand their combatant roles and taking over the missions previously fulfilled by much larger ships i.e. battleships and cruisers. This expansion of operational capability of destroyers, for the first time, allowed them to perform independent operations as well. 

Today, only few nations have the capability to design, build and commission guided missile destroyers. The operational orbit of destroyer today, includes land attacks and strike missions (through cruise missiles), fleet defense against aerial threats (through on board long range radars and SAM system), anti-submarine (through torpedo) and anti-ship operations (through anti-ship missiles). Earlier generation of naval destroyers were not multi-mission capable. They were either fleet air defense ship or ballistic missile ship. County Class of UK and Kashin Class of USSR, introduced in 1958-60, were basically air defense destroyer designs.

As the miniaturization of nuclear war-heads has turned cruise missiles into nuclear cruise missiles, guided missile destroyers have emerged as supplementary platform for any nation’s nuclear triad strengthening its 2^nd strike capability.

Along with the evolution of missiles, radars and onboard sensors of a destroyer, the missile launchers have evolved as well. From early single and twin arm launchers (MK 13 & MK 11) to modern Vertical Launch System (MK 41 VLS), this evolution of launchers has enabled the modern ships to carry a lot more guided missiles (both SAM and SSM) in the form of a missile magazine.

Despite all their multi mission nature, fact remains that destroyers due to their larger size can be detected by enemy submarines and Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). In order to overcome this intrinsic shortcoming of destroyers, stealth factor was introduced in the design philosophy of the destroyers.

Indian Navy's Modern Guided Missile Destroyers:

Today, Indian Navy is operating 'Rajput' class (5000 tons), 'Delhi' class (6700 tons) and Kolkata Class (7400 tons) guided missile destroyers along with number of guided missile frigates. First two classes of ships are of conventional design and offer very little to no capability to evade enemy ships tracking them in open sea. Rajput Class destroyers (INS Rajput, INS Rana, INS Ranjit, INS Ranvir, INS Ranvijay) are Russian built. In late 1970s, after scrapping British built R Class and Hunt Class destroyers, the Indian Navy initiated ‘Project-15’ to design and build indigenous destroyers later to be known as 'Delhi' Class. The project was executed by Mazagon Dockyard Limited (MDL). It took some 20 years for MDL to deliver first ship (INS Delhi) to Indian Navy for commissioning in 1997. Subsequently two more ships (INS Mysore and INS Mumbai) were built and commissioned in Indian Navy in 1999 and 2001 respectively. Having influences of both Soviet and Western ships, Delhi class can operate in complete Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) environment. The ship is equipped with Kh-35 'Switchblade' anti-ship missiles (Range 130 Km) and its air defense system is being upgraded with Israeli Barak-1 SAM system (Range 32 Km).

As a fellow up of the Delhi class, Indian Navy in May 2000, MDL began work on Project-15A. This was the evolution for Indian shipbuilding industry and major aspect of new project was inclusion of stealth features in the ship design. While pursuing that, more than 2000 modifications were made in Delhi class design. After these modifications, a new class of Indian destroyers (Kolkata Class) emerged. Kolkata class incorporated the latest technologies in sensors, weapons and navigation controls of the ship. Main weapon is Indo-Russian supersonic BrahMos cruise missile (2 x 8 cells). In air defense role, the ship would be fitted with Israeli made Barak-8 SAM system (Range 70 Km). 32 of these missiles would be carried in VLS launch magazine. Israel also provided main sensors and processing systems for this class of ship. The first of Kolkata class was commissioned in August 2014. The remaining two - Kochi and Chennai - are expected to join service by early 2016. Right now, Kolkata class destroyers are the biggest destroyer ships designed and built in India.

Just like Delhi class, Kolkata class also has a follow on design project known as ‘Project 15-B’ or Vishakhapatnam Class. MDL launched INS Vishakhapatnam, the first of four 7,300 tons Project 15B guided missile destroyers being built for the Indian Navy (IN), in Mumbai on 20^th April. IN officials said it would be commissioned in July 2018 and delivery of the three follow-on platforms at two year intervals will be completed by 2024 at an overall cost of INR 293.40 billion (USD4.89 billion).

Key differences of Project 15A and Project 15B include the relocation of its sonar to the bow from the hull; the design of its mast, which houses its main radar, has also been revised to further reduce its radar cross section.

Other changes include reshaping of the hull to accentuate its stealth features and the addition of a rail-less helicopter traversing system.

• According to IN, INS Vishakhapatnam would be fitted with the IAI-Elta-designed EL/M-2248 Multi-Function Surveillance Threat Alert Radar (MF-STAR) to provide guidance to 32 Barak-8/NG air-defense missiles.

