Pakistan media is buzzed with the news that Gen. Raheel Shareef, COAS Pakistan Army, has been asked by the Saudi led 34 countries alliance to become its commander in-chief after his retirement which is due November later this year. Source of information according to Daily The News International is "US military and political sources."
The 34-country alliance was formed by the Saudi Arabia in December 2015. Pakistan was included in the member states but ironically at that time both civilian and military leadership showed its estrangement over Pakistan's inclusion in the alliance without proper negotiation or agreement. The alliance's objective was to crush transnational terrorism within the member states using a more military oriented approach. The alliance was announced by Saudi Defense Minister, Muhemmed Bin Salman.
Within Pakistani intelligentsia, the formation of this alliance and Pakistan's inclusion was criticized because of absence of Iran in this alliance and in the analysis its formation was deemed more sectarian in nature than anything else.
Before that, Saudi Arabia seek Pakistan's cooperation in Yemen war against Houthis but Pakistan took a neutral discourse and engaged both Iran and Saudi Arabia for solving the crisis through peaceful means. Saudi Arabia and many of its allies accused Iran for supporting Houthis in Yemen who overthrew a pro-Riyadh regime in 2015. Saudi Arabia launched military attack against Houthis after their leader threatened to attack the larger Kingdom and not stopping at Macca but reaching Riyadh. Pakistani government and military leadership was under tremendous pressure to be part of Saudi led coalition but Pakistan took a neutral stand on this issue and didn't send troops partly, sighting severe sectarian backlash and partly due to the fact that Pakistan Army is no position to become part of any overseas conflict due to on going operation Zarb e Azb in the country.
Now, the sources who have broken this news about Gen Raheel are also saying that Pakistan’s military leadership’s neutral policy towards Saudi Arabia and Iran would remain intact and this office would not cause any change in policies of the Pakistani military.
ANALYSIS:
Right now, it is not clear if this news is true or not in the first place. Even if it is true by any means accepting this request will not be easy for Pakistani COAS.
Clearly, the views about this alliance are divided in Pakistan. This explains why Gen Raheel has been asked to take the seat after his retirement from Pakistan Army as he will be free to decide.
There are number of issues with this offer anyways.
1. It is not clear how this alliance will be able to play any effective role without inclusion of Iran as population in almost every Islamic country is divided into both Shia and Sunni.
2. The biggest caveat to the entire idea of this alliance is its mandate to operate. How will it decide its missions. Will it work within the UN Security Council framework, where not a single Muslim country has permanent representation, or it will conduct its operation on regional level without UN oversight? Both scenario can spiral out into a complex foreign policy disaster.
3. How this alliance will work in situation like India Pakistan rivalry? So far, its mandate has been limited to anti-terrorist operations but will it able to conduct operations against Indian proxy elements who are operating from Afghanistan against Pakistan?
4. How much control Gen Raheel or any other commander for that matter will have on the strategic decision making of the alliance? Which body will oversight it politically? OIC cannot do that without making it all Islamic counties military alliance.
All these questions will have to be addressed to make this alliance effective. This alliance must be formed on the basis of NATO with strong political backing of all the member states otherwise it will be just a glorified police force. As far as Gen Raheel is concerned, as an individual he can choose whatever he deem fit after his retirement. But with all these questions hanging over his conscience, it will not be an easy offer to accept.
Right now, Gen Raheel is in Saudi Arabia attending the conclusion ceremony of North Thunder Exercise along with Pakistani prime minster Nawaz Sharif.
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