• The destroyer will also be fitted with IAI-Elta EL/M-2238 S-band (2 to 4 GHz) 3-D volume air surveillance radar (STAR) radar and a Thales LW-08 D-band air search radar.

• INS Vishakhapatnam 's principal weapon will be 16 BrahMos anti-ship/ land attack cruise missiles, co-developed by the DRDO and Russia.

• The ship's anti-submarine warfare capability includes twin-tube launchers and RBU-6000 SMERCH-2 rocket launchers

• A license-built 76 mm Oto Melara Super Rapid Gun, four Russian AK-630 close-in weapon systems and a 127 mm main gun, which is still under negotiation.
  
  
• It can also carry two multiple-role helicopters (e.g., Sea King or HAL Dhruv helicopters).
  
  
• Total Atmosphere Control (TAC) System; this system will enable the crew to operate the ship in regions of  NBC fall out.

According to Asian Defense military blog, "In its quest to become a powerful three-dimensional blue-water force and maintain a fleet of around 140 "surface and sub-surface combatants", the Navy already has 30 warships and six submarines on order in various Indian shipyards."

Apart from this buildup of guided missile destroyers, Indian Navy is pursuing an ambitious $16 billion USD plan to modernize its surface and sub-surface fleets. Project-17 is yet another ambitious project to build 6,000 tons stealth frigates.

According to Chietigj Bajpaee, an Indian defense analyst, Indian has ambitious plans for the development of a 160-plus ship navy, comprising three aircraft carrier battle groups by 2022. More than 40 warships and submarines are on order or under construction at the country's three major shipyards. These include stealth destroyers, anti-submarine corvettes and stealth frigates. These vessels will supplement and in some cases replace the country's older destroyers. 

According to some estimates, Currently, Indian Navy is the world’s fifth largest maritime force but it would take 3rd position, after China and US, within the next 15 years when Indian Navy would eventually complete its modernization.

Indian security establishment and strategic community consider the rise of India’s trade through sea as the primary driving force behind this ambitious modernization as Bajpaee put it in his interview.

But for a more objective analysis of this ambitious Indian naval modernization, the prevailing bitter truths of regional geopolitics like traditional rivalries between the countries like China-Japan maritime tension, India-Pakistan, India-China energy competition and China-US standoff over Taiwan, cannot be overlooked. These geopolitical realities have reshaped the Asian security architecture for the 21^st century, where arms race, increased defense spending and a desire for ubiquitous military presence in the Indian Ocean are dominant trends.

The strategic maritime competition between China and the US in the South China Sea is the biggest driver behind the Indian naval ambitions. As an indirect consequence of this strategic competition and Indian counter-strategy to it, the maritime balance of power in Arabian Sea between Pakistani and Indian naval forces is rapidly tipping in favor of India; thus creating serious maritime security concerns for regional stability and Pakistan’s seawards defenses.    

Implication of Indian Naval Expansion for the Maritime Power of Balance in Arabian Sea:

By looking at the design philosophy of Indian naval fleet, it becomes evident that Indian Navy is preparing for complete NBC/ WMDs scenarios. The pursuance of nuclear triad remains the ultimate long term objective in Indian strategic thinking to deter Chinese military modernization and expanding influence in the Indian Ocean.

In this strategic milieu, the inclusion of stealth guided missile destroyers would further this growing maritime disparity between Pakistan and India. A scenario involving multiple Indian navy ships, armed with dozens of nuclear armed missiles, would be no less than a nightmare for small Pakistan Navy.  

Even we take nuclear WMDs out of the picture, the conventional arsenal of IN poses serious challenge to Pakistani naval installations and other industrial targets. 

Indian Threat & State of Pakistan Navy:

The establishment of NSFC, back in May 2012, was perceived as Pakistan's announcement of existence of country's maritime strategic deterrence in form of a nuclear submarine project. Back in 2012, ISPR issued its press release which read, "The force, which is the custodian of the nation's 2nd strike capability, will strengthen Pakistan's policy of credible minimum deterrence and ensure regional stability.” This statement cemented the impression further that Pakistan having nuclear submarine program. It has been three years since the NSFC was established but still Pakistan's surface fleet remains precariously exposed to Indian Navy's overwhelming technical and numerical superiority in Arabian Sea. Nation is still looking towards the strategic decision makers and security managers to put Pakistan's 2nd strike capability in operational state in order to give PN much needed deterrence capability.   

PN currently does not operate any single ship armed with long range land attack cruise missile to give it a true guided missile capability. Although, the Ex-Type 21 ships (Tariq Class) acquired from the UK in 1993-94 are classified as destroyers in PN but fact remains that these ships were built as frigates originally. These PN Ships were rearmed with American and Chinese anti-ship missiles (Harpoon and C-802). But Harpoons do not give any advantage to Pakistan Navy as Indian Navy has also acquired Harpoon Block II missiles (Range 130 Km) for its latest P-8I MPA aircraft.

But Pakistan's maritime security worries in context of Indian naval modernization do not end there; PN's sub-surface fleet, which can provide a considerable deterrence and sea-denial capabilities against enemy's overwhelmingly larger surface fleet is also precariously out numbered.

PN currently has only 5 conventional submarines (3 Agosta 90-B and 2 Agosta-70) and 2 Agosta-70s have reached their retirement age. Since 2010, PN has been looking for various options to strengthen its submarine fleet but so far no confirmed deal has been signed. Latest news suggest that PN may eventually acquire Chinese made conventional diesel submarines. Originally, PN requires 12 submarines. This requirement was laid out in Armed Forces Development Plan (AFDP) 2015. It is high time for PN to expedite the acquisition process. Apart from getting Chinese submarines, Pakistan is also looking for surplus Western subs. In this pursuit, Turkey can provide Pakistan with German Type-209 submarines which it wanted to modernize but then went for latest Type-214.

Pakistan also needs to increase the strength of its surface fleet. News is that PN is considering to acquire 4 more F-22P type frigates. Pakistan must look at the potential acquisition of Chinese destroyers. Chinese platforms would allow Pakistan to integrate Pakistani cruise missile Babur on them giving Pakistan the deterrence against the maritime threats from India.

Redefining Maritime Minimum Credible Deterrence: 

Pakistan Navy cannot match its Indian counterpart one to one basis neither it is required keeping in minds the size of Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and coastline length. But then there is a third and more relevant factor in this equation of indo-Pak maritime power projection which PN will has to balance. The third factor is growing expeditionary nature of Indian Naval modernization. Evidently, Indian Navy is seeking to build ‘army maneuver through sea’ capability in joint ops doctrine with Indian Army. Minimum credible deterrence threshold for maritime arena, in Arabian Sea, will have to be redefined by PN. The share of Pakistan Navy in annual defense allocation must also be redefined as per this reevaluated minimum credible deterrence parameters in maritime power projection. Acquisition of more F-22P frigates and some Chinese built destroyers would become the eventual consequence of any such reevaluation. PN will have to become a capable brown water navy with limited expeditionary capabilities. 

Seeking Self-Reliance:

Pakistan Navy needs to take a page from Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) success in self-reliance in ship building. Just like PAF’s JF-17 Thunder, PN needs to initiate a joint venture with China or Turkey to design and build indigenous destroyer. Pakistan must become a player in the geopolitical game being played in Indian Ocean rather than being a pawn. Building a strong ship building industry is also vital for Pakistan from pure economic perspective. It can attract foreign customer and earn foreign reserve.    

But this is a mid to long term plan.  For now, the most realistic option for Pakistan would be to concentrate on enhancing two basic maritime capabilities against the Indian Navy's surface fleet at war footings i.e.  Sea denial and Coastal defense.  

Sea Denial:

For rapid sea denial, what Pakistan Navy can do is to concentrate on aerial operations capabilities in open Ocean and raise the number of missile boats in surface fleet. Pakistan Air Force has already expanded the operational orbit of JF-17 with integrating CM-400AKG hyper-sonic anti-ship missiles. Both PAF and PN must expedite the deliveries of these planes to PN. According to media reports, PN is interested in 30 JF-17s to raise 2 squadrons. Air launched version of C-802 anti-ship missile is also being integrated on Thunders, Keeping in mind the size of Mig-29K and Su-30MKI fleet of Indian Navy, Pakistan Navy must revised its requirement for JF-17s to 60-70 to raise minimum 4 squadrons. How these aircraft integrate with existing fleet of Pakistan naval aviation wing would determine their effectiveness during the actual air-sea battle. 

Coastal Defense:

For coastal defense, Pakistan has built fast missile boats, these small boats can prove invaluable defense against growing numbers of Indian guided missile destroyer fleet. These boats are easier to build and maintain with minimum resources and time. Media reports suggest that Pakistan has increased its requirement of Azmat class Fast Attack Craft (FAC) to 8 from current strength of 2. It will help in coastal defense but due to their limited green water capabilities (shorter range, lower displacement) they cannot perform sea denial operations in open sea far from coast line but these ships (each armed with 8 C-802) are inarguably the best option for coastal defense. 

It will be only prudent to remind once again what renowned American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan once said about the Indian Ocean and its importance in the 21st century when global trade has made this Ocean strategically the most important geography on the globe. 

‘Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will dominate Asia, the destiny of the world will be decided on its waters.’